SHARES in easyJet rose 11.4 percent on Monday after the budget airline agreed in principle to a £5.5 billion ($7.34 billion) takeover from Castlelake over the weekend but were under the bid price as investors worried the deal might struggle to secure approval.
EasyJet said on Sunday it was prepared to accept US investment firm Castlelake’s sweetened bid of £6.90 apiece, potentially ending lengthy negotiations and reshaping Europe’s aviation industry.
The bid was a nearly 24-percent premium to easyJet’s close on Friday, and around the £7 price some investors were reportedly holding out for after four previous Castlelake proposals were rejected.
EasyJet, which rose to as much as £6.22 on Monday, was up 9.7 percent at £6.12 as of 0748 GMT.
A shareholder who declined to be named noted that current levels indicated the market was pricing a more than 30-percent probability of the deal falling through.
Still, the stock has gained more than 50 percent since Castlelake’s interest became public in late May.
The potential take-private deal, which also includes a partial equity alternative, comes when airlines are grappling with sharply higher fuel prices and margin pressure linked to the Iran conflict.
JPMorgan analysts raised concerns about how aviation-focused lender Castlelake and easyJet would meet European Union ownership requirements and agree on a structure, with founder and controlling shareholder Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s views also unclear.
EasyJet said on Sunday that Castlelake had agreed to a “best endeavors” commitment to obtain regulatory clearances.
Haji-Ioannou declined to comment on Monday.
Castlelake has previously said it would own 49 percent of the bidding vehicle with the remainder held by two European Union (EU) nationals, former easyJet chief operating officer Peter Bellew, and senior industry executive Mark Breen.
EU regulations require airlines operating in the bloc to be majority-owned and controlled by EU nationals.
JPMorgan also noted that approval from shareholders was not guaranteed with prospects of a counter bid also open, or other carriers looking to buy parts of easyJet.
“While a decent premium to the lacklustre trading of recent years, it still represents a deep discount to the share price of the late 2010s, a sign of how in need easyJet is for someone to take the controls and plot a more successful flight path,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG.
Castlelake must formalize its offer by Aug. 3 or walk away under British takeover rules.
