The El Nino phenomenon may return later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to new record highs in 2026 or 2027.
PARIS: The warming El Nino weather phenomenon could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 50% to 60% chance of El Nino developing during the July-September period and beyond.
The World Meteorological Organization is set to issue an update on El Nino on Tuesday.
El Nino and its cooler sister La Nina are two phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Peruvian and Ecuadoran fishermen coined the term El Nino in the 19th century for the arrival of an unusually warm ocean current off the coast that reduced their catch just before Christmas.
El Nino can weaken consistent trade winds that blow east to west across the tropical Pacific, warming the usually cooler central and eastern sides of the ocean.
The extra heat at the surface of the Pacific releases energy into the atmosphere that can temporarily drive up global temperatures, which is why El Nino years are often among the warmest on record.
“All else being equal, a typical El Nino event tends to cause a temporary increase in the global mean temperature on the order of 0.1C-0.2C,” Nat Johnson, an NOAA meteorologist, told AFP.
The last El Nino occurred in 2023-2024, contributing to making 2023 the second highest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, told AFP in January that 2026 could be “another record-breaking year” if El Nino appears this year.
However, climate scientist Tido Semmler from Ireland’s National Meteorological Service noted that El Nino’s impact would be higher in 2027 than in 2026 if it develops in the second half of this year.
“It takes time for the global atmosphere to react to the El Nino,” he said.
“Having said this, there is a risk of 2026 being the warmest year on record even without El Nino, due to the global warming trend,” Semmler told AFP.
The latest La Nina episode was relatively weak and short lived, starting in December 2024 and due to enter a neutral phase during the February-April period.
La Nina did not stop 2025 from being the third hottest on record.
The NOAA adopted in February a new way of determining El Nino and La Nina events, moving from the old Oceanic Nino Index to the new Relative Oceanic Nino Index.
The NOAA said RONI is a “clearer, more reliable way” to track El Nino and La Nina in real time.
