El Nino, which is driving up temperatures globally, will surge India’s power demand with an estimation that it could result in nearly 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional coal burn within a year, according to new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Not only will the falling winds and rainfall associated with El Nino cut the country’s power generation from turbines and hydropower, but the warmer temperatures will also drive up demand for power-hungry air conditioning. Additional cooling demand could total as much as 10 TWh within a year — the equivalent of a quarter of Delhi’s annual electricity use, the analysis underscored.
“India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Nino will raise the stakes again — putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming. India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably,” said Nandikesh Sivalingam, Director, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA)
With El Nino occurring every two to seven years, the extent to which India can meet or exceed its solar and storage deployment targets is the key metric for grid resilience. Solar generation is also far less affected by El Nino, meaning that every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns like this one.
India added 44.6 GW of solar power last year, almost double the year before. “In 2025, total electricity generation rose by one percent, yet coal generation fell by four percent while renewable output grew by 22%. The trend has held into 2026 – with thermal generation between January and May staying below its 2024 level even as demand hit a record and solar generation jumped by almost a third,” the analysis said.
CREA said that increased dependence on coal would come at a significant environmental and public health cost, leading to higher air pollution and intensifying the impacts of extreme heat.
