Next year is forecast to be the UK’s hottest on record due to an “unprecedented” El Nino event, the Met Office has warned.
The summer of 2026 was declared to be the UK’s hottest since records began, but the El Nino is forecast to continue raise sea temperatures, with the Met Office warning it would make the weather event “the largest since the 19th century”.
El Nino is a phenomenon linked to climate change that is declared when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The weather pattern usually takes place every two to seven years and lasts several months and impacts rainfall and average temperatures across the globe.
This year’s El Nino is “very strong” and is strengthening, with live monitors revealing the sea temperature has risen by 0.5C in the past four weeks alone to +3.3C — an increase from +2.8C on September 9.
As of October 7, it has caused sea temperatures to sit above 0.5C for 26 weeks.
For context, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals that in September this year temperatures were recorded at +3.39C, while in 2015 they were +1.80C and in 1997 they were +2.38C.
Global heat maps show extreme heat forming in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.
But there are also pockets of warmer sea temperatures surrounding the south of the UK and parts of the North Sea.
Experts have suggested the weather in the UK will not change drastically, but “the price of coffee and chocolate, the cost of reinsurance, the timing of Asian shipping, and the odds that 2027 sets a global temperature record” will all impact the UK and Europe, according to NOAA.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said.
A typical El Nino leads to a sea temperature rise of between 1-2C, with 2C being a “really big event”, Mr Scaife said, noting that it had already surpassed the expected rise of +3C.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Mr Scaife added: “I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before. And assuming the forecasts are correct – and many other centres are giving the same signals – then we’re expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3C.
“That is unheard of in modern climate records.”
The UK is also forecast to experience more storms and rain over the coming autumn and winter due to the El Nino weather pattern.
Mr Scaife explained that the impacts of the weather phenomenon are strongest in the tropics, in regions like South America and the West Pacific.
“And then there are wave-like disturbances that come out from the tropics and affect places like the UK,” he said.
“So we already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time.”
Water supplies have been significantly impacted by record breaking temperatures this summer leaving reservoirs depleted.
Water companies have now been told to conduct daily monitoring of reservoir and river levels and the Environment Agency will increase checks on businesses that withdraw water from natural sources to ensure they are only taking permitted quantities of water.
The announcement was made by the Environment Agency following a meeting of the National Drought Group and declared parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex are in severe drought.
Rainfall was 80 per cent lower than average in September in some areas raising the threat of dwindling water supplies.
In August, 71.3 per cent of England was in drought, while the North East and Yorkshire was under a “prolonged dry weather” status.
Yorkshire joined ten other regions in England currently in drought in October, leaving just the Northeast, Cumbria and Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire with prolonged dry weather status.
But as drought persists into autumn, research by the Environment Agency shows England needs 20 per cent more rainfall than average until the end of April for all of the areas to emerge from drought status.
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