Election expert explains why Reform UK’s support may have peaked despite local election gains

WorldPolitics
8 May 2026 • 11:37 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

Election expert explains why Reform UK’s support may have peaked despite local election gains

  • Nigel Farage has heralded "historic change in British politics" following Reform UK's local election results, suggesting the party is on course for a general election victory.
  • Reform UK has gained 645 councillors, while Labour lost 468 and the Conservatives lost 283, indicating a significant shift in local political landscapes.
  • The party has taken control of councils including Tameside, Hartlepool, Redditch, Tamworth, and Newcastle-under-Lyme, making gains in traditional Labour and Conservative heartlands.
  • Bookmakers William Hill have placed Reform UK at 10/11 odds to win the most seats in the next general election, reflecting their strong performance.
  • However, pollster Peter Kellner suggests Reform's support may have peaked, noting a decrease in their proportion of seats won compared to last year, which could impact their general election performance under the first-past-the-post system.

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