Time is not on Trump's side, what with a World Cup to host in less than three weeks and inflation that's fast erasing the sweetener of tax breaks for voters ahead of the November midterm elections. But if inflation's bad in the US, Iran has economic ruin to contend with. So again, who blinks first?
And how do regional players align? Gulf states are divided between hawks – led by the United Arab Emirates, who've drawn closer to Israel in this conflict – and doves, led by the Strait of Hormuz's other frontline state Oman.
So which is it: a deal, a return to war or permanent state of limbo over the world's biggest choke point for oil and gas?
Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Jean-Vincent Russo, Guillaume Gougeon, Charles Wente.
