THE Department of Agriculture (DA) on Friday said it was ramping up El Niño preparations given the likely impact on farm output and economic growth.
“It is no longer a question whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvest,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said in a statement.
“The only question that needs to be answered is its intensity,” he added.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Wednesday issued an El Niño alert, noting a 79-percent chance that the weather pattern, which is characterized by prolonged dry spells, below-normal rainfall and drought conditions, will develop between June and August and last until early 2027.
Tiu-Laurel ordered the DA’s Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to prepare for worst case scenarios, with support to come from the Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) and other units.
PhilRice Executive Director John de Leon said the probability of a moderate to strong El Niño had reached 92 percent and some global climate models pointed to a potential “super” El Niño.
De Leon said DA officials were reviewing rainfall projections and water availability to adjust planting strategies.
Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher Morales, who leads the Masagana program, said this could include shifting to less water-intensive crops, revising planting calendars, and rolling out more solar-powered irrigation systems to offset rising fuel and electricity costs.
The DA said it was also coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration, which is under the Office of the President, with regard to optimizing water allocations and ensuring that irrigation systems are ready for prolonged dry spells.
“The urgency is shaped by recent experience,” the DA said, referring to the 2023-2024 El Niño that caused severe droughts.
“In 2024, agricultural output declined by 2.2 percent, driven by a 4.2-percent drop in the crops sector, which accounts for 56 percent of total farm production. Rice and corn, the country’s staple crops, were among the hardest hit.”
The Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) also warned that El Niño could cause substantial rice losses and worsen hardship among farmers.
“Even though El Niño has not yet fully hit, farmers are already feeling its effects — the land is dry, yields are decreasing, and production is suffering losses,” KMP Secretary General Ronnie Manalo said.
“If El Niño intensifies in the coming months, we will face a more widespread decline in production. The rice supply and the livelihoods of millions of farmers will be directly affected. Consumers and citizens will also be affected.”
The KMP claimed that systemic issues, particularly inadequate irrigation systems, were exacerbating the crisis.
It called for urgent government intervention, including direct subsidies for irrigation and fuel, distribution of free climate-resilient seeds, and immediate financial assistance for affected farmers.
The government was also urged to shift from importation and instead strengthen local production and upgrade irrigation infrastructure.
