The risk of floods, drought and extreme heat is expected to intensify as forecasters warn it is almost certain that this year's El Nino will develop into a very strong event in the coming months.
Forecasts from the the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) global network of climate centres expects the El Nino to peak towards the end of this year, with impacts from the weather phenomenon likely to continue well into next year.
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, WMO secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned it has “the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world”.
While some areas of the world will experience extreme heat and drought, others will battle increased rainfall and flooding.
Here, The Independent looks at how the UK could be impacted by this extreme weather event.
What is El Nino?
El Nino – which means “little boy” in Spanish – is a meteorological phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean get warmer.
It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts several months disrupting weather patterns worldwide and pushing up global temperatures.
The name comes from South American fishermen centuries ago, who noticed warmer-than-normal coastal conditions periodically around Christmas time and nicknamed it “El Nino” in reference to the birth of Jesus.
US meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the beginning of El Nino in June, saying it could last until spring 2027.
The previous El Nino event lasted around 12 months from June 2023 to May 2024.
What usually happens in an El Nino?
It usually causes a shift in weather patterns across the globe, such as soaring temperatures, heavy rainfall, storms, floods and droughts.
The extreme weather can devastate crop yields and ecosystems, drive health crises and cause major economic damage.
The last El Nino intensified global heat, drove severe droughts, heavy floods, widespread marine heatwaves and coral bleaching across the world. It also contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record globally.
However, this year it could be more intense, experts warn.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” Saulo said.
How will it impact the UK?
Maps show where the El Nino could force temperatures to rise and the areas that could see wetter weather.
While some countries will see more extreme weather than the UK, we could still see more storms and rain in autumn and winter.
It comes after the UK experienced a string of five-back-to-back heatwaves and shortage of rainfall over the summer, which pushed almost three-quarters (71.3 per cent) of England and all of Wales into drought.
This has put severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
The extreme weather may also put pressure on global food supply. Analysis from the Energy and Climate Unit (ECIU) found that countries that could be exposed to climate extremes were the source of 13 per cent of UK food imports.
That means food such as rice, for which India is the UKs biggest supplier and citrus fruits from South Africa and Peru, coffee from Brazil and tea from Kenya could all be impacted.
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