INDIA is set to start a fresh project to make conventional submarines, a first in more than two decades. A joint project between German company ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Mumbai-headquartered Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) is likely to be okayed in the next few weeks.
A cost of $8 billion is estimated to build six conventional submarines. These vessels run on a mix of diesel and electric power and will be fitted with the latest air-independent propulsion (AIP), a technology that allows a vessel to remain submerged under water for longer periods.
Once done, it will be the biggest military contract ever between the two countries. However, the project is moving into the next stage after a delay of more than 15 years. ‘Project 75-I’, its official name, was okayed in principle in 2010.
India’s other project to make conventional submarines was inked 21 years back, in 2005, when a deal was signed with DCNS — now called the Naval group — of France to make six Scorpene-class submarines in collaboration with the MDL.
The prevailing gaps
The six Scorpenes — christened as the Kalvari class in the Navy — have been delivered and a follow-on order for three more is in the pipeline. “The TKMS-MDL deal is in the final stages, and after that we can exercise the choice of getting additional Scorpenes,” a top Naval functionary told The Tribune.
For now, the Indian Navy is facing an acute shortage of submarines. The force has 16 conventional submarines. Other than the six Scorpenes, the rest are more than 30 years old. In 1999, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved a 30-year submarine construction plan targeting 24 conventional submarines by 2030 and going by the present pace, it does not seem to be fructifying.
Though no fresh project has been launched for conventional submarines in the last two decades, India commissioned three nuclear-powered and nuclear missile carrying submarines — classified as SSBN in Naval parlance — during this period. A fourth one is expected to be commissioned next year.
Vice Admiral Sanjay Mahindru (retd), former Deputy Chief of the Indian Navy, says, “Delayed acquisition has resulted in a self-created conventional submarine capability gap.” He suggests a two-track plan: “Have an immediate procurement through licensed production of a foreign partner while concurrently establishing an indigenous design programme.”
India’s conventional submarine fleet is now at the same numerical strength as it was in the late 1990s. Capt Sarabjeet S Parmar (retd), a former Naval officer and now a Distinguished Fellow, Council for Strategic and Defence Research (CSDR), says, “We are behind the curve, and in numbers, we are no better off than we were 21 years ago.”
China-Pak threat
China is helping Pakistan make eight Hangor-class submarines, all fitted with an AIP. The first such submarine, the PNS Hangor, was commissioned a couple of weeks ago. International think tank The Nuclear Threat Initiative says at least three of Pakistan Navy’s older subs, the Agosta-class, have been retro-fitted with the AIP technology.
A top Indian Navy official said, “We are keeping an eye on what Pakistan is doing.”
China’s own fleet of submarines, equipped with anti-ship missiles, makes the Indian Ocean progressively less secure. In April last year, a US Congress report, titled ‘China Naval Modernisation: Implications for US Navy Capabilities’, assessed that China had 69 submarines, 12 of which are nuclear powered.
Lack of learning
In the late 1980s, India had sourced four submarines from Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) of Germany. Two of these were made at MDL in 1992 and 1994, and the other two came from Germany.
In the 2010s, the MDL worked with Naval group of France to make the Scorpenes and now it’s back to working with TKMS of Germany. Vice Admiral Mahindru suggests the need to break the cycle of repeated Technology Transfer (ToT) reliance. “India must create a national submarine agency focused on absorbing and retaining technologies. The current naval and shipyards are not designed for this purpose.”
The way forward
New Delhi targets to have the first submarine of the Indo-German collaboration within seven years of signing a contract, which means the first vessel could be coming in by 2034-35 at the earliest. By then, the fleet will be under strain with ageing subs. “We need to accelerate the manufacturing timelines,” says Capt Parmar.
“New procurement like additional Scorpenes will take at least five to six years to materialise,” says Admiral Mahindru. As a stop-gap measure, the Navy is upgrading the older German HDW submarines — two of these vessels have been upgraded and two more are to follow. Also, a mid-life extension of the Russian-origin Kilo class submarines is being planned. Six of these are in the fleet.
The government has also okayed the making of two more subs which would be nuclear-powered, but not carry nuclear missiles — classified as SSN in Naval parlance. The targeted induction is around 2036. These are designed to carry heavy payloads, including upcoming hypersonic missiles, and would be powered by a 190-MW nuclear reactor and advanced stealth technologies.
Capt Parmar poses a question: “We make our own nuclear submarines, why can we not make our own indigenous conventional subs?”