PETALING JAYA: A survey by Ilham Centre found that 21 per cent of voters below the age of 30 remained undecided when fieldwork was conducted from Nov 1 to 12.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar projected Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) to lead in 24 of the state’s 28 constituencies, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) remained comfortably positioned in two of its traditional strongholds, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.
Ayer Keroh and Kesidang, two other constituencies previously held by PH, were classified as closely contested seats.
“Most respondents in this group indicated that they would make their decisions at the last minute, after evaluating and seeking information about the candidates and parties contesting the election,” Hisommudin said in a statement today.
He expects many of the undecided young voters to gravitate towards the blue wave.
Hisommudin said young Malay voters leaned towards BN-PN, while young Chinese voters remained more closely aligned with PH.
“Family influence remains a dominant factor in shaping young voters’ political choices, even when they perceive their voting decisions as independent,” he said.
He said young voters were also influenced by fear of missing out (FOMO), trend-following behaviour and viral political content, with the blue wave appearing more successful in attracting their attention during the campaign.
Hisommudin said young voters were generally more pragmatic, placing greater emphasis on “employment opportunities, income, the cost of living and basic amenities” than on political rhetoric.
However, he cautioned that current political preferences did not necessarily translate into lasting loyalty.
“Acceptance of government assistance and existing party preferences do not necessarily translate into lasting political loyalty,” he said.
The quantitative survey of 805 respondents recorded approval ratings of 86 per cent for Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh and 85 per cent for the state government.
Hisommudin attributed BN-PN’s projected lead to cooperation between the coalitions, their party machinery and state outreach programmes.
He also said 91 per cent of PN voters were willing to transfer their support to BN, compared with 78 per cent of BN voters who were willing to support PN.
The findings come ahead of Saturday’s state election, in which 79 candidates are contesting 28 seats, with 687,697 registered voters eligible to cast their ballots.
In the 2021 state election, BN won 21 seats, while PH secured five and PN two.
BN and PH had governed Melaka together since 2023, but BN is now cooperating with PN in the state election despite being part of the federal unity government with PH.
In July, PH withdrew its support for the Melaka state government following a dispute over a proposed constitutional amendment concerning nominated assemblymen.
