Farage’s by-election gamble is a last ditch attempt to save his dying dream of being prime minister

Politics
8 Jul 2026 • 2:28 AM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

Farage’s by-election gamble is a last ditch attempt to save his dying dream of being prime minister

Nigel Farage’s career has never been short of drama, and today he was back where he enjoys being most: the centre of the political stage.

In an extraordinary development, the Reform UK leader is putting all he has fought to achieve on the line by stepping down as an MP and calling a by-election in his Clacton constituency.

For the great political gambler it does seem to be a final roll of the dice, relying on his party still being high in the polls and his personal vote as a famous politician to win back the seat he – until a short time ago – held. He may be thinking “if it worked for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, it can work for me!”

In his lengthy speech – mostly a rant claiming the media and “establishment” are out to get him – Mr Farage admitted, as revealed by The Independent on Sunday, that he had considered walking away from politics altogether.

He has felt exhausted after carrying Reform for almost two years, and the recent scrutiny has seen him suddenly perform a disappearing act, pausing his weekly press conferences.

Interestingly, he chose to make his announcement via social media, away from the prying questions of journalists. He plans to do much more of this style of messaging: it’s something that Sir Keir Starmer considered when he, too, was under siege in the weeks before his resignation as prime minister.

But Mr Farage is a man who wants his place in history and would prefer for his long and successful political career not to end with a whimper. Better, in his view, to go down fighting.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that he is struggling to cope with the level of scrutiny as a man with plausible ambitions to be the next prime minister.

He is, by his own admission, an angry man over the inevitable media coverage of his undeclared multimillion-pound donations from Thai crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and his questionable friendship with a convicted criminal, George Cottrell.

Much of this was dressed up with fury at Sky News and the Sunday Times, with the broadcaster alleged to have approached a property where his daughter lives.

But, in reality, this is a man whose party is slipping in the polls, who is staring at the prospect of Labour under Andy Burnham surpassing Reform in popularity, and cannot win a parliamentary by-election because of tactical voting.

His rivals are circling, including former allies such as ex-Reform deputy leader Ben Habib and ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, both hell-bent on revenge after falling out with Mr Farage. Elsewhere, Labour and the Tories smell blood.

His self-justification on the undeclared donations will jar with many, although his complaints about the physical abuse he receives are not exaggerated and should be taken seriously.

However, perhaps the real reason for all this drama is that Mr Farage must know that his chances of entering Downing Street are close to being extinguished, and this is his last chance to move the dial.

The question will be whether he can hold on to a seat for which he took 46.2 per cent of the vote in the general election.

If the other parties are smart they will give the Tories, who came second and previously held the seat, a free run at defeating him. The stakes could not be higher.

Read More

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