I LATION could go up in February due to higher rice and fish prices and energy costs, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Friday.
The central bank’s 2.3- to 3.1-percent forecast range is higher than the 2.0 percent seen in January and 2.1 percent recorded a year earlier. It remains, however, within the 2.0- to 4.0-percent target.
“Upward price pressures could stem from higher prices of rice and fish, elevated domestic petroleum prices, and increased electricity charges in Meralco-serviced areas,” the BSP said in a statement.
“These pressures, however, may be partly offset by lower prices of vegetables, fruits, and meat, as well as peso appreciation,” it added.
Within-target inflation could allow the BSP to continue lowering key interest rates during its next policy meeting in April. A 25-basis point reduction in February brought the benchmark rate to 4.25 percent.
Following the rate-setting meeting, the BSP said that the outlook for inflation remained manageable, but added that forecasts for 2026 had risen due to supply-side pressures.
Inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, it added, and the rate is expected to return to around 3.0 percent by 2027.
February’s rate cut was expected given last year’s economic growth slowdown, blamed largely on the impact of a massive government corruption scandal. The 4.4-percent result was substantially lower than 2025’s 5.7 percent and marked a third straight year of below-target growth.
“Economic growth has undershot the BSP’s expectations due to weaker domestic demand,” the central bank said in February.
“Latest indicators point to a recovery in the second half of the year, but growth will depend largely on how quickly confidence recovers,” it added.
On Friday, it said that the BSP would keep monitoring domestic and international developments to ensure that policy settings “remain consistent with the pursuit of price stability conducive with sustainable growth and employment.”
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release February inflation data on Thursday.