DO you also get the impression that we are not being told the whole truth?
The circumstances of the current crisis are clear. Nevertheless, a British Broadcasting Corp. (BBC) article (“Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last?”) briefly explained that the US-Israel strikes targeted Iran’s missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership, key sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program, as well as oil and gas sites in the country.
The US and Israel calculated that the (continuing) development of the Iranian nuclear program, the country’s anti-Western/clerical fundamentalist leadership that has supported the dark activities of militant (anti-Israel and anti-US) groups in the Middle East/Gulf region area, and robust military infrastructure constitute an imminent threat to peace and security in the region, particularly to the security of Israel.
As I have previously explained, Iran probably chose the path to be an aspiring nuclear power, engaging in proxy conflict with the US and Israel largely in response to repeated American/Western intervention in its domestic affairs aimed toward regime change on several occasions, including the ouster of democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh and the subsequent installation of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1953.
The explanation is very straightforward and easy to comprehend. Most educated Filipinos are probably cognizant of these basic facts about the conflict.
Unfortunately, beyond what has been laid out above, other pertinent and relevant bits of information are quite hazy, fuzzy and unclear. Scouring available information from news sources, domestically and internationally, primarily on the internet, I hope to fill in the gaps with necessary, pertinent and relevant curated information.
Aside from the concerns about the safety and well-being of millions of overseas Filipinos in the region, the matter that grips the attention of our country the most about this conflict is its disastrous effect on our oil supply.
According to EnerData dot net, oil production in the Philippines is at 0.2 metric tons in 2024, accounting for only 4 percent of demand. The rest — more than 90 percent — is procured through imports totaling 5.85 metric tons in 2024. Almost half of the country’s oil imports in 2024 were covered by Saudi Arabia (49 percent), followed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE, 28 percent), Iraq (19 percent), and Colombia (4 percent). Essentially, 96 percent of our oil import supply comes from the current conflict area.
According to Offshore-Technology dot com, the Petron Bataan Refinery (PBR) in Limay, Bataan, has a production capacity of 180,000 barrels per day (as of the December 2020 publication of the article). Sources say that PBR is the only refinery operating in the country at the moment. CEICdata dot com tells us that the Philippines consume 486,641 barrels of oil per day (as of December 2024), far beyond the production capacity of PBR. Thus, our country imports a huge volume of finished oil products like diesel, which powers our shipping, public utility vehicles, heavy industries and logistics.
We have mind-numbingly observed how meteoric the price of diesel has soared since hostilities in the Gulf region broke out in late February 2026. Energy secretary Sharon Garin explained that the international demand for diesel is more competitive and the market more volatile. An important factor here is US sanctions imposed on Russian diesel exports due to the conflict in Ukraine. According to a Reuters report dated Oct. 25, 2025, Russia is the world’s largest diesel exporter with over 800,000 barrels per day, corresponding to about 3 percent of global demand at the time. While the US has recently agreed to briefly lift the sanctions to improve the supply of diesel, Russia decided to limit its diesel exports to help stabilize its domestic market.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in an article published on Nov. 21, 2023, pegged the volume of oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz in 2022 at 20.8 million barrels per day. The volume for the first half of 2023 was 20.5 million barrels per day. Of that total, 15.2 and 14.7 million barrels per day for 2022 and the first half of 2023 respectively were crude oil and condensate, with 5.6 and 5.8 million barrels per day for petroleum products (including diesel), respectively.
It seems that large volumes of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz find their way to refineries in Asian hubs like China, India, South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Bloomberg reports (April 6, 2026) an ongoing “global tug-of-war” for diesel supply even as the conflict rages, raising the possibility of supply shortages in Europe in the coming weeks. If ever supply becomes available, it will surely be procured at a very prohibitive price, given the crisis.
What I have deduced from the available information is that the much-hyped promise made by the Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi to our Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro that Philippine-bound oil shall be allowed safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz may be quite hollow. Note that from the US EIA data, almost 80 percent of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is crude oil and condensate, something which the Philippines will not be able to refine in large volumes given our limited refinery facilities. Logically, the crude oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz shall most probably be headed for the major refineries in Asian hubs mentioned earlier. Consequently, a separate transaction will likely be necessary to procure much-needed supply, especially of diesel, for our country. This situation effectively renders the Iranian promise of safe passage for Philippine-bound oil superfluous, immaterial and inconsequential in the whole scheme of things.
I am now beginning to understand why vital information about our oil supply situation is not being discussed in great detail and in the simplest terms on public platforms. The government seems to be essentially keeping the Filipino people in the dark about our stark realities.
We are in deep trouble and our government apparently sees it fit to feed us false hope and mirages, instead of being straight with the nation.
Great! Wonderful!
How predictable!
