Second of a series
IN my “From the Cabinet to the Senate” piece last Jan. 23, 2026, I was so focused on accounting for every Cabinet member to immediately run for the Senate at the end of their stint in the president’s official family that I left almost no room for some real analysis of the data. This piece seeks to rectify that shortcoming.
Given the available space for that piece, I was only able to look at the senatorial races from 2004 to 2025 for a total of eight electoral contests. Those elections resulted in: 2025: three candidates, one winner 2022: five candidates, one winner 2019: two candidates, all winners 2016: four candidates, three winners 2013: no candidates 2010: two candidates, one winner 2007: one candidate, no winners 2004: three candidates, two winners Thus, out of 20 candidates in eight elections, half were winners and six of them — i.e., Erwin Tulfo (2025), Mark Villar (2022), Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (2016), Joel Villanueva (2016), Ralph Recto (2010), Manuel “Mar” Roxas II (2004) — had previous legislative experience prior to becoming Cabinet members. Lacson had been a two-term senator prior to being appointed then-president Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s presidential assistant for rehabilitation and recovery in 2013. Tulfo and Villanueva were party-list representatives. Meanwhile, Villar, Recto and Roxas were district representatives.
Of the remaining winners, Francis Tolentino (2019), Leila de Lima (2016) and Richard “Dick” Gordon (2004) chaired the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, Commission on Human Rights and Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority before rising to Cabinet-level posts in the next administration for presidents Rodrigo Duterte, Aquino and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, respectively. Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go (2019), on the other hand, was an executive assistant for then-Davao City mayor Duterte.
De Lima ironically edged out Tolentino for 12th place in the 2016 elections and lost her reelection bid in the 2022, albeit while in custody for drug-related charges during the campaign. In 2025, she represented the Mamamayang Liberal party-list in the House of Representatives, skipping another run for the Senate presumably because of poor performance on the surveys.
Tolentino, as mentioned, ranked 13th in the 2016 senatorial elections. He won in 2019, this time as Duterte’s presidential adviser on political affairs, placing 9th. He nevertheless lost miserably in his reelection bid in 2025 after allying himself with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas (“Alyansa”).
Tulfo placed a solid fourth in the 2025 elections, also with Alyansa. Villar earned the sixth spot in the 2022 race under Marcos and then-Davao City mayor Sara Duterte’s UniTeam. Go was a very strong third placer and Tolentino ninth in 2019 under Rodrigo Duterte’s Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban).
Villanueva came in second in 2016, while Lacson was in the fourth spot, both as members of Aquino’s Koalisyon ng Daang Matuwid. Villanueva was reelected in 2022 as an independent candidate. Recto placed a respectable eighth in 2010 under the Liberal Party banner and was reelected under Koalisyon ng Daang Matuwid in 2016. Afterward, Recto won a congressional race in Batangas in 2022 before being picked by President Marcos to be the secretary of Finance in 2024 and executive secretary in 2025.
Roxas was the topnotcher in 2004 with Gordon in fifth, both under the pro-administration Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan sa Kinabukasan. Roxas narrowly lost the vice-presidential race in 2010 (to then-Makati mayor Jejomar Binay). Subsequently, he was appointed by Aquino to the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC, now just the Department of Transportation, or DOTr, 2011-2012) and then the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG, 2012-2015). He ran and lost pitifully in the presidential and senatorial races in 2016 and 2019, respectively. Roxas was the administration bet in 2016 but was in the opposition slate in 2019.
Gordon miserably lost as a presidential candidate in 2010 and narrowly missed a return to the Senate in 2013 with the opposition United Nationalist Alliance before winning anew in 2016 with Partido Galing at Puso and performing poorly in his reelection bid in 2022 under the opposition-aligned Bagumbayan-Volunteers for a New Philippines. Meanwhile, reelectionist Go topped the 2025 elections as an opposition candidate.
Given Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” Dizon’s background as a would-be political neophyte in a projected run for the Senate in 2028, Go and de Lima are the most successful comparisons in that sense. However, others in the same boat were not so fortunate: executive secretary Victor “Vic” Rodriguez (2025) and presidential legal counsel Salvador “Sal” Panelo (2022). Cabinet secretary Silvestre Bello III (2010), in fact, had previously lost as a senatorial candidate back in 1992. In short, fate does not often favor Cabinet secretaries-turned neophyte senatorial candidates.
If we went back to previous elections not covered by this piece, the performance of Cabinet secretaries was even worse. In the 1992 elections alone, a small army of President Corazon Aquino’s outgoing Cabinet members were massacred, including Alfredo Bengzon, Tomas Gomez III, Jose Concepcion Jr., Bello, Francisco Chavez, and Ruben Torres, among others.
Go was unquestionably a mere surrogate for his longtime principal Duterte during the 2019 elections. His strong showing is attributable to the stratospheric popularity of Duterte at that point, as were the cases of Tolentino and retired Philippine National Police chief Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa. Go and dela Rosa placed first and second in the recent 2025 elections, in large part due to the Duterte factor. Tolentino, as mentioned, lost with Marcos’ Alyansa in the same elections.
Riding Marcos’ coattails in 2028 may not be a wise move for Dizon (if ever) because Bongbong’s trust and approval numbers at present are atrocious.
A media blitz is also not quite the answer as seen in the experience, most recently, of more seasoned (local) politicians — former DILG chief Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos Jr. and former Makati mayor Abigail “Abby” Binay, who both bombed out in the 2025 senatorial elections for Alyansa.
Becoming a senator is not a sure home run for former cabinet members.