WITH the world’s attention firmly focused on the United States and Israel’s war against Iran, two other major conflicts rage on, with no clear indications of a peaceful settlement on the horizon.
“Forever wars” are protracted conflicts that have been stalemated by deep geopolitical differences, with little chance of a decisive victory.
The Gaza Strip and Ukraine are evolving into forever wars that grab the headlines only when there is a void of newsworthy developments from the Gulf war.
In Gaza, the peace formula much vaunted by United States President Donald Trump is practically in tatters. Israel continues to maintain an occupation force in the Palestinian enclave that has brought only repression, fear and hopelessness to the civilian population.
Humanitarian conditions in Gaza have severely deteriorated. Nearly a million people lack adequate shelter, forced to live in tent cities under squalid conditions.
Ramz Alakbarov, the UN Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, last week reported to the Security Council that Gaza could slip into a “permanent” state of limbo if the transition plan fails.
A UN resolution adopted last November endorsed Trump’s plan, which called for a Board of Peace to oversee the deployment of an international stabilization force to take over control and administration of the enclave once Israeli troops pull out.
The plan has all but snagged. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected it, insisting that the introduction of foreign troops will compromise Israeli capability to wipe out the remnants of Hamas in Gaza.
Netanyahu is also against allowing the Palestinian Authority (PA) any role in the governance of Gaza, convinced that it could provide the PA a bigger role on the Middle East stage.
The interim has allowed Israel to maintain its ruthless regime in Gaza. There are concerns that Israel has no plans of giving up control of Gaza, and that its real objective is annexation.
Since October 2024, 70,117 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip, and another 170,999 have been injured. Although health care delivery has vastly improved, it is still woefully inadequate.
Sixty-one percent of Gaza’s hospitals and health service facilities have been destroyed or severely damaged by the war, and it will take a while before the health system is fully restored.
With the Israeli military practically given carte blanche in Gaza, a renewed surge in the fighting cannot be ruled out.
“The people of Gaza cannot take more war,” Alakbarov warned. “The scenario must be avoided at all costs.”
Political analysts believe the war in Ukraine is also settling into a “strategic deadlock.”
As the conflict trudges on, the goals are getting politically irreconcilable. Russia is now demanding the full capitulation of Ukraine and control of the disputed eastern regions.
Ukraine has also drawn the line: It will never cede sovereign territory.
Those positions were still negotiable during mediation efforts arranged by the US and other concerned entities like the European Union. Not anymore.
At one point, Trump tried to strong-arm Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into accepting Moscow’s terms for ending the war, warning that Russian strongman Vladimir Putin would “destroy” Ukraine if it refused to comply.
European countries, fearing a major conflict on the continent if Zelenskyy refused, mounted a funding campaign to build up Ukraine’s military muscle.
The war in Ukraine has since entered a more dangerous phase, with both Kyiv and Moscow launching unprecedented air and drone attacks on each other.
On the ground, the Russian offensive has stalled. For the first time since 2024, Russia gave up territory it previously seized.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “death spiral” after Russia unleashed a barrage of missiles and 150 attack drones at civilian targets in Ukraine.
In retaliation, Kyiv has launched drone attacks on a number of air defense facilities, including an oil refinery in the city of Krasnoder, which provides fuel for the Russian military.
According to Guterres, “forever wars” create long-term impacts across the planet. They permanently disrupt commodity, energy and financial systems; weaken the international legal and diplomatic framework; and siphon capital away from civilian innovation and development.
“Forever wars” eventually triggers the slow normalization of political instability. That is a potentially explosive situation.