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AS talk grows louder of both Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) going solo in the next general election, questions are emerging over whether either coalition can realistically form a government on its own.
According to political analyst Prof Dr Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM), the short answer is no.
In a brief assessment, Syaza said neither PH nor BN is currently in a position to secure enough seats independently to cross the threshold needed to form the federal government.
“My very basic analysis suggests BN might gain some seats — possibly from Bersatu and PKR — while PH could lose ground,” she said when asked about the implications of a solo run by both coalitions.
She noted that parties within PH, particularly DAP, may see some erosion of support, while PKR faces a more significant decline. Despite potential gains, BN alone would still fall short of forming a government.
“Even in that situation, BN would still need to work with others,” she added.
Syaza also outlined a possible post-election scenario where BN, even with around 30 seats, could find itself aligning with Perikatan Nasional (PN), which she estimates could secure about 60 seats.
Such a combination, together with East Malaysian blocs like GPS and GRS, could pave the way for an alternative governing coalition.
“In that kind of configuration, it would arguably make more sense politically, particularly as a Malay-based government,” she said.
The prospect of both PH and BN contesting separately, despite being partners in the current unity government, raises concerns about vote-splitting and a fragmented mandate.
While leaders from both sides have expressed readiness to test their strength independently, analysts warn that such a move could ultimately weaken both coalitions and open the door for other alignments to take power.
According to another observer, Murray Hunter, Umno is already in deep preparation for elections, and this is putting pressure on the prime minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, to call an early election, possibly within the next few months.
Last week, Anwar said that a snap general election could take place if cracks continue to form within the unity government.
On another front, former ministers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad both announced they are taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia and have resigned from PKR.
However, Dr Azmi Hassan of Academy Nusantara believes the post-election reality will still push PH and BN back together.
According to Azmi, no single party or coalition is strong enough to govern independently under Malaysia’s current political landscape.
“No party will form the federal government without cooperation. PH and BN know that they need each other,” he said.
Azmi highlighted that Malaysia’s political system has increasingly normalised post-election negotiations, where coalitions are often formalised only after results are known.
“Uniquely in Malaysia, any formation of a new government will take place after the general election results,” he explained, adding that both PH and BN already appear to have a “loose understanding” despite public positioning.
“At the end of GE16, PH and BN will continue leading the government,” he said.
The possibility of both coalitions contesting separately, while maintaining an informal understanding, reflects a strategic balancing act — appealing to their respective bases during the campaign while keeping post-election options open.
Still, analysts warn that going solo carries risks, particularly the potential for vote-splitting and unintended shifts in power dynamics. – May 25, 2026
