Germany’s far-right AfD party looks set to make large gains when the country heads to the polls on Sunday.
The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) look set to once again become the largest party in the Bundestag with 220 seats, allowing them to reinstall their first chancellor since Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021.
According to YouGov’s final MRP poll before the election, the far-right AfD’s 145 seats will surpass the 115 projected for the governing SPD, after its popularity has collapsed under chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The Greens, who partner the SPD in a coalition, are also projected to fall from their record 15 per cent vote share in 2021 to 13 per cent on Sunday.
German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier called the elections after Mr Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the German Bundestag on 15 January – after losing the support of his coalition when he fired finance minister Christian Lindner amid tensions over economic policy.
But the governing coalition had been falling in popularity long before the dispute within government, with the AfD having surged in federal elections in Thuringia and Saxony last September.
Key Points
- Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election
- How Elon Musk became champion of AfD
- Who are the candidates for Germany's next chancellor?
- Germany heads to the polls with far-right surge expected
German far-right leader 'seems like an adult in the room among extremists'
09:29
,
Andy Gregory
Alice Weidel, the far-right Alternative for Germany’s chancellor candidate, is an unlikely public face for a male-dominated, anti-immigration party that depicts itself as a defender of traditional family values.
The 46-year-old is raising two sons with a Sri Lankan-born woman, is a filmmaker, and speaks fluent English and Mandarin, having done a doctorate in economics in China. A western German leading a party that is strongest in the former communist East, she worked for Goldman Sachs and Allianz Global Investors and as a freelance business consultant before entering politics.
Ms Weidel’s unusual profile, however, is precisely what makes her an asset to the AfD, according to political analysts, lending a veneer of well-heeled liberal respectability to a party that is suspected by authorities of being anti-democratic.
“Weidel is someone who can appeal to a broader public than the typical AfD constituency, to the middle class bourgeoisie,” said Oliver Lembcke, political scientist at the University of Bochum. “She seems like the adult in the room among all these lunatics and extremists.”
Who are the contenders?
07:00
,
Alex Croft
Four candidates are running to be Germany’s next leader: incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the centre-left Social Democrats; Friedrich Merz, the candidate of the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union party; current Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, of the environmentalist Greens; and Alice Weidel, of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD.
Pre-election polls have put Merz’s Union bloc in the lead with support of about 30 per cent, ahead of AfD, with around 20 per cent. Scholz’s Social Democrats and Habeck’s Greens are further back.
Merz is favored to replace Scholz as chancellor, but it’s not yet clear what governing coalitions will be possible after the election. How easy it is to form a government may depend in part on how many parties are in the new parliament. Opinion polls show three parties hovering around the 5 per cent of the vote needed to win seats.
All mainstream parties say they won’t work with AfD.
Trump wishes luck to German parties
06:30
,
Alisha Rahaman Sarkar
US president Donald Trump wished the parties in Germany luck after seemingly forgetting the European country is going to polls this weekend.
When asked by a reporter at the White House about his thoughts on the Sunday election, Mr Trump asked: "Who has elections?"
"Germany," the reporter replied."I wish them luck," Mr Trump said, according to DW. "We got our own problems."
Elon Musk wants the far right AfD to win the German election - here’s how he became their champion
06:01
,
Alex Croft
When a young German anti-climate activist nicknamed the “anti-Greta Thunberg” began flattering tech billionaire Elon Musk on X, few could have foreseen it leading to the tech billionaire wholeheartedly endorsing Germany’s far-right. It would take just ten months.
Germany goes to the polls on Sunday and there are fears the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), a political party partly designated as far-right extremists, could win nearly a quarter of the national vote.
X owner turned Trump ally Musk has described the AfD as the only party that “can save Germany”, interviewed the party’s leader, Alice Wiedel, spoken at the AfD’s election rally and written an op-ed endorsing the party.
Tom Watling and Alicja Hagopian report:
Merz says 'Germany must be prepared to take on leadership responsibility'
05:19
,
Alisha Rahaman Sarkar
Election frontrunner Friedrich Merz, the head of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, warned yesterday that while Germany's future lay in the West, it was not clear that the West would include the US anymore.
His statement comes at a time when Europe is seeking to tackle a confrontational Donald Trump, whose apparent wish to disengage from the region and mend ties with Russia raises questions about the solidity of the Western alliance.
"But even without Americans, our place remains in the centre of Europe, not alongside [Vladimir] Putin and not isolated on the way to the right-wing populist sidelines," Mr Merz wrote in a letter to supporters. "For Europe to continue to succeed in the future, Germany must be prepared to take on leadership responsibility."
The key issues: Migration
05:01
,
Alex Croft
A slew of violent attacks linked to foreign suspects in Germany have compounded public concerns over security and migration, prompting political parties to demand stricter measures on migration.
After the most recent attack on 22 January, Merz sponsored a draft bill with AfD support, breaking a taboo against cooperating with the far-right party.
However, he later failed to secure a majority for the bill as some of the deputies from his own party refused to support it.
In general, the conservative CDU has adopted a stricter stance on immigration in recent years, calling for pushing back asylum seekers at the borders, and for limits on family reunifications and naturalisation for refugees.
The anti-Islam, anti-migration AfD has called for borders to be closed and asylum seekers to no longer have the right to family reunification. Some senior AfD members have gone further in their comments and were present at discussions among far-right activists about deporting millions of people of foreign origin, including German citizens.
The SPD itself has toughened its position by enforcing stricter border controls and accelerating deportations, although it also wants to bring in more foreign skilled workers.
In contrast, the Greens maintain a more open asylum policy, promoting state-backed sea rescue initiatives and simplifying family reunification processes and enhancing integration.
What happens after polls close?
04:02
Germany's electoral system rarely gives any party an absolute majority and opinion polls suggest that no party is anywhere near one this time. The country has no tradition of minority governments at national level, which means that two or more parties will most likely form a coalition.
There is no formal referee for the process of forming a new government, and no set time limit. Parties hold exploratory talks to determine who they have most common ground with, and one combination of parties then moves on to formal coalition talks.
Those negotiations typically produce a detailed coalition agreement setting out the new government’s plans. That will typically need approval at least from conventions of the parties involved. Some parties may choose to put it to a ballot of their entire membership.
Once that process is complete, the Bundestag can elect the new chancellor.
Knife attack outside Berlin Holocaust memorial leaves one injured
03:46
,
Alisha Rahaman Sarkar
A Spanish tourist has been seriously injured in a stabbing attack at Berlin's Holocaust memorial two days before a watershed national election.
Officers arrested a suspect on Friday evening, shortly after the assault on the northern side of the vast field of 2,700 grey concrete slabs, across the street from the US embassy.
"Our forces have detained a suspect in the vicinity of the crime scene," city police posted on X, giving no details on his identity or possible motive, but adding that he would be interrogated. "Investigations continue."
More here.
Far-right surge expected in polls
03:01
,
Alex Croft
German voters will head to the polls on Sunday, with the far-right AfD party expected to surge.
The SPD and Greens, both part of the governing coalition, are likely to drop in popularity according to recent polling.
But Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrats, who were led by long-serving chancellor Angela Merkel until 2021, are likely to become the largest party in parliament.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has struggled with popularity ratings for much of his time as the German leader.
Sitting at 18 per cent according to a Infratest Dimap survey last year, his popularity ratings were some of the lowest recorded by a German leader.
YouGov’s final MRP poll suggests the far-right AfD’s 145 seats will surpass the 115 projected for the governing SPD.
The Greens, the SPD’s coalition partner, are also projected to fall from their record 15 per cent vote share in 2021 to 13 per cent on Sunday.
It is the fourth snap election in Germany’s history, after president Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament when Mr Scholz lost a vote of confidence in parliament.
Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election
02:24
,
Jabed Ahmed
With the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, residents in Munich tell Tom Watling of the horror of suffering the third suspected terror attack of the country’s election cycle
Watch: German activists condemn Tesla for Musk’s one-handed salute at Trump’s inauguration
02:00
,
Alex Croft
Resistance against AfD grows
01:23
,
Tom Watling
Counter-protests across Germany, including in Munich, have seen hundreds of thousands rally against the AfD.
Germany has long maintained a policy of Brandmauer—a political firewall refusing cooperation with far-right parties since the 1950s. However, AfD posters across Munich have been raised higher to prevent them from being torn down, and many have been vandalized with “FCKAFD” stickers.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz tested this firewall last month by accepting AfD votes to push through an immigration bill. As a result, his campaign posters have been defaced.
Merz insists that if he wins, he will not form a coalition with the AfD but will instead seek alliances with other parties.
How austerity and the debt brake opened the door to the far-right
01:02
,
Alex Croft
In Gelsenkirchen, a former coal town in Germany's industrial Ruhr Valley, Lars Baumguertel, 58, oversees one of the region's last surviving manufacturers.
His company, like many Mittelstand businesses – the small and medium-sized enterprises that form the backbone of the German economy – is struggling under the weight of soaring energy costs following the disruption of cheap Russian gas supplies after the Ukraine war.
This struggle is reflected in Germany's broader economic woes. The nation, Europe's largest economy, has experienced consecutive years of contraction in 2024, marking its worst performance in two decades.
Gelsenkirchen, with the country's highest unemployment rate, has been particularly hard hit. This economic hardship has fuelled a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Far-right AfD gains momentum amid rising fears
00:27
,
Jabed Ahmed
Attacks across the nation have intensified Germany’s already toxic political environment, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) capitalizing on them to push for stricter immigration policies.
AfD leader Alice Weidel, championed by X owner Elon Musk, posted on social media after the Munich attack: “Is this supposed to go on forever? Migration turnaround now!”
The AfD, despite being officially designated as far-right extremists in some factions, has climbed to second in national polls behind the CDU, holding about 21% of the vote. In Munich and surrounding areas, it polls around 12%, while the CDU’s sister party, the CSU, remains a strong favourite.
What’s up for grabs?
00:00
,
Alex Croft
At least 59.2 million people in a country of 84 million are eligible to vote for the new Bundestag, or lower house of parliament. It is the 630-member Bundestag that will elect the next chancellor, Germany’s equivalent of a prime minister.
There are 29 parties on the ballot, but it’s likely that between five and eight of them will get enough votes to win seats in parliament. In most cases, parties must win at least 5 per cent of the vote to get a share of the seats.
Germany is in fearful mourning while far-right AfD party surges in polls ahead of election
Friday 21 February 2025 23:56
,
Jabed Ahmed
With the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, residents in Munich tell Tom Watling of the horror of suffering the third suspected terror attack of the country’s election cycle
The key issues: Relations with Trump
Friday 21 February 2025 23:00
,
Alex Croft
The question of how to tackle the new administration of US President Donald Trump, who has already flagged the possibility of increased tariffs and reduced military support for Europe, is particularly sensitive for Germany. The US remains the top destination for German exports and its main security ally.
The SPD's Scholz has sharply countered Trump's comments on Greenland and Canada, while conservative frontrunner Merz warned against lecturing him, emphasising instead areas of possible cooperation like a potential EU-U.S. trade deal or joint China strategy.
The Greens' Habeck said the EU must stand united and seek talks with the Trump administration because a trade war will ultimately harm all sides.
All of the mainstream parties have voiced scepticism about Trump's demand for European countries to increase spending on defence to 5 per cent of economic output, given that Germany will already struggle to keep to 2 per cent after its special fund for the military runs out. Habeck, however, has already proposed an increase to 3.5 per cent.
The German party that has most embraced the Trump administration is the AfD, which received multiple endorsements from Trump's ally Elon Musk, resulting in his conversation on X with the party's chancellor candidate Alice Weidel.
A nation grieves after recent attack in Munich
Friday 21 February 2025 22:27
,
Tom Watling
A middle-aged woman clutching an emptied cardboard box stands silently over the latest pile of fresh red flowers near Munich central station. A pink child’s dress hangs on the railings above, next to an Algerian flag and a doll. Teddy bears sit among placards calling for peace.
It has been just over a week since a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker drove his white Mini into a crowd attending a trade union demonstration—the third suspected terror attack in Germany in as many months.
More than two dozen were injured. A woman originally from Algeria, who later worked for the government, and her two-year-old child were killed.
A string of attacks fuels political tensions
Friday 21 February 2025 22:22
,
Tom Watling
Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the collapse of his three-way coalition in November, bringing the originally scheduled September election forward.
Following the coalition’s collapse:
- December: A 50-year-old Saudi Arabian man drove a truck into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 200.
- January: A 28-year-old Afghan man attacked a school group, killing a two-year-old child and a man in Aschaffenburg.
- February: Last Thursday, an attack in Munich left multiple victims. Authorities believe the assailant, Farhad Noori, may have had “Islamist motivation.”
Five reasons why Germany’s economy is in the dumps
Friday 21 February 2025 21:57
,
Alex Croft
Germany hasn't seen significant economic growth in five years.
It's a stunning turnaround for Europe's biggest economy, which for much of this century had expanded exports and dominated world trade in engineered products like industrial machinery and luxury cars.
So what happened? Here are five reasons for Germany's ongoing economic slump:
The key issues: War in Ukraine
Friday 21 February 2025 20:53
,
Alex Croft
Germany's mainstream parties all favour helping Ukraine fend off Russia's invasion, while the AfD and BSW want an end to weapons deliveries to Kyiv and a resumption of good relations with Moscow.
However, Scholz and his SPD have recently struck a more cautious tone - emphasising the need for diplomacy - than the conservatives, Greens and FDP, who are all in favour of Germany delivering long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv.
The key issues: Reviving the economy
Friday 21 February 2025 19:49
,
Alex Croft
Scholz has proposed incentivising private investment and modernising infrastructure with an off-budget, €100 billion fund. His SPD also plans a direct tax refund of 10 per cent on equipment investments by businesses.
The Greens' Robert Habeck has, like Scholz, called for reform of Germany's constitutionally enshrined debt brake to allow for higher public spending.
Merz had also signalled some openness to a moderate reform of the debt brake but his party's manifesto has pledged to retain it. The AfD and the FDP are fierce defenders of the limit on public borrowing.
The CDU/CSU manifesto has proposed extensive financial relief for companies and citizens, including income and corporate tax cuts, and lower electricity charges. They have not said how these would be financed.
The AfD wants Germany to ditch the euro, reintroduce the Deutsche Mark and potentially leave the EU.
In pictures: Germany prepares to head to the polls
Friday 21 February 2025 18:45
,
Alex Croft
German voters head to the polls this weekend – here is what to expect
Friday 21 February 2025 17:38
,
Alex Croft
Germans head to the polls on Sunday in a pivotal election that will shape the country's trajectory for the next four years and significantly influence Europe's political landscape.
As the European Union’s most populous nation and a leading member of Nato, Germany's political direction holds substantial weight on the international stage.
The election's outcome will also determine Germany's continued role in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, as the country currently stands as the second largest weapons supplier to Ukraine after the United States.
The new German government will also play a key role in shaping Europe's relationship with the Trump administration.
Elon Musk wants the far right AfD to win the German election - here’s how he became their champion
Friday 21 February 2025 16:33
,
Alex Croft
When a young German anti-climate activist nicknamed the “anti-Greta Thunberg” began flattering tech billionaire Elon Musk on X, few could have foreseen it leading to the tech billionaire wholeheartedly endorsing Germany’s far-right. It would take just ten months.
Germany goes to the polls on Sunday and there are fears the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), a political party partly designated as far-right extremists, could win nearly a quarter of the national vote.
X owner turned Trump ally Musk has described the AfD as the only party that “can save Germany”, interviewed the party’s leader, Alice Wiedel, spoken at the AfD’s election rally and written an op-ed endorsing the party.
Tom Watling and Alicja Hagopian report:
4 candidates want to be Germany's next chancellor. Who are they?
Friday 21 February 2025 12:37
,
Alex Croft
Four candidates are bidding to be Germany's next leader in Sunday's election. The would-be chancellors are the incumbent, the opposition leader, the current vice chancellor and — for the first time — a leader of a far-right party.
Here’s a rundown on Olaf Scholz, Freidrich Merz, Robert Habeck and Alice Weidel, the four candidates looking to become Germany’s next chancellor.
Germany heads to the polls with far-right surge expected
Friday 21 February 2025 12:36
,
Alex Croft
German voters will head to the polls on Sunday, with the far-right AfD party expected to surge.
The SPD and Greens, both part of the governing coalition, are likely to drop in popularity according to recent polling.
But Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrats, who were led by long-serving chancellor Angela Merkel until 2021, are likely to become the largest party in parliament.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has struggled with popularity ratings for much of his time as the German leader.
Sitting at 18 per cent according to a Infratest Dimap survey last year, his popularity ratings were some of the lowest recorded by a German leader.
It is the fourth snap election in Germany’s history, after president Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved parliament when Mr Scholz lost a vote of confidence in parliament.
