Global average temperatures crossed the 2C threshold for the first time last week – an alarming breach that climate scientists have long warned could lead to catastrophic results for the planet if it becomes a long term pattern.
Preliminary data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested 17 November was the first day on record to have a global average surface temperature 2.06C above pre-industrial levels.
The breach, while temporary, is alarming because 2C is the higher limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement that aims to limit global heating and avoid some of the most harmful consequences that stem from the climate crisis.
“Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06C,” Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said on X on Sunday.
This preliminary data will require weeks to be confirmed with real-life observations.
Global temperatures – the average of all the weather stations around the world – have been on the rise ever since humans started burning fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal to generate energy after the industrial revolution in the 1800s.
Provisional ERA5 global temperature for 17th November from @CopernicusECMWF was 1.17°C above 1991-2020 - the warmest on record.
— Dr Sam Burgess (@OceanTerra) November 19, 2023
Our best estimate is that this was the first day when global temperature was more than 2°C above 1850-1900 (or pre-industrial) levels, at 2.06°C. pic.twitter.com/jXF8oRZeip
The concerning milestone comes just weeks after the planet temporarily crossed the 1.5C mark, the preferred lower limit for warming set out in the Paris Agreement.
The overall average temperature for this year is expected to be 1.3-1.4C higher than the pre-industrial average, according to analysis released by Climate Central this month.
Scientists have consistently warned that with every 0.01-degree rise in global temperatures, the planet will face catastrophic consequences in the form of more disasters and extreme weather events.
A number of shocking records have been broken in 2023 and along with them there have been disasters that show the ramifications of the climate crisis.
The year is on track to be the hottest ever, while a record number of heatwaves and wildfires have been witnessed across the world in 2023. It has already been confirmed to be the hottest northern hemisphere summer on record.
Temperatures have also increased this year due to the emergence of El Nino, a natural climatic pattern that can drive more weather extremes.
For the global average to breach the Paris Agreement’s targets, temperatures will have to go beyond the 2C threshold for a longer duration.
While Friday’s temporary breach does not yet mean efforts to contain heating within the Paris Agreement’s limits have failed, experts say this is an indication that we are running out of time.
“If the trend continues, then 1.5C will be crossed in the early 2030s,” Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor of mathematics and computer science, wrote on X.
In spite of what's happening right now to the planet (2.0°C today), the Paris Limit means "long-term."
— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 19, 2023
Here's a graph of the 10-year running average temperature anomaly for the years 1950-2023. If the trend continues, then 1.5°C will be crossed in the early 2030's. pic.twitter.com/sF4Y1KQHtA
Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network said the 2C rise “is not just a statistic” but “a global climate crisis in action.”
“This is the cost of a fossil fuel-dependent development model: it harms the planet and costs lives.”
Scientists said there is still time to reverse the trend if countries take stronger action on reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
However, a number of recent reports have assessed that countries are not doing enough to reduce oil, gas and coal despite increasing risks.
The record comes just two weeks before the start of the 28th UN Climate Conference (Cop28) in Dubai, where a deal will be struck on action to tackle the worsening crisis.
