THE Philippines is in a “good spot” despite renewed trade uncertainty following a US Supreme Court ruling striking down President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, a Cabinet official said.
“We’ll continue to engage with them (the US),” Finance Secretary Frederick Go told reporters on Tuesday.
“As I always say, so far, the majority of our semiconductors are exempted and the majority of our key agricultural exports are exempted,” he added.
“So, I’d say we’re in a good spot.”
The US high court on Friday declared that tariff hikes imposed by Trump last year under an emergency powers act were unlawful, a decision that he heavily criticized and followed up with announcements that duties on all foreign imports would be raised to 10 percent — revised to 15 percent on Saturday.
The US started imposing the 10-percent tariff past midnight on Tuesday. It is unclear when the 15-percent rate would take effect as so far, Trump has only signed an executive order for the 10-percent duty.
Details of the impact on the Philippines remained scant, with Trade Secretary Cristina Roque mostly telling reporters that negotiations with the US were continuing.
“They’re (negotiators) still in talks, that’s the word,” she said.
Asked if exemptions granted by the US last year would stay, she replied, “It’s hard to make assumptions now.”
“[O]nce we come up with something clearer, then I’ll send it to you.”
She also said that Philippine negotiators had not reached out to their US counterparts after Trump announced the 15-percent tariff.
“The talks are continuous, so there’s no need to reach out,” Roque said.
Slightly lower tariff for PH
In a report on Monday, Maybank said the Philippines was facing an effective US tariff rate of 17.1 percent under the 15-percent system with exemptions maintained, down from the 18.5 percent in place prior to the Supreme Court decision.
Trump and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had agreed to a 19-percent rate last year, a substantial jump from the 1.2 percent levied on the country as of the end of 2024.
Most Asean economies were facing lower effective tariffs, with only Singapore posting a slight increase, but it would still enjoy the lowest duty at 6.9 percent.
Singapore and Malaysia (14.3 percent) will be the only Asean economies whose tariffs would be lower than 15 percent, while Cambodia (27.3 percent), Indonesia (20.7 percent) and Vietnam (20.7 percent) will continue to have the highest duties.
Thailand, meanwhile, faces 17.2-percent rate — slightly higher than that for the Philippines.
As to whether Asean countries were still obliged to honor concessions agreed with the US, Maybank said “there is little incentive for trading partners to dangle concessions for differentiated treatment.”
“In practice, Asean countries may still strive to fulfill some, if not all, of their bilateral commitments — to maintain cordial relations with the Trump administration,” it added.
Maybank said that it was maintaining its growth forecasts for Asean economies with the tariff competitiveness pecking order unchanged.
It expects the Philippines, which saw growth slump to 4.4 percent in 2025 amid a massive corruption scandal, to post a rebound to 4.9 percent this year with an improvement to 5.2 percent in 2027 — below the government’s targets of 5.0-6.0 percent and 5.5-6.5 percent.
Uncertainty ‘the real issue’
Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas, meanwhile, said that while Trump’s shifting tariff policies would not derail the Philippines’ recovery, they do make the path forward more challenging and uneven.
“The real issue isn’t the tariffs themselves — it’s the uncertainty,” he said. “When US trade policy keeps changing, companies delay investments, slow hiring and hold back expansion, and that spills over to us.”
Ravelas said the impact on the Philippines would be mostly indirect. Exports such as electronics could face volatility, investment decisions take longer, and the peso would likely remain under pressure.
The country is not among the most exposed economies, he said, as remittances are strong, domestic consumption is holding up and the services sector remains resilient. While the recovery is not at risk, he said the situation could slow momentum.
“That’s why policy stability, faster project execution and keeping investor confidence high matter even more this year,” Ravelas said.
Go, meanwhile, stressed the need to open new markets aside from pushing talks with the US.
“We have to create new markets for the Philippines to trade with, to sell to, which is why [we have] the activities being engaged by your economic team, by DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) signing more and more economic partnership agreements, free trade agreements,” he said.
SM Investments Corp. chief economist Robert Dan Roces echoed this, saying that building markets was needed for the economy to perform well.
“We have to develop more manufacturing, but that’s the easy part. The other part will be looking for the markets,” he said.