Next year is forecast to be the UK’s hottest on record due to an “unprecedented” El Nino event, the Met Office has warned.
This comes as the summer of 2026 is set to be the UK’s hottest since records began, with even average conditions in August meaning the record set last year will be surpassed.
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The weather pattern impacts rainfall and average temperatures across the globe.
The 2026 El Nino is forecast to raise sea temperatures more than 3C over the coming months. The Met Office said that would make the weather event “the largest since the 19th century”.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said.
A typical El Nino leads to a sea temperature rise of between 1-2C, with 2C being a “really big event”, Mr Scaife said.
The expected rise of 3C means this El Nino will “far exceed our recent experience” of the weather pattern, he said.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.”
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Mr Scaife added: “I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before. And assuming the forecasts are correct – and many other centres are giving the same signals – then we’re expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3C.
“That is unheard of in modern climate records.”
The UK is also forecast to experience more storms and rain over the coming autumn and winter due to the El Nino weather pattern.
Mr Scaife explained that the impacts of the weather phenomenon are strongest in the tropics, in regions like South America and the West Pacific.
“And then there are wave-like disturbances that come out from the tropics and affect places like the UK,” he said.
“So we already see signals for increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time.”
The unprecedented string of heatwaves and lack of rainfall in recent months has led to the UK’s driest July in 190 years.
It has also pushed nearly three-quarters (71.3 per cent) of England and all of Wales into drought.
Many areas of the country are facing water shortages as reservoir levels have fallen to 62.6 per cent – 16.3 per cent lower than is expected for this time of year, according to Defra.
Following an emergency meeting to discuss the heatwave last week, prime minister Andy Burnham warned: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.”
Parts of the country were hit by heavier showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with the northwest of England seeing the wettest conditions in the past 24 hours, with 52.5mm of rain falling over the seaside town of Morecambe in Lancashire, according to the Environment Agency (EA).
This represents a third of the region’s rainfall totals recorded over the period between 1 June and 18 August this year, which reached up to 156mm on average, the Met Office said.
Significant showers also broke over southern parts of the country, with Pevensey Bay in East Sussex recording 32mm of rain over the past 24 hours, again according to an EA gauge.
The sudden heavy rainfall this week also sparked fears of flash flooding as the water has been hitting parched, dry, hard ground.
But forecasters and officials warned it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs and groundwaters are completely replenished – which is when a drought is officially over.
The National Drought Group, which brings together the Met Office, regulators, government, water companies, farmers, scientists and conservation organisations several times a year, said that this week’s rainfall and cooler temperatures will not make any significant impact on current water scarcity.
It also warned that drought conditions could persist into the new year because, despite El Nino, current forecasts do not suggest this autumn will have the amount of rainfall required to drive recovery before December.
After meeting on Thursday, the panel revealed it is moving from monthly to weekly meetings to step up its coordinated response to extreme weather, with human-driven climate change creating increasingly volatile conditions across the UK.
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