Andy Burnham ’s resounding victory Friday in a special U.K. election is going to set in motion a chain of events that could lead to end of the premiership of Keir Starmer, who less than two years ago led the Labour Party back to power after 14 years.
Burnham is widely tipped to be the lead candidate to replace Starmer, especially as his victory in the seat of Makerfield in northwest England was so decisive. Despite Labour’s dismal poll ratings and recent hefty losses in local elections, Burnham defied electoral gravity — and some.
Burnham, 56, was able to not only see off the challenge of the candidate from anti-immigration Reform UK, but substantially increase the party’s share of the vote to nearly 55%. At local elections last month, Reform UK won virtually every seat that make up the constituency of Makerfield.
Now that Burnham is heading back to Parliament after nearly a decade away, during which time he was the popular mayor of Greater Manchester, he is now in a position to challenge the embattled Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party and of the country. He hasn't openly said he will do so but everything he says shows that he has his eyes firmly fixed on the top job.
Burnham described his victory as “the change moment” and said he and his team hoped to “lay out a new path" for Britain.
“I think we need in this country right now for people to feel a sense of hope that there is something better to work towards on the horizon," he said.
The next U.K. national election doesn’t have to be held until 2029, but British politics allows parties to change leader midterm without the need for a general election.
Here’s how it could happen:
Starmer says enough is enough
Though Starmer has repeatedly said he will stand against anyone who challenges his position, he may come to the realization over the coming days that he would lose a leadership election, a humiliating end for a man who led his party in a landslide victory in July 2024.
Starmer is one of the most unpopular prime ministers in history after a series of policy missteps and controversies, most notably his misguided appointment of Peter Mandelson as the U.K.'s ambassador to Washington, despite his links to convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
There is speculation that members of his Cabinet will inform him this weekend that the game is up and that it would be better for him — and Labour — to announce his resignation.
If he decided to leave office immediately, the Cabinet and Labour’s governing body would likely pick an interim leader to be prime minister, probably someone not expected to run for the Labour Party leadership. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy could fit the bill.
Alternatively, he could announce his intention to step down at a later date, say the party’s annual conference in September.
It's clear that Burnham will stand in any ensuing leadership race. The big question is whether anyone else would too. Wes Streeting, who quit as health secretary last month, has indicated he will throw his hat in the ring. Other potential candidates include Starmer's former deputy, Angela Rayner who had to quit last year over an unpaid property tax, and Al Carns, who resigned last week as the armed forces minister over Starmer's funding plans for the country's defense.
There are many in Labour's ranks who say it would be best if no one stood against Burnham so he could enter 10 Downing Street this summer before the party conference.
Starmer sticks to his guns
On Friday, Starmer was in the peculiar position of congratulating Burnham in the knowledge that it shines a very bright light on his leadership.
The prime minister said Friday that he had not spoken to Burnham, but insisted he would fight attempts to oust him.
“Yes, I will run, I will stand,” he said when asked about what he would do in the event of a leadership challenge. “I’ve said repeatedly I’m not going to walk away from that.”
In the event of a direct challenge, Starmer would automatically be on the ballot.
Hurdles to be cleared to join any contest
To challenge Starmer, candidates must win the support of a fifth, or 81, of the party’s House of Commons lawmakers.
Those candidates who meet the threshold of support within the House of Commons would then have to receive the backing of 5% of local constituency parties, or at least three party affiliates — groups such as trade unions and cooperative societies.
Eligible members of the party and affiliates would then vote for the leader using an electoral system that ranks the candidates. The winner is the first candidate to secure more than 50% of the vote.
King Charles III would then invite the winner to become prime minister and form a government.
Should there be a contest, it could last three to four months, with the party organizing town halls before the vote is open to its members.
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