Sir Keir Starmer has seen Labour trail in opinion polls for much of his period in Downing Street, while his satisfaction ratings have fallen to the lowest level of any prime minister in the past 50 years.
Labour was ahead in the polls for several months after winning the general election in July 2024, with the Conservatives in second place and Reform UK third – though by October of that year, Labour’s average poll numbers had dropped below 30%, then continued to slide to reach the mid-20s by early 2025.
At the same time, Reform’s poll numbers increased, though not enough to overtake Labour, while the Conservatives saw a small drop.
Reform drew level with Labour in the spring of 2025 and polled ahead on a few occasions, but Nigel Farage’s party had not yet established a consistent lead over either Labour or the Conservatives.
It was only in early May 2025, around the time of the local elections, that Reform pulled in front of both parties, where it has remained ever since.
By July 2025, one year from the general election, Labour was averaging 24% in the polls, down 10 percentage points from 34% 12 months earlier.
This was the first time a party had experienced a double-digit drop in support during its initial year in office since John Major’s Conservative government of the 1990s, according to Press Association analysis.
It is common for political parties to experience a slide in the polls after taking power – it has happened to every UK government bar one in the past 40 years – but a drop of this size was unusual.
The Tory administration led by Mr Major saw its poll numbers fall by 12 points, from an average of 43% in the weeks after the April 1992 election to 31% a year later.
Almost every government in the past four decades has seen their poll standings slip during their first year in power, but mostly by single digits – and often from a much higher starting point than Labour’s 34% in 2024.
For example, the Labour government led by Tony Blair saw its vote share in the polls drop by an average of six points during its first year in office in 1997-98, though from the lofty heights of 59% to 53%, still well ahead of all other parties.
More recently, the Conservative government led by Boris Johnson elected in 2019 saw its first-year poll ratings slip by seven points, from 46% to 39%.
A first-year drop in the polls for a governing party is typically accompanied by a rise in support for the main opposition in Parliament.
But the period from July 2024 to July 2025 saw something different and new in UK politics: a simultaneous and large fall in support for both the government and the opposition, with the Conservatives slipping from an average of 25% in the aftermath of the 2024 election to 18% a year later.
And while Labour and the Tories both slid in the polls, smaller parties rose – notably Reform, which climbed from third place on 17% to first place on 29%.
The Liberal Democrats also edged up during this period, from 12% to 14%, while the Greens increased from 6% to 9%.
The second year of Sir Keir’s premiership saw Labour’s ratings fall further while Reform opened up a clear and sustained lead.
Labour’s poll average dropped below 20% in October 2025 and has remained close to this level ever since.
After peaking in the low 30s in autumn 2025, Reform’s numbers fell in early 2026 and have stabilised around 27%.
Poll ratings for the other parties have also stabilised in recent months, with the Conservatives typically averaging just below 20% – often level-pegging with Labour – and the Lib Dems around 13%.
The other notable development in the polls during Sir Keir’s second year as Prime Minister was a spike in support for the Greens in the aftermath of the election in September 2025 of Zack Polanski as party leader.
Support for the Greens climbed as high as 19% in May 2026, but has since fallen back.
The latest poll averages, for the week ending June 21 2026, show Reform on 27%, Labour and the Conservatives tied on 19%, the Greens on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.
Sir Keir’s personal approval ratings will have made similarly challenging reading for the Prime Minister over the past two years.
Polling company Ipsos has measured public satisfaction with prime ministers since the late 1970s.
Its data tracks the proportion of adults in Britain who say they are either satisfied or dissatisfied with how the PM is doing their job.
The difference between these two numbers represents the approval score.
The most recent Ipsos survey, completed in mid-May, suggested 16% of adults were satisfied with Sir Keir’s performance and 76% were dissatisfied, giving him a net approval score of minus 60.
This is lower than any other score recorded by Ipsos for a prime minister two years after taking office.
And in September 2025, Sir Keir scored the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister, when his net rating dropped briefly to minus 66.
