- Labour has ended Reform UK's long-standing lead in national polls, with recent surveys from Survation and More in Common placing Labour ahead, while a YouGov poll shows them level. This marks a significant shift after Reform had led in over 300 consecutive surveys since April 2025.
- The change is largely attributed to a 'Burnham bounce' following Andy Burnham's appointment as prime minister, with polling experts like Professor Sir John Curtice noting a six-point increase for Labour since Keir Starmer's departure.
- Reform UK is experiencing a decline in support, coinciding with Mr Burnham's rise, and is also facing challenges including a by-election in Clacton and ongoing investigations into donations received by Nigel Farage.
- The Conservative Party is showing a 'mini revival,' with their support increasing and closing the gap on Reform UK, suggesting they are regaining votes previously lost to Mr Farage's party.
- Despite the positive polling, Mr Burnham expressed caution, stating he would not get 'carried away,' while a Reform spokesperson maintained a 'calm' outlook, expecting further fluctuations in public opinion.
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