To answer the question of how stable Sabah’s newly formed government is, all we need to do is look at the time Hajiji Noor was sworn in as chief minister after the election results were settled. The fact that Hajiji took his oath of office at 3am, unable to even wait for dawn to break, reveals how precarious he believed his position was. The rushed ceremony strongly suggests that he feared even a few hours of delay could cost him the chief ministership to his closest rival, Warisan president Shafie Apdal.
In the new Sabah state assembly, GRS holds 29 seats, while Warisan has 25. Barisan Nasional trails far behind with six seats. Another 11 independents also won. With 37 seats required to form a simple majority, the high number of possible combinations makes the post-election landscape extremely fluid. This is especially true in a state with a long history of fragile loyalties and shifting alliances.
The signs of instability are already apparent. For one, Shafie has had to publicly deny rumours that he was in post-poll discussions with BN, despite Hajiji already being sworn in — a moment when negotiations should technically be over.
“I have been working on (preparing for) this election for the past four years. Never, not once, have I reached out to other parties,” he said at a press conference .
This despite rumours that Shafie, a former Umno vice-president, had met Bung Mokhtar, the head of Umno Sabah, at the state Umno headquarters to discuss potentially forming a new government with BN, Upko and Pakatan Harapan.
His insistence that he “never, not once, reached out to other parties” however, is telling, especially since his denial came only after speculation surged that he and Sabah BN were exploring the numbers needed to form a government together.
Meanwhile, internal discontent is also brewing. Even allies within GRS are warning against BN’s inclusion in government, with Parti Gagasan Rakyat Youth publicly opposing BN’s participation in the GRS-led administration, arguing that the coalition already commands a stable majority through GRS, UPKO, independents, STAR, KDM and PH’s lone assemblyman. The youth wing openly reminded the public that Sabahans “sent a clear signal by rejecting BN”, citing BN’s past political manoeuvres and clashes with GRS.
"The GRS Plus government has already surpassed the simple majority required to form the state administration.
"Its current composition comprises 29 GRS seats, five Independents, three from UPKO, one from Pakatan Harapan, one from KDM, along with support from STAR with two seats.
"In addition, the government's position will be further strengthened with the appointment of six Nominated Sabah State Assembly members, ensuring stable governance in the State Legislative Assembly," Parti Gagasan Rakyat Youth said in statement.
All of this makes one thing clear: Hajiji’s position is not as solid as that 3am swearing-in ceremony tried to project.
If we consider the moral mandate rather than the technical one, Shafie arguably enters this post-election period with a stronger narrative behind him. Hajiji campaigned on the platform that Sabah should cooperate closely with Putrajaya. Warisan, by contrast, ran on a Sabah-for-Sabahans message, emphasising local autonomy and expressing distrust toward federal influence.
And judging from the results, Sabahans seemed far more receptive to Shafie’s narrative. Parties linked to the federal government suffered sweeping defeats — PH and its components were almost completely wiped out — a clear repudiation of Putrajaya’s involvement in Sabah politics. In contrast, Warisan’s 25 seats are extremely competitive, especially given that the party stood against well-funded incumbents and was expected to fare far worse. The near parity between Warisan and GRS therefore strengthens the perception that Warisan’s message resonated more deeply.
This perception matters. If many Sabahans believe the “throne” rightfully belongs to Shafie, Hajiji’s administration may find itself under constant pressure, especially if political actors keep their lines of communication open behind the scenes.
In my view, the next few weeks and months are critical. If Hajiji’s GRS government survives until the new year, then perhaps Sabah may experience a period of relative stability for the next five years. But if cracks continue widening — and early signs already indicate they might — the possibility of another government collapse cannot be ruled out.
Let us watch closely how the cookies crumble.
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