How the Iran war has ‘abruptly darkened’ global economy

WorldBusiness & Finance
15 Apr 2026 • 1:20 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the conflict initiated by Donald Trump in Iran risks triggering a global recession and an energy crisis on an unprecedented scale; the body said the international outlook had “abruptly darkened” as a result of the war.
  • The UK is projected to face the most significant economic downturn among major economies, with its growth forecasts for the next two years being substantially reduced.
  • The IMF predicts UK GDP growth of 0.8 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next, alongside an increase in inflation to 3.2 per cent and unemployment to 5.6 per cent.
  • Donald Trump suggested that negotiations with Iran could restart but also criticised the UK, urging it to expand North Sea oil and gas drilling to address the energy crisis.
  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves condemned Trump's “folly” in initiating the conflict without a clear exit strategy and will advocate for international cooperation at the upcoming IMF meeting in Washington.

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