How war in Iran could push the world into a global recession

WorldBusiness & Finance
14 Apr 2026 • 9:32 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the conflict involving Donald Trump and Iran risks triggering a global recession and an energy crisis of "unprecedented scale".
  • The IMF has significantly cut its economic growth forecasts for the UK, predicting GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year, down from earlier projections.
  • UK inflation is now expected to rise to an average of 3.2 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent next year, driven by higher energy, fuel and food costs.
  • The IMF also forecasts that UK unemployment will increase to 5.6 per cent this year, up from 4.9 per cent last year.
  • The global outlook has "abruptly darkened", with a severe scenario potentially reducing global growth by 1.3 percentage points by 2026, making a global recession a "close call".

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