Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself as the heir to Tony Blair after his party clinched two major by-election victories in Tory safe seats which he jubilantly declared as a “game changer”.
The Labour leader insisted that his party would stay “humble” — but boasted that he could see the “summit” of a general election victory, as he cited Mr Blair’s 1997 triumph.
“What I do want to do is follow in the footsteps of a leader of our party who took us from opposition into power,” he said, after the huge majorities were overturned in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
Britain’s top polling guru Sir John Curtice said Rishi Sunak’s party was set to be even more “heavily” defeated than the wipe-out of 1997, while former Tory chancellor George Osborne warned that the Tories faced electoral “Armageddon”. Another Conservative grandee told The Independent the results showed the party was “shot to pieces”.
The record-breaking losses sparked another round of bitter Tory infighting. While the right accused Mr Sunak of being in “denial” and pushed him to be “braver” on culture war issues and tax, moderates pleaded with the PM against a further lurch away from the centre.
Mr Sunak conceded that the defeats were “obviously disappointing” — but said mid-term by-elections were “always difficult” for governments and sought to blame “local factors”.
The fresh poll calamity for Mr Sunak came as:
- Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were accused of being the “architects of disaster” and throwing the party into electoral wilderness
- Labour grandee Peter Mandelson warned Sir Keir against “poisonous” overconfidence inside the party
- He faced a threat from the right as Reform, formerly known as the Brexit Party, secured more votes than Labour’s majority in both seats
Labour’s Alistair Strathern recorded a 20.5 per cent swing to overcome a 24,000 majority in Mid Bedfordshire, while the party’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority in Tamworth, with a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing away from the Tories.
The first by-election was triggered after Nadine Dorries sensationally quit in protest at being denied a peerage in her ally Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list, for which she blamed Mr Sunak. The second test was sparked when Tory MP Chris Pincher resigned after he was found to have drunkenly groped two men.
Prof Curtice said Sir Keir could be on course for an even bigger majority than in 1997 after “extraordinary swings”. He said these were “not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government ever lost a seat as safe as Tamworth.
“The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997,” said Prof Curtice.
Sir Keir said the two by-election victories were a “game changer” since there was nowhere in the country his party cannot “put up a fight”.
But New Labour architect Mr Mandelson warned Sir Keir there was a “poisonous and corrosive” belief inside his party that the general election is already won. He told Times Radio that overconfidence could lead Labour “into traps and mistakes”.
Asked if he was worried about complacency, Sir Keir told Sky News there was “a mountain to climb. We are climbing the mountain – we can see the summit with these victories. But we’ve still got to get there”.
Writing for The Independent, Tory grandee Dominic Grieve said the defeats showed the party was now “shot to pieces”, while Mr Sunak was hurt by the legacy of Ms Truss’s mini-budget disaster and the “charlatan” Mr Johnson.
Mr Grieve warned Mr Sunak against listening to “people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster”. The former cabinet minister said he feared a further “lurch to the right” if the party is thumped at the general election.
One former Tory minister described the by-election results as the “most anti-Boris Johnson vote imaginable”. They added: “This is the ultimate Boris Johnson legacy. From [his ally] Nadine Dorries to defending Chris Pincher.” He added that Labour was “heading for a three-figure majority, the way things stand.”
Former Tory Justice Secretary David Gauke said: “You have to look at this and say – the Tories are going out and Labour are coming in.”
He urged the PM to do more to distance himself from Mr Johnson, who was found to have lied to Parliament over Partygate. “The fact that he hasn’t done so means that the Conservatives are essentially going to be lumbered with (being seen as) ‘the party of Partygate’ and ‘the party of the mini-budget’.”
The Tory right was out in force on Friday, demanding Mr Sunak change tack. David Frost – the former Brexit minister ennobled by Mr Johnson – accused Mr Sunak of sticking to a “strategy of denial” which was not working.
Right-wing Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, another big Boris backer, demanded “far-reaching change now” after the shock results. Tory peer Peter Cruddas, a staunch Boris ally, said “clearly Rishi Sunak isn’t working as leader of our party”.
Lord Cruddas, a major donor currently withholding money from the party, told The Independent: “Rishi’s record is dire and Tories are heading for electoral disaster under Sunak. Things need to change starting at the top.”
Tory right-winger Danny Kruger, a key figure in the New Conservatives group of 2017 and 2019 MPs, said the results were a “wake-up call” and Mr Sunak had to be “braver” on immigration, net zero and other so-called culture war issues.
But Tory moderates were scathing of efforts to push the party further to the right. Former cabinet minister Robert Buckland said Mr Sunak was “on the money” with his focus on inflation – but warned against clutching at culture war issues.
“Focus on economic security. The culture war staff is the hard left versus the far left – it should have nothing to do with us,” he said. “Colleagues have to trust Rishi Sunak to listen to concerns, rather than going into blind panic.”
Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward said Mr Sunak must “keep calm and carry on” by focusing on an economic recovery – urging him not to get pulled into culture war distractions by those on the right.
“The maxim keep calm and carry on would be the best piece of advice, because the public is still angry about the period between 2020 and 2022 and a period of calm, stable government is what they are looking for,” he said.
Former No 10 chief of staff Gavin Barwell said the results showed that Mr Sunak’s “pivot” away from net zero policies and his Tory conference speech have had “no impact”. He said it was now clearly “a mistake” to have watered down climate change targets.
Conservative chairman Greg Hands claimed the low turnout meant there was no “enthusiasm for Labour”– and insisted that Mr Sunak was doing a “very good job”.
It came as backbench MPs argued among themselves in a Tory WhatsApp group. According to Sky News, one MP wrote: “Come the general the public who sat in their hands will come out to back us.” But another Tory MP told the broadcaster some colleagues were “deluded”.
Pleading for unity, one former Tory minister told The Independent: “Starmer is a dud – he doesn’t inspire. The Conservative Party needs to restore its self-discipline and support the PM.”
Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Richard Rice claimed the results, which saw his party finish third in Tamworth – getting more votes than Labour won by – showed that it could have a “significant effect” at the election. He also promised that his party would stand in every seat.
Reform is the rebranded Brexit Party. The decision by its then leader Nigel Farage to stand down in hundreds of seats in the last general election is credited with giving Mr Johnson his 80-seat majority,
