.png)
THE global aviation sector is poised for a gradual recovery in the months ahead, particularly in the Gulf region, as supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict begin to ease, the International Air Transport Association has said.
Its Director General, Willie Walsh, indicated that current assessments suggest pressure from elevated fuel costs could start to subside if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near term.
“Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen and remain open, it will still take several months to return to the required supply levels, given disruptions to refining capacity in West Asia, which is a critical component of global refined product supply.
“It is not only jet fuel, but other products as well, so this recovery process is expected to take several months,” he said at a press conference on the sidelines of the IATA World Data Symposium.
Walsh noted that while crude oil prices have begun to trend downward, jet fuel prices are likely to remain slightly elevated due to ongoing constraints at refining facilities in the region.
He stressed, however, that the current challenges are far less severe than those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, when global aviation capacity fell by as much as 95 per cent following widespread border closures.
“This is a situation the industry has faced before, and airlines are taking appropriate measures. However, no one can predict the situation over the next two to three months.
“Nevertheless, market projections indicate that fuel prices are expected to decline and return to levels close to those seen this year,” he said.
Walsh added that airlines in West Asia accounted for approximately 14.6 per cent of global international capacity in 2025, but some operations have since been redirected due to the conflict.
He said the reallocation of aircraft and routes has created short-term opportunities for European and Asian carriers to fill capacity gaps, although they are unable to fully replace the scale of Gulf-based airlines.
“However, they are unable to fully replace the capacity provided by Gulf carriers, so this issue is seen as temporary.
“Aviation hubs in the Gulf are expected to recover quickly because underlying demand remains strong. In fact, most airline chief executives continue to report robust demand,” he said.
The temporary reduction in capacity, estimated at around 14.5 per cent in the region, is expected to have a short-term impact on global air travel volumes, potentially leading to disruptions or reduced traffic.
Walsh said March data may not yet fully capture the extent of the impact, with clearer trends likely to emerge in April and May as more comprehensive data becomes available. - April 8, 2026
