MANILA, Philippines —The prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC) is preparing a multi-pronged expert witness strategy in its case against former president Rodrigo Duterte to prove that the killing of thousands in connection with his anti-drug campaign was part of a deliberate and state-backed policy amounting to crimes against humanity.
Court documents filed before Trial Chamber III indicate that prosecutors are considering experts in at least five specialized areas to establish what they describe as a widespread and systematic attack against civilians during Duterte’s “war on drugs.”
One set of experts would focus on the historical and political context of the anti-drug campaign, including the origins of “Oplan TokHang” and allegations surrounding the so-called Davao Death Squad. Their testimony is expected to examine how anti-drug operations evolved within a political environment that allegedly dehumanized drug suspects and fostered a culture of impunity.
Another proposed expert would analyze police records and use-of-force data to scrutinize the recurring police justification that suspects were killed after they fought back (nanlaban). Prosecutors are expected to argue that the frequency of such claims points to a statistical improbability and may indicate systematic falsification of evidence, including allegations of planted weapons and staged crime scenes.
The prosecution is also preparing statistical experts to establish the likely scale of killings during the anti-drug campaign. While official police figures placed the death toll at around 6,000, human rights organizations and independent monitors have estimated the number could reach as high as 30,000.
Experts would reportedly compare media reports, NGO investigations, and government data to provide what prosecutors consider a more accurate accounting of victims.
To counter anticipated claims that police officers acted independently or outside official policy, prosecutors are also considering policing and use-of-force specialists.
These experts would compare international policing standards and operational procedures with methods allegedly employed during anti-drug operations, including accusations that local government-funded “ghost employees” and vigilante-style units were used in coordinated killings.
Forensic experts are likewise expected to play a central role in the prosecution’s case. Their testimony could include ballistic analysis, examinations of post-mortem conditions, and assessments of alleged crime scenes to determine whether victims were killed in legitimate armed encounters or executed at close range.
Under the ICC framework, expert witnesses differ from factual witnesses because they provide specialized professional opinions intended to help judges interpret complex evidence. Prosecutors are expected to rely on such testimony to establish patterns, command structures, and the systematic nature of the alleged crimes.
