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UNITED States intelligence assessments do not support President Donald Trump’s assertion that Iran will “soon” possess missiles capable of striking the American homeland, according to three sources familiar with the reports, raising questions over a central plank of his case for possible military action.
In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Donald Trump told Congress that Tehran was “working on missiles that will soon reach” the United States, as he laid out arguments that could justify future strikes against the Republic.
Rueters on Saturday cited, however, two of the sources said there had been no change to an unclassified 2025 assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency concluding that Iran could take until 2035 to develop a “militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile” from its existing space-launch vehicles.
One source added that even with technological assistance from China or North Korea, both of which maintain close ties with Tehran, Iran would probably require up to eight years at the earliest to produce “something that is actually ICBM level and operational”.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intelligence, said they were unaware of any assessment indicating that Iran was close to fielding a missile capable of reaching the continental United States, though they did not rule out the possibility of new reporting of which they had no knowledge.
The New York Times first reported that American intelligence agencies believe Iran remains years away from such a capability.
Responding to the controversy, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said: “President Trump is absolutely right to highlight the grave concern posed by Iran, a country that chants ‘death to America,’ possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a more measured tone, saying on Wednesday that Iran is “on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental U.S.”
The debate comes amid renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear programme and a substantial American military build-up in the region.
Trump has provided limited public detail as to why he might contemplate what would be the most forceful US action against Iran since the 1979 revolution.
In his address, the president also accused Tehran of rebuilding a nuclear programme he said had been “obliterated” by US airstrikes last June on three major uranium enrichment sites, though he offered no evidence to substantiate that claim.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, maintaining that its uranium enrichment is solely for civilian energy purposes. In an interview with India Today TV released on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected suggestions that Tehran was expanding its missile range.
“We are not developing long range missiles. We have limited range to below 2000 kilometres intentionally,” he said.
“We don’t want it to be a global threat. We only have (them) to defend ourselves. Our missiles build deterrence.”
The US intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency have previously assessed that Iran halted a structured nuclear weapons development programme in 2003.
Nonetheless, the Vienna-based watchdog says Tehran has in recent years enriched uranium to levels approaching weapons grade.
Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with systems capable of striking Israel, US bases in the region and parts of Europe.
It has also developed space-launch vehicles that have successfully placed satellites into orbit, prompting concern among experts that such technology could, in time, be adapted for intercontinental missiles.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, said Iran remained some distance from mastering the technology required to deliver a nuclear warhead via an intercontinental missile.
“Iran can launch a very long-range missile because of its space launch program,” he said. “But it needs lots of work to develop an adequate RV (re-entry vehicle).”
He and other analysts also noted that Israeli airstrikes in recent years had significantly damaged facilities involved in the production of both liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missiles, potentially slowing further advances. - February 28, 2026