Amidst escalating tensions between Israel and its regional adversaries, suspected Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes on Iran's consulate in the Syrian capital on April 1, resulting in the death of seven military advisers according to Iran's claims.
Iran has pledged to retaliate following an Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus the previous Monday. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, speaking at the conclusion of Ramadan, likened the consulate attack to an assault on Iranian soil and vowed punishment for what he deemed as a mistake by the "evil regime."
"When they attack the consulate, it is as if they have attacked our soil," Khamenei said in a speech marking the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and it shall be," he added.
Israel, maintaining its usual stance of neither confirming nor denying such actions, offered no comment on the strike. However, the U.S. Pentagon indicated its belief in Israeli responsibility for the attack.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reiterated his group's support for Iran and called for a military response, amplifying fears of wider conflict in the Middle East.
It's widely speculated that Iran seeks visible retaliation not only to avenge senior officials' deaths but also to uphold its regional power status. Failure to respond could damage Iran's credibility and embolden Israel to further escalate tensions without consequence.
Analysts caution that Iran, known for supporting militant groups like Hezbollah and Houthis, could trigger a global conflict with its retaliation. Dr. Alan Mendoza of the Henry Jackson Society emphasized the seriousness of Iran's warnings and outlined potential avenues for Iranian attacks on Israel.
They claimed Russia, China and North Korea could stand by their pals in Iran in any future conflict involving the country.
According to Dr Mendoza, there are several ways for Iran to attack Israel.
"It could be a series of global targets. It could be an attempt to strike Israel again in an October 7-style war - this time with Lebanon.
"There are many options the Iranians could employ and the obvious options would be to use Hezbollah to create more pressure on Israel and to take out some targets.
"Or they could look to other proxies in the Houthis in Yemen who have been firing missiles towards Israel and also groups in Iraq who have been trying to fire missiles."
Dr Mendoza said Iran might also commit "external global terrorism against Israeli or even Jewish targets".
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned that if Iran were to attack Israel from its territory, Israel would respond in kind, potentially escalating the conflict further.
"If Iran attacks from its own territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran," Katz said in post on the social media platform X.
Elon Musk expressed concerns about the possibility of a third world war amid the escalating tensions, urging measures to prevent such a catastrophic scenario.
“World War III is a civilizational risk that we may not recover from," Musk posted on X. "Could this lead to WW3? We need to prioritize avoiding World War III."
Nehru Sathiamoorthy is the author of “While Waiting for the World to end”. He was a columnist at FMT and a frequent contributor to the South China Morning Post, The Star, Malaysia-Today, MalaysiaNow, MalaysiaKini and Focus Malaysia.
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