At the outset of the war with Iran, US President Donald Trump said he wanted "unconditional surrender" from the regime in Tehran. On Wednesday in Versailles, he formally signed the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with that very same regime.
"Strategically, the war is ending in Iran's favour in the sense that the United States and Israel now realise that all options are not on the table with Iran, that the military option does not work," Nasr said. He also underlined that "Iran's ability to get hold of the Strait of Hormuz and use it against global energy markets and the global economy" gave the Iranian regime "a strategic asset that it did not have before the war; a leverage to defend itself, to deter against future attacks".
Asked about the position of Israel after the US-Iran deal, Nasr said that "the outcome is definitely not favourable to Israel" and that "the United States now has come to the conclusion that Israel's theory of how to deal with Iran is not one that the United States either believes in anymore or wants to follow". According to Nasr, "the United States no longer sees war with Iran as the path to go forward" and "beyond Israel itself, this is particularly damaging to Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu".
Iran is 'coming out of this war more confident'
While Trump has accused the Obama-era deal from 2015 of giving cash to Iran, the US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under this week's deal. It has also promised to unfreeze Tehran's assets and create a type of investment fund. "It's very difficult not to see this as a major setback for the United States and a major gain for Iran," Nasr explained. "At this point in time, in this agreement, it looks like that the United States is giving a lot more to Iran in order for Iran to agree to stop the war," he added.
The US president's claims that there has been a regime change in Iran, a little like in Venezuela, are simply not true, according to Nasr. Trump is "trying to portray things as much more favourable to the United States", but "on political freedoms, there's not going to be much change in Iran at all".
"The Islamic Republic, domestically and regionally, is coming out of this war more confident, more self-assured and stronger" because "the war has not weakened the regime either at home or in the region" but rather will confirm "the authoritarian hold over the country", he concluded.
