THIS March saw one of the most intensive aerial bombardments in recent military history, marked by precision-guided missiles and a formidable display of firepower from stealth jet fighters and kamikaze drones. The United States and Israel have launched massive strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, crippling facilities essential to its missile and nuclear capability programs. Despite suffering extensive damage, Iran has implemented a well-planned strategy to sap the will of the US and its public support by choking the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most crucial waterways through which a fifth of the planet’s oil supply passes regularly.
US and Israel’s decimation of Iran’s air, naval and infantry forces was relentless. Yet Iran retaliated by attacking oil facilities in the Gulf states and cargo tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply upward from $70 to $120 a barrel. Even with its multibillion-dollar defense systems, the US is struggling to counter Iran’s swarm attacks of unmanned aerial drones. As it loses its conventional warfare, Iran now shifts its military strategy into terror insurgency and weaponizes the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on Gulf states and US allies.
The Strait of Hormuz is merely 20 miles wide at its narrowest point, and vessels must navigate close to Iran’s southern coastline. The waterway is very narrow, and cargo vessels are easy targets for Iran’s Shahed drones, rockets and missiles. This geographic advantage allows Iran to block and launch attacks on passing ships using small boats, drones and naval mines to disrupt maritime commerce. One military option would be to deploy US ground troops along Iran’s coastline near the strait, but this would expose them to suicide attacks by Iran’s proxy groups, such as Yemen’s Houthi rebels and other terror squads.
Iran is also sowing chaos in the world’s energy markets, with oil prices surging amid fears of oil supply shortages, slowdown in global exports, and rise in maritime insurance premiums. Some Asian economies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, are more vulnerable since a large portion of their oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines is also heavily dependent on imported fuels, with much of its oil and natural gas coming from Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries in the Persian Gulf. With skyrocketing oil prices, ordinary households will pay higher prices for basic goods.
On one hand, reports indicated that as early as January, Iran increased and unloaded its oil exports to China before it was attacked on Feb. 28. China secured its crude oil imports early this year, establishing a strategic stockpile amounting to 1.2 billion barrels — about 115 days of inventory. The Philippines, by contrast, has fewer than 50 days’ worth of oil reserves.
US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with more attacks on critical infrastructure if it continues to block ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Iran ignored his threats when it attacked oil tankers and demonstrated its ability to disrupt global trade in the waterway. The resulting uncertainty put more pressure on the prices of other commodities, prompting member-states of the International Energy Agency to release 400 billion metric tons of oil from their strategic reserves. Trump promised to provide military escorts for oil tankers passing through the strait. But this is difficult to sustain if the war escalates, and more military and naval resources are needed to pacify Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran is said to be laying naval mines in the strait to deter ships from passing through, which it did during the Iran-Iraq war. US military power faced limits when confronting strong ideological resistance from the Islamic republic. Despite the extensive damage on Iran’s defense systems, Trump is cautious about putting American troops on the ground to engage Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in direct combat. A large number of US soldiers will die or suffer permanent injuries in a ground war since the enemy forces have the advantage of fighting on their home front, as well as on familiar terrain.
Iran has shown how geoeconomic warfare is a powerful strategic option in sowing division among Western powers and their Gulf allies. By holding hostage a critical chokepoint in the global energy market, Iran has just proven its capacity to terrorize the world and inflict economic pressure on all countries. It also illustrated the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare, where weaker states can fight and resist mightier states using unconventional tactics — drone swarms, maritime disruption, mass mobilization, and cognitive warfare. On the battlefield, the US and Israel seem to dominate over Iran’s forces, but in the broader domain, Iran has outstrategized a superpower by exploiting its economic vulnerabilities and public anxieties.