WHATEVER the terms of the agreement with Iran that President Donald Trump can wrangle and trumpet in a disastrous war he initiated and has now retreated from, it is clear that he and his administration’s foreign policies are the biggest casualties in the geopolitical gyrations and dynamics associated with the Maga mission he defined for his second term.
What is likely to emerge more rapidly now is a period of transition to a new world order that will contain the following key elements, marking the end of American exceptionalism and hegemonic control of the global system.
0 A multipolar power architecture
The United States will no longer be the sole or primary security guarantor in the Middle East and Asia Pacific – the two most contested regions of the world. China, Russia and regional powers will fill vacuums through competing alliances, ad-hoc deals and localised spheres of influence. The post-World War II “rules-based order” will give way to transactional, multialigned blocs.
0 De-dollarisation and parallel financial systems
The joint US and Israel-conducted war – seen as illegal, dangerous and a breach of international law by most governments, including the strongest allies of the US – is accelerating efforts by nations to settle trade in non-dollar currencies. The prospect of gold, digital yuan or a new reserve basket emerging to fragment global finance is more likely than ever before.
While there has not been a collapse of the US dollar’s role as the primary global currency, the loss of its “exorbitant privilege” of low-cost borrowing through printing and monopoly of the world’s reserve currency is one of the most consequential war aftershocks that will weigh heavily on American financial strength and the resultant depreciation of US financial assets.
0 Weakened transatlantic and Asian alliances
Nato and US security allies in Asia (Japan, South Korea and Australia) are distancing themselves from an America First unpredictable Washington that launched a unilateral war in which they were not consulted and have suffered from the collateral impact of elevated oil and gas prices and supply line disruption.
Some of the European powers are in the midst of pursuing more independent defence and diplomatic tracks while Asia Pacific nations are deepening economic ties with China to hedge against US volatility.
0 Rise of non-state and regional players
With great-power competition gridlocking the UN, regional organisations (African Union, Asean, Gulf Cooperation Council and Eurasian Economic Union) are working to gain authority and consensus on security, trade and climate. Hybrid actors – private security firms, tech platforms and cartels – are probing for quasi-diplomatic power.
0 Norm shift on sovereignty and intervention
Trump’s war has discredited the “preventive war” doctrine and unilateral intervention, which has been a staple of post WWII Western foreign policy and geopolitics.
An emerging norm is appearing to favour sovereignty, non-interference and conditional neutrality – in effect weakening US and Western-style democracy and “freedom” promotion. This will also imply rejecting “deputy sheriffs’” roles to enhance American and Western dominance.
International law is tilting towards non-punitive mediation to further the cause of peace and acts to forestall or defuse ruinous wars, such as in the case of Iran, in which the war costs (human, economic and reputational) have outweighed any tactical gain.
0 Energy and resource realignment
A green wave tsunami is in the making. This is not only about climate change. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz effectively ended the era of “optional” energy security, turning the green transition into a survival imperative for global economies.
Meanwhile, Iran’s position in global energy markets is expected to shift. Most post-war scenarios see Tehran prioritising East Asian and other global buyers, bypassing dollar-based pricing. Green transitions will accelerate as nations seek to reduce strategic vulnerability tied to fossil fuel chokepoints.
The big winner of the oil and gas crunch – and not the loser as anticipated by American war planners and commentators looking to justify the war to local constituents – is China.
0 Domestic legitimacy crisis in the US
Trump’s own coalition is fracturing further over war fatigue and economic costs. Critics of military overstretch (and munition depletion) and the crushing diplomatic defeat are now prominent even in conservative and pro-Trump media and think-tanks.
They are focusing on a period of inward restructuring – reducing foreign aid, closing bases and rewriting executive war powers. This is likely to go well beyond the November mid-term elections. The US will remain powerful but will have to act more like a normal great power – reactive and less hegemonic.
What will the new world order look like?
The transition to a new world order is unlikely to be peaceful or linear. It could feature proxy conflicts, currency wars and institutional decay.
But the core movement and direction is clear: from a US-centric hierarchy and hegemony to a contested, multipolar equilibrium, where no single power dictates terms.
While the US, China and Russia will remain key players, assertive middle powers will be looking for a role in shaping this new order of multi-aligned transactionalism.
Established and potential middle power candidates include India, Brazil, Indonesia, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Israel, South Africa, Canada, Japan and South Korea.
China’s rise in both soft and hard power will ensure that it will have a lead position in whatever variant the new world order emerges.
Nations that are less hampered by apron strings to the US can also be expected to leverage on the economic and geopolitical weight of BRICS+ to create a less violent and more stable world of multiple alignments.
For now, BRICS+ is an evolving political and economic force. As it becomes more developed, it should be able to leverage its combined demographics and growing financial independence to reshape global governance towards a multipolar world order.
This can directly challenge Western-centric, US-led hegemony, with its duplicity and double standards most recently exposed by its deafening silence on the Israeli policy of genocide in Gaza, where Western nations led by the US, UK and EU members have provided military, political and financial support for the Israeli actions.
Trump’s war with Iran, though not the cause of this geopolitical shift, is the final catalyst that has made the old order impossible to sustain.
Lim Teck Ghee’s Another Take is aimed at demystifying social orthodoxy. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com
