SAUDI Arabia and Ukraine offer crucial case studies, as well as lessons, for the Department of National Defense (DND) and for Philippine government geopolitical strategy. They clearly show how quickly major-power security commitments can be reversed and subordinated to political winds, economics and personal whim.
In both theaters, regional partners that staked their sovereign security or military posture on American encouragement were frequently faced with the redirection of their politics. Despite “ironclad guarantees,” both are now facing the drastic de-escalation of their ability to defend themselves (after Western media have declared continuous Saudi and Ukrainian victories over Yemeni rebels and Russian forces for years). As they suffer growing damage to their core economies and loss of territories, the United States and the European Union are reducing or withdrawing military assistance after incurring damage to major bases and naval facilities.
The Saudi case
Despite it being the foundation of America’s financial power and instrumental in making the US dollar the world’s reserve currency, as well as a leader of US-led parts of the Muslim world, Saudi Arabia is now reeling from escalating attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The kingdom has asked the US for help several times, but were refused by President Donald Trump. Riyadh is then forced to approach Iran, its longtime regional archrival, for help. This is surprising, considering that the US has supported the kingdom in bombing Yemen, which is a major cause of the conflict.
After Saudi Arabia arrived at a ceasefire with Yemen that lasted over three years, the US supported the bombing of Yemeni mourners who were returning from the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini. This caused the conflict to erupt anew, and this time the Houthis succeeded in making advances. They were able to damage the King Khalid and Abha airports, as well as vital Saudi Aramco installations, which provide some of the kingdom’s major sources of income.
Ukraine’s case
In 2022, Kyiv’s negotiations with Moscow in Istanbul were about to be sealed by both sides, with multilateral guarantees. However, encouraged by the United Kingdom’s then-prime minister Boris Johnson, the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to believe that sustained military backing would result in a decisive battlefield victory over Russia, Ukraine walked away from those early compromises.
The US spent years pressuring and sanctioning the global community to embargo cheap and Russian energy, causing the massive decline of industries in Europe, especially Germany. However, a “war of choice” against Iran by the US and Israel that did not end as quickly as they expected caused inflation to spike and fuel crunches, prompting Washington to issue sanctions waivers and is now directly exploring deals involving Russian diesel. Meanwhile, Ukraine, already suffering extensive damage, is being restrained from retaliating against Russian energy assets. It also suffered the downgrading of Starlink access for a few days, resulting in extensive losses on the data-blind economy.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now publicly admitted that he or Ukraine may be forced to accept the loss of some 20 percent of the country’s richest agricultural and mineral territories to stop the conflict. The number of Ukrainian lives lost is estimated at between 500,000 and over 1 million.
Lessons the Philippines might learn?
For Manila, an alliance purist, an emotional, debate-filled approach that treats an American security umbrella as a guarantee risks binding the nation to decades of unnecessarily volatile situations that depend on the whims of the US president.
Even the purchase of weapons worth billions of dollars, in a potential conflict on a scale to those mentioned above, instead of a simple defensive one between the smaller of Southeast Asian nations, is an unproductive overextension of the country’s scarce resources, better for public attention than for improved outcomes.
The US, though it has the biggest, most experienced and most competent military in the world, is positionally hobbled by policy overreach and domestic political differences. It cannot sustain supplying weapons to other countries, and it will take years to replace the missiles it used in the war on Iran, such that Washington is no longer able to consistently sustain its level of support to Ukraine and Saudi Arabia.
Navigating this reality, however, does not mean abandoning the US to align with China, but it definitely indicates the need to achieve balances in economics and politics.
Strategic prudence demands recognizing that geography is almost permanent and that regional security must be viewed through a multidimensional lens and over longer periods rather than a black-and-white one. While firmly asserting sovereign maritime rights, the Philippines must not act as a forward base or proxy in another power’s interests.
If nationalism and sovereignty are the true core issues, what is the DND’s position on our claims to Sabah, which is far more valuable as territory? To the islands occupied by Vietnam and the Southwest Cay island that the Philippines used to occupy and later taken over by Hanoi? If we don’t raise stronger protests to Malaysia, Vietnam or Indonesia, why, then, are we picking fights with China?
We must preserve diplomatic accesses and options, manage direct bilateral mechanisms, and engage very actively economically, since it is what our countrymen need the most. Our Defense and Foreign Affairs departments, as well as other governments, must be assiduous students of history and learn what worked and what didn’t over time. By diversifying partnerships across Southeast Asia, middle powers, emerging global blocs like those led by Canada, the new emerging groups in the Middle East, and alternative financial and logistics networks, Manila can attain more strategic depth necessary to maintain an independent foreign policy. No independence or dignity can be attained without solid economies, cool logical minds that reviewed and tested histories, and abilities in solution-seeking and charm.
In a drawn-out war beyond a year, logistics and economics, manufacturing capacity outstrip brute military power. We must allow all intelligent questions to be raised and not shut out potentially important considerations. We must check the records of success at handling of cases, economics, relations by those we have tasked to do the same, not rely on rhetoric and heated debates. Decisions must be made collegially by combined competencies to achieve, track and improve the net overall lives of our Filipino family.
New Worlds by the Integrated Development Studies Institute (IDSI) aims to present frameworks based on a balance of economic theory, historical realities, ground success in real business and communities, and attempts at the common good, culture and spirituality. We welcome logical feedback and possibly working together with compatible frameworks.
idsicenter@gmail.com