BY locking the passage of tankers to and from the Strait of Hormuz, mining the strait’s waters and threatening passing ships with missile and drone attacks, the Islamic Republic of Iran has sparked a global energy crisis. Countries depending on imported oil, like the Philippines, have faced forecasts worsening by the day.
The solution lies in the United States and Israel winning the war against Iran the sooner, the better, but more and more observers have become pessimistic about this happening, not a few of them even predicting the war to be another one of attrition, the same way Putin’s war against Ukraine has gone. The US, moreover, has a nasty habit of fighting a long war in Asia and losing it in the end.
The comparison to the Russia-Ukraine war comes to mind because the war the US and Israel have waged against Iran is similarly based on lies and miscalculations. A priority goal that the US and Israel set for their attacks on Iran this time around was the destruction of the latter’s nuclear facilities. But haven’t the two countries claimed to have already done the same thing in previous attacks? They also do not seem to have an accurate estimation of how huge Iran’s stockpile of missiles and drones is actually. There have been reports, moreover, that the initial attacks on Iran were delayed because the US expected Iran to attack mainland USA first!
Trump and Putin are seeds of the same pod: They believe nothing unless they are lies offered to them by the yes-men they like to surround themselves with. Both are “geniuses” incapable of distinguishing their delusions from reality. That is a pity because the US has first-class defense and intelligence establishments. There is no want of competent professionals in these establishments who are certain not to counsel their leader astray.
Take the notion that a country will fall if you eliminate the leader. That may be true sometimes, but an ancient and great country like Iran could have learned its lesson about what to do when the leader passes on in whatever manner. Khamenei and the commanders who perished with him were replaced almost as soon as they died, or no later than recent leaders who died by a natural cause or assassination. The opponents of the regime sang and danced, but its supporters cried and swore revenge, and they were shown on TV and video to be quite many.
Grief over Khamenei’s death did not seem to have affected the good sense of the regime’s leaders and followers. The clerics, led by the new supreme leader, have retreated to their monasteries, and left the military to lead the country in facing up to the challenge posed by the US and Israeli military attacks. In a sense, there has apparently been a regime change in Iran; the country is no longer a theocracy but a military dictatorship in terms of real power.
The attacks from external powers, the US and Israel, seemed to have summoned the sense of nationalism among Iranians, whether or not they supported the ayatollahs. It helped the regime that the initial attacks by the US were less than careful to avoid harming civilians. A school full of children was destroyed, which triggered demonstrations in several cities. The air strike was reportedly scheduled earlier, when the school was empty, but Trump was delayed in ordering the strike.
The Iranians in their long history might have had a teacher like the Chinese Sun Tzu. They keep their military capabilities in low profile. While the world watching live TV deemed the last Iran-Israel war a debacle for Israel because its much-vaunted Iron Dome was pierced by Iranian missiles through a strategy of using decoy drones and missiles, the Iranians feigned disappointment, and allowed Trump and Netanyahu to pump their chests and claim victory for themselves. The Iranians have regrouped, refilled their arsenal, and are back to wreak great havoc on Israel.
Despite his propensity to treat his allies like lackeys and call them names, Trump seems to consider himself the complete diplomat whose charms no other leader can resist. Well, his charms have failed to work even on its own allies in the Middle East. They have refused to be dragged into the war. Those hosting US military facilities have not allowed the US use of their territories in pursuit of the war. Apart from preventing a possibly intractable escalation, the reason is common sense. These are Muslim nations being asked to fight another Muslim nation doing the dirty work of fighting the Palestinian cause. Netanyahu’s continuing and loud dismissal of the two-state solution will not win any neighbor to his side. Trump himself is far from clearly expressing his support for the two-state solution.
A likely consequence of the war on the part of the US and the Middle East countries concerned may be to review the need for these US facilities in every country of the Persian Gulf. In this war, the hosting of these facilities is proving not to be in the national interest of the host. If the US, on the other hand, cannot use these military facilities of theirs as a springboard for operations in the region, the US would do well to remove its forces from the Middle East and transfer them where they would be welcome, such as the South China Sea.
The Iranians have devised a plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to ships of countries other than the US and Israel upon payment of $2 million for each passage of the Strait. This plan violates the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos) which provides that narrow bodies of water like the Strait of Hormuz should be open to navigation by all countries. But Iran has not ratified Unclos.
Although the US has not ratified the Unclos like Iran, the US plan seems to be a better one. It is opening the Strait of Hormuz by force. It has brought thousands of its special forces to the strait to remove all the mines the Iranians have planted there and have invited North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to bring their navies to protect their tankers passing the strait. The NATO allies have refused. After Trump insulted them for alleged cowardly participation in previous misadventures of the US abroad, NATO allies would have nothing to do with Trump anymore. They are saying that NATO is a defensive organization and not an interventionist one. There is nothing in the NATO charter, however, preventing allies from joining as a coalition of the willing in an activity that would be of common benefit to participants. China and Russia refused, too, on the ground that Iran is a Brics ally. If no country joins him, Trump will do it alone.
Although the Iranians deny that Trump has proposed to them to sit together and discuss peace, Trump insists he has talked with them about a peace plan that has 15 points. Woe to Reza Pahlavi’s followers! It seems that as in Venezuela, Trump is leaving the freedom fighters out in the cold.
