By Dr. Raman Letchumanan
Former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob has finally admitted that Umno has pressured and ordered him to call the 15th General Elections (GE15) about a year earlier. Parliament was dissolved on Oct 10, 2022.
Opposition parties and even parties within the ruling coalition were up in arms questioning the rationale for the early dissolution, and whether Ismail Sabri was taking orders from his political party. That led to six states refusing to call concurrent state elections.
In a recent episode of Fireside Chat with Sinar Daily, Ismail Sabri said “despite all the risks, Umno insisted for dissolution of parliament”. He further said “I told the Supreme Council, that if we lose, I should not solely be blamed, all of you should bear the responsibility because I have already explained our chances.”
At that time, I questioned the propriety of Ismail Sabri as prime minister taking orders from his political party in the discharge of his constitutional duties. In a comment in Malaysiakini on Oct 13, 2022 I wrote as follows:
“Immediately after Prime Minister Ismail Sabri announced the dissolution of Parliament at 3pm on Oct 10, the Palace issued a statement regarding this matter, the main points being:
1. The royal audience was not scheduled,
2. The king expressed regret over recent political developments, and
3. His Majesty had no choice but to accede to the request to dissolve Parliament.
Without proffering to decipher, which no one else can, let me trace recent political events.
Umno has launched a concerted campaign and convened several high-level meetings calling for early elections, despite concerns on the contrary by many. The campaign was relentless. In fact, Umno was so sure that Parliament would be dissolved soon and had geared up for elections even before the announcement.
I believe the matter was discussed in cabinet and there was no consensus as 12 ministers petitioned the Agong to delay elections.
Section 40 (1) of the Constitution states: “In the exercise of his functions under this Constitution or federal law, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong shall act in accordance with the advice of the Cabinet or of a Minister acting under the general authority of the Cabinet, except as otherwise provided by this Constitution.”
I would assume such advice must be a consensus decision by the cabinet. Was the PM acting on behalf of the cabinet or Umno regarding the dissolution of Parliament?
Be that as it may, the king, having discretionary powers, has decided, and all should respect that.”
Some parties have taken the matter to court citing, among others, the propriety of the prime minister taking orders from his political party contrary to the Constitution. However their application was struck off by the courts. I wonder if this statement was made by Ismail Sabri then, what would the court outcome be!
More UMNO or less UMNO
I then went on further to predict the outcome of GE15.
“So, what's next for Malaysia? The only choice seems to be selecting the present government or the opposition. While there are core supporters on both sides, many may be undecided or not happy with either one.
But vote, we must. My take is every rational person should ensure the right persons are voted in to govern us.
Before I explain further, we should recognise that there is Umno in the current government and Umno DNA in the opposition in the likes of former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, Bersatu chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin, among others.
So essentially, there is only one choice (PAS vacillates among the winners). Don't delude yourself about ABU (Anything But Umno) or No to Anwar/DAP slogans. These are political gimmicks. At the end of the day, you are either voting for ‘more Umno’ or ‘less Umno’. Umno is not a bad thing, but look at what it has become, comparing our founding leaders and current leaders.
What happens when Umno loses, like in the 14th general elections (GE14)? Well, it brought down the Pakatan Harapan government after just 22 months. Then it brought down the Perikatan Nasional government. Then it installed a minority Umno government.
But that is not enough, it wants full control and agitated for early elections and got its way. Returning the mandate to the people is all hogwash. Umno just can't play second fiddle one day longer.”
Well, let’s look at the current unity coalition government. Umno is the kingmaker even though it lost badly in GE15. It snatched the top position from Perikatan Nasional and handed it over to Pakatan Harapan making Anwar the Prime Minister. We are not sure what deals were made, but one thing, Umno dominates the unity government. So, it is more Umno even with less parliament seats.
Will Umno aim for the top position itself? Or will Umno dictate to Anwar like what it did to Ismail Sabri? Recent episodes does not give us confidence that Anwar is very much in control of his political fortunes.
‘It’s the economy, stupid!’
As to whether any new government after GE15 can sustain itself, I made the following comment:
“If there are enough good people, we can hope for a good government, but if we vote for a party of corrupts, all we can get is Ali Baba and his 40 thieves. What voters may not accomplish (in getting the government they truly want, not a unity government among rival political parties), the economy will certainly force it on the ruling class if there is continued wanton spending and uncontrolled borrowings. Like they say, it is the economy, stupid! It is foolhardy to win an election by throwing money around, especially money we don't have.”
Anwar raised the alarm about the RM1.5 trillion national debt. Economy is about earning more money (not borrowing) and spending less. Even minimal cuts announced so far like the MPs’ constituency allowance is earning the ire of his own MPs. There is nothing we have heard in terms of plans and strategy to grow the economy thus far.
Anwar made a grave mistake in not appointing competent ministers and deputies from his own party. Their poor performance has drawn brickbats from the people even during this honey-moon period. DAP was side-lined so as not to spoke the Malays. Anwar’s supporters are not seeing the decisive actions when PH ruled in 2018, probably hamstrung by the unity government. This is not the reformasi that Anwar promised during GE15.
Anwar is on very shaky ground from all aspects. We hope the talented economy minister Rafizi Ramli, and his pro-bono finance and economy advisor will help him to turn around the finances and economy.
I didn’t need a crystal ball or the multi-million INVOKE to make the prediction then. We the ordinary rakyat can clearly see where the country is heading.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim should listen to the sentiments on the ground, not to yes-men surrounding him. Please don’t take the rakyat as uninformed and stupid.
Raman Letchumanan is a former senior official (environment) in Malaysia and ASEAN, and Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University Singapore. He is an accredited accountant (Malaysia/UK) and has a Ph.D. in environmental economics, among other qualifications. This advice is provided pro-bono, without any expectation of public office or any other benefits.
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