Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is tipped for a stunning defeat in today’s legislative elections despite receiving a glowing endorsement from Donald Trump.
Sixty per cent of betters on prediction market Polymarket backed centrist challenger Gadi Eisenkot to become the next premier, ahead of 27 per cent for Netanyahu.
Israeli opinion polls suggest a tight contest, with neither Netanyahu’s ruling Likud bloc nor an opposition alliance around Eisenkot likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority.
Polls opened at 7am local time on Tuesday and will run until 10pm in the country’s first opportunity to deliver a verdict on the response to the greatest domestic security failure in generations - the October 7 attacks - and the subsequent conflicts with Hamas and Iran.
Before polls opened, US president Trump reiterated his “complete and total” support for Netanyahu, writing that he had been “strong, brave and brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition”.
He alluded to the unresolved US-Israeli conflict with Iran, writing: “Unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job.”
“If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi [Netanyahu], America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”
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Key Points
- Polls open in Israel
- How will the Israeli election work and when will result be announced?
- Netanyahu touts Trump's blessing ahead of election
- Preview: Survivalist Netanyahu faces another test after 19 years in office
- 'This is emergency hour': Netanyahu warns of vote surge in 'leftist strongholds' as turnout reaches 45yr high
- Yashar party alleges ballot tampering at polling stations
Miliband 'deeply concerned' after MPs say they were detained on way to West Bank
17:30 , Maryam Zakir-HussainForeign secretary Ed Miliband said he was “deeply concerned” after MPs said they were detained for eight hours by Israeli authorities and denied entry to the West Bank.
Labour’s Clive Lewis and the SNP’s Lara Bird, along with MSP Kate Nevens of the Scottish Greens, said they were interrogated and denied access to the territory on Monday.
Mr Miliband told the Commons on Tuesday that the government has now raised the issue with the Israeli authorities.
The MPs had travelled as part of a delegation organised by political group Progressive International.
According to Progressive International, the group – which also included former MP Sam Tarry and Spanish senator Josu Estarrona Elizondo – was stopped while making the crossing from Jordan and had planned to undertake “a programme of meetings with Palestinian academics, students and civil society organisations” as well as join the olive harvest following what it claims are “mounting attacks” against farmers in the territory.
The Israeli embassy said the group were refused entry after “providing false information about the purpose of their visit” and failing to co-operate with officials.
Recap: Betting markets predicting stunning Netanyahu defeat despite Trump’s backing
17:00 , James ReynoldsIsraeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is tipped for a stunning defeat in today’s legislative elections despite receiving a glowing endorsement from Donald Trump.
Sixty per cent of betters on prediction market Polymarket backed centrist challenger Gadi Eisenkot to become the next premier, ahead of 27 per cent for Netanyahu.
Israeli opinion polls suggest a tight contest, with neither Netanyahu’s ruling Likud bloc nor an opposition alliance around Eisenkot likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority.
Polls opened at 7am local time on Tuesday and will run until 10pm in the country’s first opportunity to deliver a verdict on the response to the greatest domestic security failure in generations - the October 7 attacks - and the subsequent conflicts with Hamas and Iran.
Before polls opened, US president Trump reiterated his “complete and total” support for Netanyahu, writing that he had been “strong, brave and brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition”.
He alluded to the unresolved US-Israeli conflict with Iran, writing: “Unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job.”
“If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi [Netanyahu], America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”
Netanyahu warns of 'Arab voter surge' in Israel's election
16:30 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners made a last-ditch push on Tuesday to get their supporters to the polls, warning of surging Arab voter turnout, a tactic Arab politicians denounced as racist and inflammatory.
In a series of posts, Netanyahu highlighted long queues at polling stations in Arab communities and published an image that he said showed Arabs, including women in niqabs, waiting to vote.
"If we don't wake up now, we'll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmed Tibi," he said in a post, referring to two leading Palestinian Arab politicians in Israel.
Cars flying Netanyahu's Likud party flags drove through Jerusalem blaring the Islamic call to prayer and urging supporters to cast their ballots because “Arabs are voting”, witnesses said.
Turnout reached 55.7% in the first nine hours of voting, the elections committee said, the fastest pace on record. Arabs, mostly of Palestinian heritage, make up about 21% of Israel's population of 10 million and have traditionally voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.
A reckoning is coming for Netanyahu – October 7 is why
16:10 , James ReynoldsAs Israelis head to the polls, anger over the government’s handling of the greatest murder of Jews since the Holocaust casts a long shadow over the election — and could spell the end of the Netanyahu era. Gary Cohen reports
When will the Israel election result be announced and is there an exit poll?
15:20 , James ReynoldsIsraelis will head to the polls on Tuesday 27 October to cast their vote to elect the Knesset, after three years of war waged in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Much of the election is centred around Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking another term after a combined 19 years in power, but neither he nor the opposition has a clear path to a governing majority.
Due to the fragmented political system, the country may have to wait weeks or even months before a new government is confirmed.
When will the Israel election results be announced and is there an exit poll?
In the region: Officials meet in Tehran to de-escalate Middle East conflict as Israelis head to the polls
14:40 , James ReynoldsTop officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday in a bid to de-escalate the Middle East conflict, as Yemen's Houthis launched new attacks on Saudi Arabia and Egypt approved defence support for the Gulf kingdom.
The talks were the first high-level contact between Iran and the three nations — which signed the Mecca mutual defence pact in August — since a war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran also spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Saudi Arabia said the visit was intended to open negotiating channels to "prevent the return of military escalation".
It was represented by Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, younger brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; Pakistan by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir; and Turkey by intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin, Saudi and Iranian officials said.
Further afield: Houthis claim strike on Saudi refinery with ballistic missile as war expands
14:36 , James ReynoldsYemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery, the biggest in the kingdom, with a ballistic missile.
The Houthis also said they had attacked Saudi military aircraft and repelled an advance by Saudi-backed forces near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important Red Sea shipping route.
Intensifying hostilities between Yemen and Saudi Arabia have further disrupted oil supplies and heightened the risk of a wider regional conflict, eight months since the Iran war began.
The Houthis' military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said the strike on the Ras Tanura refinery had caused a fire at the complex, which also includes a shipping terminal and is located on the Gulf, west of the Strait of Hormuz.
The man who could topple Netanyahu: How former army chief who lost son in Gaza became Bibi’s biggest threat
14:13 , James ReynoldsAs millions of Israelis cast their votes, Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a key challenger to Netanyahu’s long-standing dominance of Israeli politics. Suha Kidwai reports
The former army chief who lost son in Gaza and could now topple Netanyahu
Record broken as voter turnout swells to 44.9 per cent
14:03 , James ReynoldsVoter turnout was at 44.9 per cent in Israel by 2pm, becoming the highest ever recorded turnout at this hour.
By 2pm in the 2022 elections, voter turnout sat at 38.9 per cent.
The previous record was set in 1988, with a turnout of 42.2 per cent.
UN inquiry says Israel kept committing genocide in Gaza after truce
14:00 , James ReynoldsIsrael continued to commit genocide in Gaza after last October's US-brokered ceasefire in the enclave, a UN commission said in a report published on Monday that Israel dismissed as part of a "misinformation campaign".
The report by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel examined violations against Palestinian children since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023 up to September this year.
It said Israeli authorities had kept committing "genocidal acts with the genocidal intent to destroy, in whole or in part, the Palestinians in Gaza", and that the situation had also continued to deteriorate in the occupied West Bank.
Another report by the commission in September last year found that Israel had committed genocide in Gaza and that top Israeli officials including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu incited these acts — accusations that Israel called scandalous.
UK watchdog says Reform's Tice breached parliament rules over Israel trip declaration
13:40 , James ReynoldsReform UK deputy leader Richard Tice breached parliament's code of conduct by inadvertently failing to declare a trip to Israel during a debate on pro-Israel influence, Britain's parliamentary standards watchdog said on Tuesday.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards said Tice should have declared a visit to Israel in 2025 that was paid for by Reform Friends of Israel when he participated in a debate on UK democracy and Israeli influence.
The commissioner, Daniel Greenberg, concluded that Tice had breached rule six of parliament's code of conduct, which requires lawmakers to declare relevant interests when speaking in parliamentary proceedings.
Greenberg said the Israel trip had met the test for declaration because it could "reasonably be thought by others to influence" a member's actions or words.
Tice accepted the finding, acknowledged the breach and apologised, the commissioner said, adding that the inquiry was now over.
Preview: Gadi Eisenkot launches a challenge to Netanyahu's reign... but is yet to carve out a clear path to power
13:20 , James ReynoldsFormer military chief Gadi Eisenkot has presented himself as one of the possible outlets for change.
Eisenkot, who lost a son in Gaza, has projected an image as a political outsider and security hawk whose humble background and family sacrifices stand in vivid contrast to Netanyahu's decades in high office and lingering corruption cases.
Both Eisenkot and Netanyahu, along with the leaders of nearly all other Jewish-led parties, oppose the establishment of a future independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
They both say that Israel must retain ultimate security control over all territory between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea. And they agree that Israeli troops must not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is disarmed.
Eisenkot has framed the continued rule of Hamas in Gaza as a failure of state, vowing that within 18 months of taking office he would ensure the administration had been replaced, either through a US-brokered plan or through military force.
But to unseat Netanyahu, he is likely to rely on the support of the Democrats, including the rump of the once dominant centre-left Labour Party that has has withered as the country has shifted to the right.
Preview: Survivalist Netanyahu faces another test after 19 years in office
12:40 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu heads into this election with 19 accumulated years in office since he was first chosen as prime minister in 1996.
The office has no term limits and a prime minister can serve an unlimited number of four-year terms so long as they maintain the confidence of a majority in the Knesset, or parliament.
Since his last election in 2022, ‘Bibi’ has led Israel through its response to the October 7 Hamas attacks, the subsequent war in Gaza and hostage crisis, a ground invasion of Lebanon, strikes on Syria, attacks from and against Iran, and, most recently, into the ongoing conflict with Tehran alongside the United States.
Domestically, he is still embroiled in a long-running corruption case, after being indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, accused of receiving expensive gifts in exchange for political favours. The 77-year-old has called the case a witch hunt and proceedings stalled during the war in Gaza.
Netanyahu is also under an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for suspected crimes against humanity and war crimes, and faces criticism from abroad for presiding over a rapid expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
Many Israelis now say it is time for a change in the seat of government. A poll of 4,000 Israeli voters this month predicted that Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure only 19 seats, down from 32 currently, while the opposition, led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, could secure the most with 20.
Yair Golan says he continues to campaign after 'alleged stabbing attempt' in Tel Aviv
12:05 , James ReynoldsWriting on social media, Democrats leader Yair Golan says: “I continue to roam the field.
“The violence will not deter us! On the contrary - continue with all our might. Not to give up on a single vote.
“Tonight we will end Netanyahu's reign of incitement and hatred!”
He wrote in response to a Channel 12 report a man armed with a knife had approached him while campaigning in Tel Aviv before security intervened.
Explained: How will the Israeli election work and when will result be announced?
12:00 , James ReynoldsIsraelis will head to the polls on today to cast their vote to elect the Knesset, after three years of war waged in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Much of the election is centred around Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking another term after a combined 19 years in power, but neither he nor the opposition has a clear path to a governing majority.
Due to the fragmented political system, the country may have to wait weeks or even months before a new government is confirmed.
Gergana Krasteva explains how the elections will work:
How will the Israeli election work and when will the result be announced?
Three scenarios that could play out as Netanyahu faces losing power
12:00 , James ReynoldsAccording to preliminary polls of 4,000 Israelis, published on Thursday, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the election.
The Independent looks at the three scenarios that could play out if the polls are right:
Israeli elections poll tracker: Three scenarios as Netanyahu faces losing power
Gal Gadot votes in Israeli election
11:44 , James ReynoldsIn a post on Instagram, Israeli actress Gal Gadot shows herself voting in today’s elections.
NEW: Man arrested after 'trying to stab candidate' in Israeli election
11:40 , James ReynoldsA man has been arrested after allegedly trying to stab a candidate in the Israeli election.
The Democrats party said on Tuesday that a man had approached leader Yair Golan “in an intimidating manner” while he was campaigning at Railway Park in Tel Aviv.
A large knife fell from the man’s clothes and onto the ground, before security tackled him to the ground and alerted police, who detained him, the party said.
Golan said the incident was “the direct result of the poison machine” of government, adding: “The incitement and violence won’t intimidate us.”
In pictures: Netanyahu casts his ballot
11:23 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu casts his ballot alongside his wife, Sara, at the Gonenim school polling station.
Independent Premium: This is what will happen after Israel’s most important election in years
11:20 , James ReynoldsIt has been billed as one of the most consequential elections in Israel’s history, but the reality on the ground may be very different, writes chief international correspondent Bel Trew:
This is what will happen after Israel’s most important election in years
Yashar party alleges ballot tampering at polling stations
10:49 , James ReynoldsAs voting got underway, challenger Gadi Eisenkot’s party filed a complaint with the Central Elections Committee over suspicions of a systematic attempt to disrupt voting for the party and undermine election integrity, following reports of ballot tampering at polling stations nationwide.
The party claimed that ballot slips marked ‘Derech’ - their voting symbol - had on several occasions gone missing, been damaged or been turned over inside voting booths.
“Anyone who tries to steal ballot slips is trying to steal the election. This is a serious violation of election integrity and the fundamental right of Israeli citizens to vote,” Yashar said in a statement.
Comment: Trump and Netanyahu are the world’s worst political double act
10:40 , James ReynoldsAs the leaders of the US and Israel both face reckonings at the ballot box, Chris Stevenson says their brash, confrontational style is no longer playing so well with their supporters. So what’s the best that could happen?
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Trump and Netanyahu are the world’s worst political double act
Explained: How will the Israeli election work and when will result be announced?
10:10 , James ReynoldsIsraelis will head to the polls on today to cast their vote to elect the Knesset, after three years of war waged in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Much of the election is centred around Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking another term after a combined 19 years in power, but neither he nor the opposition has a clear path to a governing majority.
Due to the fragmented political system, the country may have to wait weeks or even months before a new government is confirmed.
Gergana Krasteva explains how the elections will work:
How will the Israeli election work and when will the result be announced?
Who is firebrand candidate Itamar Ben-Gvir?
10:00 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu’s hawkish national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had existed on the fringes of Israeli politics before the war in Gaza brought his fiery, unmoderated rhetoric to younger voters who may have once considered him beyond the pale.
The firebrand police chief has pushed Israeli politics further to the far right with his inflammatory comments and policies, which include urging “all of Lebanon must burn” for the deaths of IDF soldiers across the border, mocking foreign activists captured at sea trying to bring aid to Gaza, and trying to move crocodiles to a prison holding Palestinian detainees.
Ahead of the election, polls show a boost in support for his Jewish Power party, which has managed to reach beyond its traditional base of settlers in the occupied West Bank and find a new audience in the cities. As many as a third of his supporters will be voting for the first time this election, according to Agam Labs.
“I used to think he was a bit crazy, but then I actually looked at what he was saying, and it all made sense,” said Gavriel Marmon, an 18-year-old student and first-time voter from Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem.
Kedmi, whose sister survived the Hamas-led attack on the Nova music festival, told Reuters: “It's almost like President Trump's ‘peace through strength’. But peace through Jewish strength.”
Jewish Power is now forecast to win eight or more seats standing on its own, putting it on par with the Democrats.
Netanyahu urges supporters to go out and vote due to 'higher-than-usual turnouts in the left's strongholds'
09:59 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday urged his supporters to go out and vote due to ‘higher-than-usual’ turnouts in what he called ‘the left’s strongholds’.
“Right or Palestine, for real. Right-wing voters, this is an emergency hour >> Go out and vote right now!” he wrote on social media some five hours after polls opened in Israel.
By 10am local time, reported voter turnout was just shy of 17 per cent, the highest since 1981.
30 per cent of IDF soldiers had already turned out to vote by that time, ahead of the 25.7 per cent recorded in 2022. The IDF began voting in the national election a week ago, with polling stations deployed at military bases across the country and beyond Israel’s borders.
The full story: October 7 terror attacks loom large over Israel elections
08:40 , James ReynoldsPrime minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces one of the toughest tests of his tumultuous political career to date as Israel prepares to vote in the first national elections since the 7 October terror attacks.
With around four million voters expected to cast their ballots on Tuesday, public reckoning over the 2023 Nova massacre remains front and centre. Recent polling by the Israel Democracy Institute found 68 per cent of Jewish Israelis consider October 7 a central factor in deciding which party to vote for.
Netanyahu has spent the better part of three decades branding himself Israel’s “Mr Security” but questions remain over his handling of the worst civilian attack in Israel’s history.
Read the full story:
October 7 looms large over Israeli elections as Netanyahu fights for political future
Israeli president Herzog casts vote in election
08:05 , James ReynoldsIsraeli president Isaac Herzog and his wife Michal cast their votes for the Knesset in the neighbourhood of Rehavia.
“A true holiday for democracy—no one can be allowed to spoil or undermine it,” he told reporters.
“We are all equal today—this is our day to go and make an impact and vote.”
Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the Israeli elections
08:00 , James ReynoldsGood morning and thank you for joining us in our coverage of the Israeli legislative elections.
Today will be a test of Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government after three years of conflict, and as Israeli society continues to grapple with the aftermath of the country’s biggest security failure in generations, the October 7 attacks.
Israeli politics have moved to the right since then but any challenger will still struggle to form a stable coalition government, and Netanyahu is a proven survivalist. The main challenge is coming from former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.
Polls opened today at 7am local time, 5am in the UK, and will run until 10pm local time. Exit polls will then give the first indications of the outcome, but it could still take days or weeks for a final result to become clear.
Israel committed war crimes in occupied Palestinian territory, says UN
07:44 , James ReynoldsIsrael has committed war crimes and crimes against humanities in Gaza and the West Bank, the UN said in a report published on the eve of the first Israeli elections since the October 7 terror attacks.
The UN commission of inquiry claimed Israel had committed the crimes against humanity of extermination, persecution, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
The report further accused Israel of “intentionally targeting Palestinian civilians” and continuing to commit “genocidal acts” even since the so-called ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with “the intent to destroy the Palestinian people, in whole or in part”.
Read the full story:
Israel committed war crimes in Occupied Palestinian Territories, UN report says
What happens after the results are published?
07:00 , Adam WithnallAfter the final tally is in – the formal and final results must be published one week after the election, on 4 November – president Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
That nominee has up to 42days to form a government. No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties, and negotiations on forming a government often take weeks. Every Knesset seat counts and small parties can have a big impact by becoming kingmakers.
If the nominee fails, others can get a chance to try. If no government emerges, another election is called, with the present cabinet staying on as a caretaker government.
Tensions high as voting gets underway
06:00 , Adam WithnallAlready, emotions were running high for some as polls opened this morning.
In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the border with Lebanon, one man kicked and tore down a poster of his main rival Gadi Eisenkot, the AP reported.
For some Israelis, this election presents the first chance for the country to change course after Netanyahu's latest, and especially turbulent, four-year term.
Netanyahu's supporters see him as a steady hand and a consummate statesman who they believe has triumphantly guided Israel through multiple wars.
His detractors see him as a polarising leader who, beset by an ongoing corruption trial, dragged on the war in Gaza and its hostage crisis for political reasons. They say he is undermining Israel's independent judiciary and weakening its democratic underpinnings.
Eisenkot is viewed by supporters as a capable leader with sterling security credentials who, along with his likely governing partners, could act as a bulwark against creeping illiberalism. As someone personally touched by the conflict – his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza – his backers believe that he feels deeply the pain that still courses through Israel three years after the attacks.
Parties that would likely throw their support behind Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel's international standing and work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men while bolstering the independence of the judiciary.
Polls open in Israel
05:00 , Adam WithnallIt's 7am in Israel, meaning voting has now begun in the country's first parliamentary election since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 that shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power is at stake, with centrist rivals promising to usher in a new era.
Voting runs until 10pm, Israeli TV channels will air exit polls giving the first indications of the outcome.
But it could take days or even weeks for the final result of the election to become clear if no party or group has an outright majority.
The final tally is expected by 30 October and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on 4 November.
Recap: Netanyahu faces fight for survival as Israel votes
04:00 , Adam WithnallIsraeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a fight for his political survival in today's election, with voters weighing his leadership after the 2023 Hamas-led attacks, wars in Gaza and with Iran, and Israel's deepening international isolation.
Yet Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, remains a formidable survivor, with nationalist politics increasingly entrenched and Israel's fragmented system potentially leaving him best placed to form a government.
Opinion polls show a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and security hawk with backers on the right and in the centre.
Netanyahu is campaigning on his wartime leadership and his alliance with US president Donald Trump, who has endorsed him and joined Israel in waging war on Iran. He may again depend on far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to form a government. Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries that accuse them of inciting violence against Palestinians, while Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party has gained support in opinion polls.
Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to power. If neither can form a governing coalition in the 120-seat parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election is held next year.
Polls open from 7am to 10pm.
IDF deploys 850 military polling stations across West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria
03:00 , Daniel KeaneThe IDF has deployed more than 850 military polling stations — including mobile ballot units operating inside active operational zones in the West Bank, southern Lebanon, southwestern Syria, and Gaza — ahead of Tuesday’s national election.
Around 3,000 soldiers, mainly young conscripts, are serving as polling station staff, according to the military.
Around 25 percent of the stations are mobile, designed to reach outposts, bases, and remote deployments beyond Israel's borders so combat troops and reservists can cast ballots under strict double-envelope secrecy rules.
Early military voting commenced last Wednesday and runs through the close of national polls at 10:00 PM on Tuesday.
Arab voter turnout will be political wildcard, determining up to 15 seats
02:00 , Daniel KeaneTurnout among Israel’s 1.2 million eligible Palestinian citizens could determine whether either major political bloc can form a government following Tuesday’s elections.
Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, with grassroots organisers pushing for a 70 percent surge — a level unseen in decades that could lift the Joint List and Ra’am to a combined 15 seats. Such a spike would raise the overall vote threshold, threatening smaller fringe factions on both ends of the political spectrum.
The surge follows a contentious pre-election battle in which the High Court of Justice overturned a Central Elections Committee ban on the Arab slates, while disqualifying Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh over comments describing the October 7 attacks as an "important historical event."
While both major Jewish coalitions have publicly ruled out partnering with the Arab lists, their final seat share could effectively deny either bloc a workable 61-seat majority. (edited)
Poll trackers point to Knesset deadlock
00:01 , Suha KidwaiWith voting less than 24 hours away, consensus across major Israeli broadcasters points toward another parliamentary impasse, with neither Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition nor the opposition bloc holding a clear path to a 61-seat majority.
Across final weekend polls from Channel 12, KAN 11, and Maariv, Netanyahu's loyalist bloc — comprising Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and the Religious Zionist alliance — averages in at roughly 49 to 50 seats.
The primary opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eiskenkot stands between 54 and 56 seats, leaving the remainder split among Arab parties and unaligned factions who refuse to sit with either side.
The ultimate balance of power will hinge on whether fringe lists — including the joint Reservists-Economic ticket and Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael list — can clear the 3.25 percent electoral threshold needed to enter the Knesset.
Netanyahu touts Trump's blessing ahead of election
Monday 26 October 2026 23:00 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu boasted of his endorsement from Donald Trump on the eve of Israel's election, suggesting the two leaders could restart their war against Iran if he wins.
Netanyahu said on Sunday that Trump was willing to take action "that would finally, finally, remove the Iranian threat", but only as long as Netanyahu himself remains in power.
"And I have already instructed the Mossad and the IDF (military) to bring down this regime, to bring down this regime because that is the only way to put an end to this threat," Netanyahu said, referring to Israel's main intelligence service and military.
But asked for comment on Netanyahu's remarks, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said: “The United States will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.”
Israeli elections poll tracker: Three scenarios that could play out
Monday 26 October 2026 22:00 , James ReynoldsExclusive: A poll of 4,000 Israelis shows that it is unlikely that Netanyahu’s bloc will hold on to power when the country votes
Israeli elections poll tracker: Three scenarios as Netanyahu faces losing power
Israelis on frontlines of October 7 say politics has shifted 'two clicks to the right'
Monday 26 October 2026 21:00 , James ReynoldsIsrael’s in frontier kibbutz Be’eri said on the eve of the election that politics have shifted “two clicks to the right” since the October 7 attacks three years ago.
One-in-ten residents in the community were among the 1,200 people killed in Hamas' surprise attack. Dozens were among the 251 taken hostage to Gaza. It was Israel's deadliest single day.
A collective community established in 1946, now with around 1,000 residents, Be'eri exemplifies the socialist values that dominated Israel's politics in its early decades.
Nearly all its votes went to the centre-left in the previous 2022 election, when only around 4% voted for parties in Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition.
But ahead of Tuesday’s vote, Gal Cohen said the attack has made residents question longstanding views that there could be peace with the Palestinians in this generation.
"Everyone in Be'eri has made two clicks to the right. But I still think that most of us will stay with the opposition, the parties that want to replace this government," he said.
Preview: Gadi Eisenkot launches a challenge to Netanyahu's reign... but is yet to find a clear path to power
Monday 26 October 2026 20:00 , James ReynoldsFormer military chief Eisenkot has presented himself as one of the possible outlets for change.
Eisenkot, who lost a son in Gaza, has projected an image as a political outsider and security hawk whose humble background and family sacrifices stand in vivid contrast to Netanyahu's decades in high office and lingering corruption cases.
Both Eisenkot and Netanyahu, along with the leaders of nearly all other Jewish-led parties, oppose the establishment of a future independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
They both say that Israel must retain ultimate security control over all territory between the Jordan River and Mediterranean Sea. And they agree that Israeli troops must not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is disarmed.
Eisenkot has framed the continued rule of Hamas in Gaza as a failure of state, vowing that within 18 months of taking office he would ensure the administration had been replaced, either through a US-brokered plan or through military force.
But to unseat Netanyahu, he is likely to rely on the support of the Democrats, including the rump of the once dominant centre-left Labour Party that has has withered as the country has shifted to the right.
Preview: Survivalist Netanyahu faces another test after 19 years in office
Monday 26 October 2026 19:00 , James ReynoldsNetanyahu heads into this election with 19 accumulated years in office since he was first chosen as prime minister in 1996.
The office has no term limits and a prime minister can serve an unlimited number of four-year terms so long as they maintain the confidence of a majority in the Knesset, or parliament.
Since his last election in 2022, ‘Bibi’ has led Israel through its response to the October 7 Hamas attacks, the subsequent war in Gaza and hostage crisis, a ground invasion of Lebanon, strikes on Syria, attacks from and against Iran, and, most recently, into the ongoing conflict with Tehran alongside the United States.
Domestically, he is still embroiled in a long-running corruption case, after being indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, accused of receiving expensive gifts in exchange for political favours. The 77-year-old has called the case a witch hunt and proceedings stalled during the war in Gaza.
Netanyahu is also under an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for suspected crimes against humanity and war crimes, and faces criticism from abroad for presiding over a rapid expansion of settlements in the West Bank.
Many Israelis now say it is time for a change in the seat of government. A poll of 4,000 Israeli voters this month predicted that Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure only 19 seats, down from 32 currently, while the opposition, led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, could secure the most with 20.
The key players in Israel’s first election since October 7
Monday 26 October 2026 16:06 , James ReynoldsIsraelis are set to vote on October 27 in the first national elections since the deadly October 7 attacks, and the devastating Gaza war that followed.
The Independent looks at the key figures in the looming election:
Key players in Israeli election as Benjamin Netanyahu fights for his political life
Good evening and welcome to our coverage of the Israeli election
Monday 26 October 2026 16:05 , James ReynoldsBenjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government faces an existential election on Tuesday as voters deliver their verdict three years since the country’s greatest security failure in generations.
The opposition is clustered around centrist former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. But he and an array of other parties ranging from the rump of the centre-left to the right, also have no clear path to unseat the survivalist Netanyahu.
Follow along for our coverage of the Israeli legislative elections
Poll: October 7 remains central factor in Israeli voting decisions
Monday 26 October 2026 21:27 , Suha KidwaiThe handling of October 7 remains a decisive factor for the majority of Israeli voters heading into Tuesday’s general election, according to an Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) poll.
The results find that roughly 62 percent of respondents consider October 7 central to their ballot decision, with foreign affairs and national defence ranking as top priorities among Jewish voters.
Despite the enduring impact of the attacks, the political landscape remains deeply polarised, with the divide between supporters and opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government largely unchanged.
The survey also recorded widespread erosion in national morale, with public optimism declining across democratic governance (down to 36%), national security (34%), the economy (27%), and social cohesion (19%).
