KUALA LUMPUR: The recent Sino-Japan tension over Taiwan and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's comments on defending Taiwan reflect the underlying power tension that has always been prevalent, but so far only managed by conventional norms.
In his latest commentary, Collins Chong Yew Keat, a Foreign Affairs, Security and Strategy Analyst at Malaysia's Universiti Malaya, said the buck stops with Takaichi.
"She did what no Japanese leader had ever had the guts to do, to publicly state that Japan's own security and national survival are inseparable from the fate of Taiwan," wrote Chong.
"In saying so, she simply stated a strategic truth that has long been whispered and understood but rarely acknowledged publicly in Tokyo, Washington, or even Taipei, for fear of upsetting the apple cart and of changing the norms of unspoken rules."
Chong said for Japan, the Taiwan question is not a distant geopolitical chess play or an indirect player but is a direct, critical and immediate national security threat.
"Any potential future Chinese attack on Taiwan would inevitably affect Japan's own security and survival, and pull Japan into the conflict. This is not political rhetoric, but a hard military reality.
"Already, for the past years, the Chinese blockades and encirclements of Taiwan have already affected Japan in economic, trade, and sovereignty concerns, and any full-blown invasion in the future will create a direct threat to Japan.
"It lies on the fact that a Chinese strike on Taiwan will not stop at the Strait, either early on or midway. If China were to carry out a full strike on Taiwan, the inevitable preemptive deterrent moves by Washington will see equally fast responses by Beijing, and Japan is a natural target high in the list for deterrent and preemptive strikes."
He pointed out that Japan's closest island to Taiwan, Yonaguni Island, was barely 110 km away. This meant that a blockade around Taiwan is literally a blockade and threat against Japan's own maritime rights.
"Taiwan will not be the sole victim if China were to invade it by force; Japan is at the direct crosspaths.
"US forces stationed across Japan are essential to any American response and the efficacy of thwarting the lethality of Beijing's first strikes on Taiwan. Beijing knows this."
A strategic first punch that cornered Beijing
According to Chong, Takaichi's statement was both strategically calibrated and an effective manoeuvre in trapping Beijing.
He added that by publicly declaring Japan's likely response to a Taiwan contingency, she had forced Beijing into a tight spot.
Chong also said that Takaichi's move had pushed Washington toward clarity and created additional pressure to put in more support and to review its own strategic ambiguity concept on Taiwan.
"This has been used for decades to deter both Taiwan and China, and the new position and readiness of Takaichi created further pressure on Washington to accept that ambiguity is no longer effective in an era where Chinese missiles can reach Tokyo in minutes.
"Public support in Japan has been growing for Japan to take a more assertive and unapologetic stance. This reflects a growing national realisation that silence invites danger, while clarity deters it."
He said going forward, both sides would not stand down.
"Takaichi will not be apologetic in defending the truth and the interests of Japan, while Beijing will need to respond with strength to appease domestic anger and nationalistic sentiments.
"Despite this, Beijing has everything to lose while Tokyo has everything to gain, now that Beijing is forced to play to Takaichi's brilliant early control over the power stakes in the region."
Even without nuclear weapons, Japan's military posture is not symbolic, but a powerful one. The Self Defence Force has in its arsenal one of the world's most advanced anti-missile architectures, a rapidly expanding fleet of F-35 fighters, world-class maritime patrol capabilities, and the ability to strike at long range in the coming years.
Beijing's psychological warfare
Adding on, Chong said Beijing understood its own vulnerabilities, and had hit hard early on the narrative - painting Japan as the "dangerous" one, the "provocative" one, and the "unpredictable" actor, a classic psychological warfare tactic.
The truth remains that if Taiwan falls, Japan's security architecture and deterrence go along the same line. The First Island Chain will break down, and Beijing will gain a new opening northward toward Okinawa and Kyushu.
He said Takaichi recognised this and voiced what regional strategists have long understood: that Japan has no choice but to act despite inviting Beijing's displeasures.
"By increasing hard power deterrence, the safe bets are always assured. By announcing plans to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles on Yonaguni Island, Tokyo can monitor airspace around the Taiwan Strait and create frontline deterrence on any hostile forces coming from the direction of Taiwan, forming the first line of defence," wrote Chong.
"The skies over Yonaguni will be the first to be penetrated by Chinese airpower and missiles in the first phase of a conflict, aimed at neutralising US bases in Okinawa. Placing Type-03 Chu-SAM and related monitoring systems there strengthens Japan's ability to intercept early attacks and deny China uncontested airspace in the opening moments of a crisis. This seals the gap where otherwise, Japan's entire south-western flank remains exposed.
"This deployment therefore remains a brilliant strategic move, in raising the cost of Chinese military adventurism, preserving Japan's territorial integrity, and sending a reassuring message to the region."
He added that without access to bases in Japan, US fighter aircraft's capacity is curtailed. In most simulated invasion scenarios, a US-Taiwan-Japan coalition prevailed against China, but Japan's involvement was the key difference between victory and defeat.
"Beijing is well aware of this, and this partly explains its kinetic and forceful responses to Takaichi's posture and statement," said Chong.
"Without Japan's airfields, the U.S.' ability to surge its fighter and attack jets will be hampered, allowing China's missile and airpower to target solely on Taiwan and US assets at sea.
"If Japan stays out, China stands a higher chance of eventually conquering Taiwan, even if Taiwan is resisting hard," he added.