As Donald Trump enters the lame duck phase of his presidency, Vice President JD Vance’s White House prospects in 2028 appear to be slipping after the collapse of the Republican coalition in disastrous midterm elections for the party.
Vance, widely considered the rightful heir to MAGA and GOP presidential frontrunner, now finds himself in a tough spot. The vice president issued a lengthy statement Wednesday morning in which he blamed Trump’s war in Iran for the Democratic blowout.
“The reason we lost is the war,” he said. “The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay.”
“But everyone knows why we lost,” Vance added. While the vice president has been skeptical of plunging the U.S. into the Middle East conflict, he toed the Trump administration’s line and publicly backed the war. In September, the vice president even refused to refer to it as a war.
That was a high price to pay.
Vance’s odds of succeeding Trump and winning the 2028 election plummeted from 20 percent on November 2 to 14 percent Wednesday morning on prediction market platform Kalshi. His odds of being named the GOP nominee fell from 35 percent Tuesday to 30 percent Wednesday, according to Kalshi.
In the vice president’s home state of Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown flipped Vance’s old Senate seat blue after defeating Republican incumbent Jon Husted. In the Ohio governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton beat Republican Vivek Ramaswamy after he ran an attack ad that featured her estranged mother, Donna Arthur, whose husband sexually abused Action when she was 12. Arthur stood by him and smeared Acton as a “liar” in the attack ad. Both Ramaswamy and Vance stood by the ad which drew intense bipartisan backlash.
Trump refused to pick between Vance and Rubio in July, referring to them as a "perfect ticket.” But now neither of their prospects look particularly hopeful, pundits said.
Still, Vance’s chances at securing the Republican nomination are more favorable than Rubio, whose odds are at 23 percent on Kalshi.
A former Trump official told CNN that Vance was “waving goodbye to 2028” as the source lamented the “breakup of the GOP as we currently know it.”
Others piled on with similar assessments of Vance’s predicament. “It can’t be Vance in 2028. I’m sorry, but it can’t. Not after tonight,” said Joey Mannarino of the conservative Overton Institute.
“Agreed,” replied South Carolina Representative Nancy Mace, whose term ends in January after an unsuccessful bid for governor. Mace said she thought it was also game over for the secretary of state. “Nor Rubio. That ship has sailed,” she added.
But Rubio’s fate has divided commentators. Former Republican Representative Trey Gowdy declared on Fox News: “There's one winner tonight on the Republican side, and that's Marco Rubio.”
Progressive commentator Keith Edwards said that neither MAGA figure stood a chance. “Marco Rubio and JD Vance are tied to the most unpopular Administration in over a generation,” he said. “They are never going to be president.”
While the future looks murky for Republicans, a potential 2028 candidate has emerged for Democrats. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has been hailed as the “next Barack Obama” after a hugely successful election night saw his odds of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee jump from 9 to 24 percent overnight.
The 39-year-old, the Senate’s youngest member who was elected in a 2021 election run-off, gave a rousing speech Tuesday night lashing out at “lame duck” Trump.
Vance, meanwhile, appears to be doing damage control.
“I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so,” he wrote in his 600-word statement. “Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.”
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