Nigel Farage’s decision to trigger a by-election in Clacton has descended into farce – and the fallout has sparked questions from Independent readers.
The Reform UK leader’s only declared opponent is Count Binface, a man in a bin costume, after other mainstream parties declined to stand – intensifying scrutiny of an undeclared £5m gift from British-Thai businessman Christopher Harborne and the support from convicted criminal George Cottrell that prompted the contest in the first place.
Farage has insisted the election is “real” and accused the main parties of “contempt for the electorate” for not contesting it, language that has only fuelled speculation about his real motives for calling the election.
Ministers, meanwhile, have suggested he is simply “trying to pretend he's Donald Trump”.
Across a recent Ask Me Anything session, readers pressed me on everything from whether this tactic has already backfired, to how seriously the standards committee investigation could threaten him, and what his by-election gambit means for the rest of Reform’s campaign.
Much of the discussion centred on a simple but unresolved question – whether this by-election is a shrewd pre-emptive strike or a serious miscalculation. I have argued that while the tactic may be Farage’s least bad option, it is likely to delay rather than defuse the reckoning over his finances.
Here are some of your questions from the Q&A – and my answers:
Q: Can Farage survive losing that many votes to a novelty candidate?
anonymous
A: I may be wrong, but I think that is extremely unlikely. I assume that Farage will win by an overwhelming margin on a low turnout. If Binface gets 45 per cent that would be embarrassing for Farage, but as long as he wins, his core supporters will stand by him.
Q: Has this tactic backfired, or can Farage regain control of the narrative?
YetAnotherName
A: I think the by-election tactic was the least bad option for him. What he should have done, of course, is say: I made a mistake – I should have declared the £5m gift from Christopher Harborne and the donations in kind from George Cottrell, I apologise, now let us move on.
But he is too prickly and proud, and thinks journalists doing their job, asking legitimate questions about his finances, are part of the “establishment” that is out to get him.
So he is following the Trump model of never admitting a mistake, and launching a full-bore attack on anyone who dares disturb his self-image as a martyr to his cause.
He will win the by-election, and can taunt the main parties for being too cowardly to stand against him. They will bore on about a man with a bin on his head. But later, if the standards committee finds against him, as seems likely, and triggers a recall petition and another by-election, he will hold the initiative and can say to the voters of Clacton: tell them yet again.
Q: Has Farage miscalculated with this by-election?
PinkoRadical
A: He had no good options and chose the one that allows him to take the initiative and reinforce support with his base. I think the main parties miscalculated – if they think Farage is such a charlatan, they should put their case to the voters of Clacton and seek to persuade them. This applies especially to Kemi Badenoch: Clacton used to be a Conservative seat, and Reform is seeking to replace the Tory party. As it is, it looks as if the main parties know they cannot beat Farage, so they are not going to try.
Still, at least they didn’t make the mistake of uniting behind an anti-Reform or anti-“sleaze” candidate, in the style of Martin Bell in Tatton in 1997. That would have played into Farage’s hands, allowing him to portray himself as a plucky outsider fighting the establishment “uniparty”.
Q: Should the other parties have backed a unity candidate?
SRogers
A: An anti-Reform unity candidate would have played into Farage’s hands. He could have said that all the “establishment” parties had united against him.
Q: Does this by-election get ahead of the Standards Committee probe?
Anonymous
A: I am not sure the standards committee would impose an insignificant punishment on Farage if he were found to have failed to disclose registrable donations. The £5m is such a large sum that trying to keep it secret would be quite a serious breach of the rules, if it is a breach. If he were suspended from the Commons for more than 10 sitting days, that could trigger a recall petition, and if that attracts support from 10 per cent of his constituents, that would mean another by-election. But by fighting a by-election now, Farage will have drawn some of the sting from that, and could turn it to his advantage as evidence that the “establishment” is continuing to persecute him.
Q: Should Farage have to fund this by-election himself?
Realist2
A: I think the by-election is a waste of public money, just as I thought David Davis’s by-election in 2008, in protest at New Labour’s “authoritarianism”, was a silly stunt. But I’d be reluctant to try to devise a law to ban it – especially as, in similar circumstances, all right-thinking people think MPs who change party should resign and fight by-elections under their new colours.
Q: Was Farage advised to fight this by-election himself, and is any of it being funded by his US Republican backers?
Laertes
A: As I understand it, Farage decided to fight the by-election himself. Those around him were doubtful about it, but he felt so persecuted that he thought it was the only way to deal with questions about his finances on his own terms.
No, I don’t think Farage is funded by Americans. Donations to Reform and to Farage personally from Christopher Harborne, a Thailand-based dual British-Thai national, are controversial enough. I doubt Farage could hide illegal foreign funding – after all, the £5m personal gift from Harborne was known by very few people, and yet journalists still found out about it.
Q: Will broadcasters have to cover all the candidates equally?
AlrightSausage
A: I doubt there will be much coverage of the by-election campaign itself, but the broadcasting rules will complicate any reporting of what Farage says about national politics or his finances. Every reference to him will require publication of the list of all the candidates.
Q: Can Reform still fight a campaign in Greater Manchester while this by-election is going on?
avidmidlandsreader
A: It has been reported that Reform is asking activists to join the campaign in Clacton rather than in Greater Manchester, which seems rational to me. I don’t think they can win the mayoral by-election now that the government has reverted to the supplementary vote system, allowing people to record a second-preference vote. It is quite wrong that Labour should change the voting system in a way that favours them, but the supplementary vote is a better system than first past the post.
Q: Can Andy Burnham’s devolution plan solve the problem of places like Clacton?
A: I think Andy Burnham understands that many voters in places such as Clacton – and Makerfield – feel that Westminster has failed them, but I am not sure he has the answers. Nor has Farage, of course.
These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by John Rentoul, chief political commentator at The Independent.
Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article.
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