KUALA LUMPUR: The upcoming Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections are shaping up to be more than contests between the Unity Government and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Instead, political analysts believe the twin polls may offer the clearest indication yet of whether Malaysia’s political alignments – forged in the aftermath of the 2022 General Election (GE15) – are beginning to fracture and give way to a new configuration ahead of GE16.
The dissolution of both state assemblies within days of each other comes at a time when every major political bloc appears to be facing internal pressures.
Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) remain partners at the federal level but continue to grapple with lingering distrust among grassroots supporters. PN, meanwhile, is facing increasingly visible tensions between Pas and Bersatu. Adding another layer of uncertainty is the expected electoral debut of Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama.
For political observers, the significance of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls lies not merely in who wins the most seats, but in what the results reveal about the future direction of Malaysian politics.
More than a referendum on the Unity Government
The elections are already being viewed by many as an early referendum on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Unity Government.
However, Professor James Chin of Monash University Malaysia cautioned that the circumstances in Johor and Negeri Sembilan are fundamentally different.
“Yes, people will use the state elections as a referendum on the unity government. But people don’t realise that the conditions are very, very different,” he said.
Chin pointed out that PH is the opposition in Johor but leads the state government in Negeri Sembilan, where the election was triggered amid a wider constitutional and royal dispute.
“As you know, Umno is hell-bent on getting rid of the current ruler of Negeri Sembilan and the current Menteri Besar while Pakatan Harapan wants to keep the current ruler and the Menteri Besar,” he said.
“The big difference with Johor is that Pakatan Harapan is the opposition there. So, it can be viewed indirectly but not as a direct referendum.”
Pacific Research Centre principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun nevertheless believes the elections could foreshadow a larger political shift.
“At the very least, it presages the breakup of the unity government as PH and BN go head-to-head in these state polls and likely the imminent national polls as well,” he said.
Oh added that while state issues would likely dominate the campaigns, broader concerns such as economic pressures and rising living costs would inevitably influence voter sentiment.
For Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Professor Dr Azmi Hassan, the elections may ultimately become a referendum on the viability of PH-BN cooperation itself.
“I view the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections as a referendum on whether it is better for them to cooperate or remain separate,” he said.
Associate Professor Dr Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk, director of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Centre for Policy Research, offered a similar assessment but argued that the focus differs between the two states.
“The Johor state election is more likely a referendum on Umno rather than the unity government, whereas the Negeri Sembilan state election is a test case for PH,” he said.
Rafizi’s Parti Bersama enters the fray
One of the most closely watched developments is the expected electoral debut of Parti Bersama Malaysia. Most analysts agree the new party is likely to draw support primarily from PH’s traditional voter base rather than PN.
“It is obvious that Bersama is going after Pakatan Harapan supporters, especially Chinese supporters who are very disappointed with Anwar’s lack of reforms, as well as some Umno supporters,” Chin said.
“But the chances of Bersama getting Perikatan Nasional supporters, especially Pas supporters, are slim because ideologically they are too far apart.”
Oh described Bersama as “essentially a PKR splinter” and said it would likely attract support from PH voters, fence-sitters and segments of BN’s urban middle-class supporters.
Azmi also believes Bersama’s greatest strength lies in its ability to attract support from voters previously aligned with PKR.
“Looking at the composition of its membership, there is a strong possibility that Parti Bersama will attract support from Pakatan Harapan or, more specifically, PKR.
“That is the purpose of Bersama and that is its strength.”
However, Azeem cautioned against assuming immediate electoral success.
“Bersama is a fairly new party or, for lack of a better word, a splinter party of PKR,” he said.
“Based on PKR’s past performance, Johor is not its stronghold. It follows that Bersama might face an uphill battle there.”
Fragmentation becoming the new normal?
Beyond the immediate contests, analysts believe the elections may reveal whether Malaysia is moving towards an even more fragmented political landscape.
For Chin, fragmentation is not a future possibility but an existing reality.
“Malaysia has been a fragmented political landscape since 2018. It has not gone back to a stable landscape where there’s a dominant player.”
Chin described Malaysia as a “transition political system”, arguing that the country is still searching for a new equilibrium following the collapse of Barisan Nasional’s decades-long dominance.
“We are transitioning to something new. What that is, we’re not sure,” he said.
“I have argued that political Islam is rising. So, we are moving into a system where political Islam will play a more prominent role.”
Oh believes the current trajectory may continue to favour PN.
“Sure, Malaysia could become more fragmented, but I think PN will improve while PH will decline,” he said.
Azmi, meanwhile, argued that ideological overlap between multiple parties is contributing to the fragmentation.
“There are simply too many parties championing broadly similar issues,” he said.
As a result, he believes coalition-building will become increasingly necessary.
“I see this as pointing towards a political landscape where parties will need to cooperate to form governments, even though they compete against one another during elections.”
Azeem suggested even larger changes may be on the horizon.
“I feel that there is something else cooking politically. It’s no longer about PN versus the Unity Government. The Unity Government is bursting at the seams. A new political configuration might be in the pipeline.”
Melaka polls next?
The twin elections have also fuelled speculation that Melaka could soon follow suit. On Saturday, Melaka Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh hinted that the state election would be held after the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls.
Several analysts believe Umno’s decision to trigger an early election in Johor is part of a broader strategy to test and rebuild support ahead of GE16.
“There are a lot of talks inside Umno that Melaka is also a good place to hold the next state election,” Chin said.
“Basically, Umno wants to win big in Melaka and Johor and then cut into Negeri Sembilan or reduce the majority even if it loses, to show that Umno is back as the preferred choice of Malay-Muslim voters.”
Azmi shares a similar view.
“Yes, that is indeed Umno’s strategy,” he said.
“It dissolved the Johor State Legislative Assembly first because Johor is one of its strongholds, hoping a favourable result there will generate momentum for Umno elsewhere, particularly in Melaka.”
Oh believes Melaka is likely to follow suit.
“Melaka is likely to follow as well, as it is not as if the current state government will fare any better going forward,” he said.
Azeem went further, suggesting the elections may signal a broader strategic shift by Umno.
“Umno is abandoning the Unity Government and might be going back to its roots.
“It is highly unlikely that they will join forces with DAP and PKR in states where they are able to win on their own.”
A glimpse of GE16 – or something beyond it?
Historically, state elections have not always been reliable predictors of federal election outcomes. Yet the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls carry significance beyond the number of seats won or lost.
They will test whether PH and BN can sustain their uneasy partnership, whether PN can maintain cohesion amid internal strains, and whether new political players such as Parti Bersama can gain meaningful traction.
More importantly, they may provide the first indication that Malaysia’s post-2022 political order is beginning to unravel.
For now, the twin elections are unlikely to answer every question about GE16.
But they could reveal something equally important – whether the alliances that have shaped Malaysian politics over the past four years are reaching their limits, and what might emerge in their place.
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