Everybody is making it sound as if the Himpunan Turun Anwar rally on 26 July is a litmus test for Anwar — and they’re right. It is.
Successful rallies are known to bring down governments, not just in Malaysia, but also in countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The Hindraf rally cost Pak Lah his job. The Bersih rallies might have delivered Najib's administration a mortal blow. The Rajapaksa reign in Sri Lanka and Sheikh Hasina’s long rule in Bangladesh also ended because of street protests.
Sheikh Hasina’s fate is particularly worth noting for Anwar. Unlike the Rajapaksa regime, which was already a failure when it was overthrown, Sheikh Hasina’s government was still considered relatively successful. Bangladesh was recording one of the highest economic growth rates in the world when, in July 2024, university students began protesting over job quotas — a relatively minor issue. But Hasina’s government overreacted, and by August — within a month — a popular uprising brought her 15-year rule to an end. She had to flee the country.
Some say 500,000 people will take to the streets this Saturday, while police expect only around 15,000. But I think if the rally manages to attract 50,000 people, and they show a modest level of energy and spirit, the rally can already be called a success.
What do I mean by success?
I mean that if a semi-vigorous 50,000-strong crowd shows up, the rally will be the start of something, rather than the end of something. If that happens, we’re likely to see more rallies in the months to come, and their size may keep growing — eventually becoming a force strong enough to cost Anwar the next election, or even bring him down before his term ends.
However, if the rally only attracts 15,000 or fewer people, and the atmosphere is lethargic, then instead of being a danger to Anwar, it could actually spell trouble for Hadi and Muhyiddin.
Hadi, who is not in the best of health, recently declared that he wants to remain PAS president until he dies — even as talk grows of a potential challenge at the upcoming PAS elections.
Muhyiddin, meanwhile, has faced repeated calls to step down due to what many see as his lethargic leadership. Just recently, a Bersatu division came out openly in support of the party’s number two, Hamzah Zainuddin, taking over as the Bersatu — and possibly PN — leader.
So in truth, this rally on July 26 is not just a test for Anwar. It’s also a test for Muhyiddin and Hadi.
If they can’t rally their supporters in full force, it may be taken as a signal that even within their own parties, their members have become weary of their leadership and want them to move on.
Rather than being the event that brings Anwar down, this Saturday’s rally may actually be the last hurrah for the two main leaders of Perikatan Nasional.
After GE15, Muhyiddin was neck-and-neck with Anwar. Today, he is so far behind that no one — except himself — sees him as a potential PM anymore.
And if under Hadi’s leadership, all PAS can muster is a weak crowd this Saturday, he may be forced to admit that his members want him to step down and focus on his health.
In conclusion:
If the crowd is bigger than 50,000 and shows spirit and energy — Anwar is in danger.
If it’s smaller than 15,000 and the crowd is lethargic — it’s Hadi and Muhyiddin who should be worried.
Considering what is as stake, other than Anwar, Hadi and Muhyiddin too will likely be having a sleepless night and a restless day on July 26.
TheRealNehruism (nehru.sathiamoorthy@gmail.com) is a content creator under the Newswav Creator programme, where you get to express yourself, be a citizen journalist, and at the same time monetize your content & reach millions of users on Newswav. Log in to creator.newswav.com and become a Newswav Creator now!
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