A surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party threatens to overshadow Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s conference tax-cutting closing speech on Wednesday.
The leader of the opposition will say a “battle for the soul of the nation” as she is widely expected to announce a proposed cut to the 40 per cent rate of inheritance tax, which applies to an estate’s value worth more than £325,000.
Pledges announced in previous days have included halving employer national insurance for workers aged between 21 and 24, and scrapping the so-called “mansion tax” on properties in England with a value higher than £2 million.
Ms Badenoch will warn “something is going to break” without better growth under the Tories as she accuses Andy Burnham’s Labour of presiding over a “tax doom loop that is making us all poorer”.
Ms Badenoch will hope the speech revives the electoral hopes of her party, which trails both Labour and Reform UK in opinion polls.
She said on Tuesday if there were a hung parliament at the next election, she would rather fight two general elections in quick succession than form a coalition with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Read MoreBadenoch draws battle lines to take on Labour for ‘soul of the nation’
All parties are ducking the challenge of defence spending
Key Points
- Poll shows surge in support for Nigel Farage's Reform
- Tax cuts top of the agenda at party conference
- Tories rule out pact with Reform UK
- Fight is coming in British politics, Kemi Badenoch to warn
- What will Kemi Badenoch say in today's speech?
Surge in support for Reform overshadows Kemi Badenoch’s big speech
10:28 , David MaddoxAfter a lacklustre conference for the Tories in Birmingham a new poll seems to suggest that the public remain unimpressed with what the party has to offer.
As Kemi Badenoch prepares to give her big speech, a survey by More in Common has shown that her party’s support has dropped one point this week to 21 per cent while Nigel Farage’s Reform is up three to 24 per cent.
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham’s Labour continues to top the poll, up two to 29 per cent with a five-point lead over Reform UK.
In our latest voting intention, Labour hit 29% their highest since 2024, Reform move to 2nd & Greens fall to lowest since August 2025
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) October 7, 2026
🌹 LAB 29% (+2)
⏩ REF 24% (+3)
🌳 CON 21% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-1)
🟢 GREEN 7% (-2)
⚫ RES: 4% (-2)
N 2,088 | Dates 3-5/10 | Change w 29/09 pic.twitter.com/t6otdl9scX
The findings come in a week where the Tories this week promised an iron shield to protect the UK, to slash regulation and focus tax and welfare support on the better off.
But More in Common pointed out that most of the fieldwork was done before the conference, so Ms Badenoch will be hoping for a bounce next week from her conference.
More in Common director Luke Tryl said: “Labour has hit their highest since Burnham became PM, and are now more than ten points higher than their trough under Keir Starmer. Burnham is squeezing the left, as the Liberal Democrats also fall to their joint lowest this parliament.”
Kevin Hollinrake's dog gets a standing ovation
10:22 , Millie CookeKevin Hollinrake brought his black Labrador – which has become infamous in Tory marketing – out onto the stage as he delivered his main stage speech at Tory conference.
As the dog arrived on the Symphony Hall main stage, Mr Hollinrake sipped a pint as the crowd gave the pair of them a standing ovation.
Blair says Labour should not go into coalition with Greens
10:28 , Sian ElvinTony Blair has warned Andy Burnham not to do any kind of coalition deal with the Greens after the party was widely condemned for voting to adopt a policy defining Zionism as racism.
The former Labour prime minister hit out at Zack Polanski’s party, saying they had “crossed a line. A dangerous line”.
The move effectively “branded the majority of the (UK’s) Jews racists” at the same time as “they harm the Palestinian cause—the very cause they say they support”, he said.
Blair warns Burnham: Don’t do coalition with the Greens
Watch: Kemi Badenoch to consider cutting inheritance tax
10:10 , Sian ElvinMargaret Thatcher comparison to be made
09:48 , Sian ElvinWith senior Tories comparing the moment to 50 years ago when Margaret Thatcher took power during a failing Labour government, Kemi Badenoch will use her speech to hark back to the reforms of the 1980s, comparing them to those of Andy Burnham, who she says plans to take Britain back to the 1970s.
She will say: “On one side we have a government that wants to wind back the clock to failed ideas of the past. They believe economic growth is created by politicians. They think government knows best.
“They think that your income, your pension and your savings are theirs to take and then hand out as they see fit. They claim that what they are doing is compassionate but we know that these ideas will make every single person in this country poorer.”
She warned: “Your taxes will be higher. Your bills will go up. You will find it harder and harder to make ends meet.”
And mocking the prime minister’s campaigning style of social media videos, she will add: “Just because these ideas are delivered on TikTok doesn’t make them any less dangerous than they have always been.”
Kemi Badenoch issues warning to Tory MPs
09:29 , Sian ElvinKemi Badenoch issued a warning to wavering Tory MPs, insisting that anyone who defects to Reform UK will not be allowed back into her party.
While the Tory leader said she wants “Reform voters to come back to us”, she said the MPs “who left our party… are people who just cause problems”.
Speaking to GB News, Ms Badenoch said: "I want Reform voters to come back to us. The people in Reform as politicians, the MPs, especially the ones who left our party, they are people who just cause problems.
“Their conference… it was overshadowed by an exposé and scandals. You know, they deny it, but they keep having these problems.
"Their leader in Wales had to step down after being arrested. The one before him is in prison for taking bribes from Russia. I don't want to do a deal with those types of people. I want Reform voters to come back to us, back to the Conservative Party.”
How Reform will attempt to oust the Tory leader
09:13 , Sian ElvinReform UK will try to oust Kemi Badenoch by using a US-style primary to find its candidate to fight her Essex seat at the next general election.
Every resident of North West Essex constituency will have the chance to choose who stands for Nigel Farage’s party, even if they are not a member.
In what is already expected to be a hotly contested constituency, Reform hopes the move – which emerged on the eve of Ms Badenoch’s speech to her party conference in Birmingham – will help them build support for their pick.
The final choice will be made through a vote at a public event hosted by Mr Farage.
Open primaries are held in a number of US states and allow voters to take part in the selection of Democrat and Republican candidates even if they are not party members.
Schedule for the final day of the conference
08:59 , Sian ElvinWednesday is the final day of the Conservative Party conference. Here’s who is speaking today:
- Party chair Kevin Hollinrake
- Shadow home secretary Chris Philp
- Shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy
- Leader Kemi Badenoch will deliver the closing speech at 12pm
John Healey to ‘cut energy bills for most poor’ in Budget
08:45 , Sian ElvinThe chancellor is said to be considering a move that would cut soaring energy bills for the poorest people in his first Budget.
The government has so far kept all discussions regarding the Budget under wraps, but according to The Guardian, reform to help people with high energy bills is on the table.
The paper reported John Healey is considering increasing the warm homes discount to help the poorest households heat their homes.
He is reportedly considering an increase of £100 to the £150 discount to energy bills, funded by taxpayers rather than bill-payers.
It comes as the chancellor is having to find vast sums of money in his first Budget to fund Andy Burnham’s prime ministerial pledges, as well as fund a £4.7bn black hole in defence spending.
What will Kemi Badenoch say in today's speech?
08:26 , Sian ElvinKemi Badenoch is expected to tell the audience of Tory politicians and campaigners: “Conference, there is a fight coming in British politics.
“A fight that we have not seen in this country for more than half a century.
“It will be a battle for the soul of this nation. A battle of ideas. A battle that goes to the very core of who we are and what kind of country we want to be.”
Ms Badenoch will pitch the Tories, who are behind Labour and narrowly trailing Reform UK in opinion polls, as the party “fighting again for the belief that what people earn belongs to them, not government”.
Echoing former Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher, she will say the Tories offer “the right way” and argue “no one else is going to deliver a stronger economy and a stronger country”.
“We are running out of money and running out of time to put it right,” she will say.
“Conference, we have a fight on our hands and we need to be ready. Unless we start creating more value, unless we start growing our economy, something is going to break.”
Tories rule out pact with Reform UK
08:11 , Sian ElvinThe deputy leader of the Conservative Party has ruled out a pact with Reform UK, citing Nigel Farage’s “dubious” financial affairs.
Alex Burghart said the Tory party will “not ever” make a deal with their right-wing rivals, despite other figures in the party calling for a pact.
Asked about comments made by former Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who said Conservatives should at least consider striking a deal, Mr Burghart said: "I'm very fond of Jacob, but we're not doing a deal with Reform.
“Reform have said that they are out to destroy us. Reform have taken money from very dubious sources in very dubious ways.
“Nigel Farage has not accounted for £5 million that went into his private bank account. I am very suspicious of large sums of money given from cryptocurrency, which is a system deliberately set up to hide its origins.
“You can buy a lot of things with money, but you can't buy integrity.”
Kemi Badenoch does want to 'get rid' of inheritance tax
07:58 , Athena StavrouAhead of Kemi Badenoch’s speech later, deputy Tory leader Alex Burghart said Ms Badenoch does want to “get rid” of inheritance tax.
She wants to get rid of inheritance tax, but she's only going to do it if we can afford it,” he told Sky News.
“That's why she's asked Andrew Griffith, shadow chancellor, and the economic team to see what the options are. But we're not going to commit to anything unless we can afford it.”
Tax cuts top of the agenda at party conference
07:40 , Sian ElvinKemi Badenoch is expected to unveil cuts to inheritance tax in her major speech at the Conservative Party conference later on Wednesday.
The announcement would come a year after her 2025 conference promise to abolish stamp duty for buying homes.
After suggesting over the weekend reducing inheritance tax would be "morally right", she is set to place tax cuts at the heart of her address. The so-called “mansion tax” on properties in England with a value higher than £2 million would also be ditched.
She is further expected to cut employers’ national insurance for workers aged 21 to 24 to 7.5 per cent, in an effort to tackle the youth unemployment crisis.
It is thought welfare cuts of £30bn will pay for the policies.
Something will break without better growth, Badenoch to predict
07:15 , Sian ElvinOpposition leader Kemi Badenoch is set to warn in her conference speech that “something is going to break” without better growth as she accuses Andy Burnham’s Labour of wanting to “wind back the clock to failed ideas of the past”.
The Tories have put the economy top of their agenda at their party conference in Birmingham, focusing less on the so-called “culture wars” that dominated previous years.
Mrs Badenoch will accuse Labour of believing “growth is created by politicians” and presiding over a “tax doom loop that is making us all poorer”.
Fight is coming in British politics, Badenoch to warn
07:00 , Sian ElvinA fight is coming in British politics, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is set to warn, in her leader’s speech at the end of the party conference.
She is set to say it will be “a fight that we have not seen in this country for more than half a century”.
“It will be a battle for the soul of this nation. A battle of ideas.
“A battle that goes to the very core of who we are and what kind of country we want to be.”
She will pitch the Tories, who are behind Labour and narrowly trailing Reform UK in opinion polls, as the party “fighting again for the belief that what people earn belongs to them, not government.”
