SEOUL: South Korea’s intelligence agency says North Korea could carry out its seventh nuclear test before the US midterm elections on Nov 8, begging the question on how Kim Jong-un intends to play his nuclear trump card to prolong his dictatorship.
US and South Korean authorities concluded this spring that the North had finished the restoration of Tunnel 3 at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, and the South’s National Intelligence Service told parliament in May that Pyongyang had completed preparations.
The Punggye-ri site has four tunnels. Tunnel 1 was used for the first test in 2006, while the other five tests were conducted in Tunnel 2. North Korea claimed in 2018 that it had demolished the site in front of international television crews, but many experts say it blew up only the entrance.
South Korea has cited a few possible reasons why the North has held off from the seventh test.
First, Pyongyang has been less than enthusiastic about making waves before the ongoing Chinese Communist Party’s national congress, where Xi Jinping is expected to win a third term as president. A surge in Covid infections since April and possible damage to the tunnels caused by heavy rains may be other reasons. Humidity during the rainy season could also make it difficult to collect accurate test data.
However, Kim said in August that the number of Covid infections had dropped to zero and weather conditions had improved. The weeklong congress in China will close on Saturday, with all key members of the leadership to be known by the following day.
South Korea’s NIS said North Korea may conduct a nuclear test between the end of the Chinese congress and the US midterm elections. It sees a test as part of Pyongyang’s brinkmanship to draw the attention of US president Joe Biden, who has shown little interest in North Korean affairs, by staging a security crisis before the midterm vote.
The seventh nuclear test is seen as part of Pyongyang’s efforts to miniaturise warheads. The North said its recent firing of missiles was part of training for its tactical nuclear warfare unit. According to experts and officials following the North’s development, the country intends to deploy missiles capable of surprise attacks on US military bases in Japan and South Korea, posing a serious challenge to missile defence systems.
Some North Korea watchers say Pyongyang may not rush its nuclear tests, given Kim’s medium- and long-term strategy.
“Kim must be keeping a close watch on the US midterm elections, as he expects little from Biden and pins his hopes on Donald Trump’s comeback as US president,” said a senior South Korean official who had been involved in negotiations between the two Koreas.
Actually, Biden has little room to change course regarding North Korea as he is busy dealing with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the threat of China. Trump’s prospects of winning the 2024 Republican nomination for president may be boosted if his favoured candidates do well in the midterms.
“North Korea may focus on bolstering its nuclear capability by 2023 in the hopes of striking a big deal with Trump if he wins the 2024 presidential election,” said Kwak Gil-sup, professor at Kookmin University in Seoul and former analyst at the NIS.
Kim appears to hold Trump in high regard, as seen in the 27 personal letters – recently released by a South Korean foreign affairs magazine – he exchanged with the former US president. The letters show that Kim urged Trump to change Washington’s hostile policy toward North Korea, indicating his penchant for leadership talks while avoiding working-level negotiations among senior officials.
“Kim thinks that Trump can pull US troops out of South Korea,” said the former South Korean negotiator. While in office, Trump cancelled joint US-South Korea military drills aimed at Kim’s regime and suggested scaling down US forces in South Korea.
The dream of Kim’s late grandfather, Kim Il-sung, was to remove US forces from South Korea and unify the Korean Peninsula under Pyongyang’s rule. Prior to Trump, Jimmy Carter was the only American president who officially advocated the withdrawal of US forces from South Korea. Kim thinks it would be worth betting on Trump’s return as US president, the South Korean official said.
Four and a half years ago, Kim succeeded in arranging a summit with Trump by hinting at denuclearisation on the peninsula during talks with then-South Korean president Moon Jae-in.
At the Supreme People’s Assembly in September, however, Kim stressed that before North Korea shifts its nuclear policy, the political and military situation on the peninsula must change. “We will never renounce nuclear weapons nor promote denuclearisation first,” Kim said.
As long as North Korea refuses dialogue and proceeds with its nuclear projects, the US, Japan and South Korea will have little choice but to strengthen economic sanctions and military pressure against the country while steeling themselves for a long, drawn-out battle.
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