Impatient Labour MPs have urged Andy Burnham to launch a leadership bid as soon as possible if, as expected, he wins the crucial Makerfield by-election and secures his return to Westminster.
The most important by-election in decades could be the first in history to decide who is prime minister, with the fate of the government in the hands of the 76,641-strong electorate in the former coal mining town near Wigan when they head to the polls on Thursday.
There has been speculation that Mr Burnham may wait for a replacement as Greater Manchester mayor to be elected before making a move, but one Labour MP said: “We can’t mess around and delay further.”
Labour Riverside MP Kim Johnson told The Independent that her colleagues want the contest to start “hopefully as soon as possible”, while another suggested it will be “Monday at the latest” before a formal challenge is made.
The clamour to end the uncertainty over Sir Keir Starmer’s government came as Mr Burnham held an eve-of-poll rally, promising “change is coming” to British politics.
He told voters: “A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics that didn’t trickle down much at all to people here.
“It is a vote to bring down water bills, energy bills, to make life more affordable to people again, to give the British people a bit more money in their pockets, to give people a bit more breathing space in their daily lives. That is what a vote for me is all about. It’s a vote to power up the North of England.”
Former health secretary Wes Streeting has already warned he could pull the trigger on a leadership challenge as early as next week in a bid to end the “paralysis” within Labour if Sir Keir fails to “depart on his own terms” should Mr Burnham win the by-election.
The Independent understands the recently resigned former armed forces minister Al Carns is looking to stand, but another potential contender, Angela Rayner, looks set to back Mr Burnham instead.
A veteran MP noted: “I think patience has run it out. A contest could take months, and we have to get this done.”
Another added: “It is over for Starmer. Hopefully, he realises it and we can get on with making Andy leader.”
In a last-ditch effort to save his government, Sir Keir made a final offer to give Mr Burnham a government job if he is elected in the early hours of Friday morning.
Sir Keir told journalists at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France: “What I will say about Andy is he is a huge asset to our party and our movement.
“I hope he wins the by-election and he plays a big part in the Labour government. He’s been a very successful mayor. When I came into politics, his was the team that I joined, and we work very closely together.”
But sources close to the Greater Manchester mayor have already made it clear he will not accept a job from the prime minister, in a sign that he is ready to move against Sir Keir for the top job.
The pressure by MPs to get on with replacing Sir Keir comes as data collected by Reform candidates shows Mr Burnham is expected to win by around 5 per cent, while private polling for Labour suggests it could be an even more comfortable margin.
Labour’s canvassing has shown that Mr Burnham’s biggest appeal in Makerfield is that his election would see the removal of Sir Keir as PM.
A survey of 774 leading businesspeople from across the UK reveals the Greater Manchester mayor is their preferred choice as PM, with a net +16 per cent rating on improving the business environment. Kemi Badenoch followed on +12 per cent, while Sir Keir was slightly negative on -1 per cent, and Nigel Farage scored -3 per cent.
Pollsters Survation believe that Mr Burnham’s vote may be bigger than polls suggest, and they have predicted he will win by 10 points.
A Politics UK poll of polls suggests that Mr Burnham will get 46 per cent, Reform 39 per cent and Rupert Lowe’s right-wing Restore Britain party 7 per cent.
Meanwhile, leading polling analysts have warned that a defeat to Reform in Makerfield would be catastrophic for Labour.
Professor Sir John Curtice said defeat could leave Labour in a prolonged leadership contest if Sir Keir insists he is going to stay.
He said: “The question is, where do they go in the wake of a Burnham defeat because is there then someone who is a) capable of beating Starmer in a contest, and b) can do a better job?”
He added: “The problem that everyone’s got is there are 100 Labour MPs who say this man isn’t up to the job. You can’t run against that backdrop at a general election.”
Lord Robert Hayward, a Tory peer, said that if Labour lost, it would be a blow to the party “because of the positive impact it would have for Reform”.
“Andy Burnham is the ideal candidate for that constituency and therefore if he can’t swing the voters then it says to a much wider audience of the Labour Party that they are in serious problems in their heartlands,” he said.
“If he wins, it would be an enormous achievement to himself and kudos for him personally. If Labour loses, the blow it will have on the party at large is substantial, and then of course the impact will be on internal machinations.”
He added that if Reform lose, they will have a “justification for losing”, which will either be the recent surge in support for Restore Britain in the electorate or defeat by local icon Andy Burnham.
“It will still be damaging to the party’s psychology,” he added.
If they win, he said it could “boost Reform quite markedly” and help them send a message that “they are the next party for government”.
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