Labour welfare bill latest: Starmer’s benefits policy ‘disintengrated before our eyes’, claims rebel MP

Politics
2 Jul 2025 • 2:54 PM MYT
The Independent
The Independent

The world’s most free-thinking newspaper

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Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare bill was seen “disintegrating before our eyes” when it scraped through its second reading, one of the leading backbench rebels has claimed.

Ministers’ concessions on the benefits policy on Tuesday signalled a “change in power between the prime minister” and disabled people, Rachael Maskell also told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday.

A key reform was dropped in a last-minute concession to MPs to head off a growing rebellion in a move that will cause a headache for Rachel Reeves. The chancellor has seen a forecast £4.8 billion saving from the welfare budget whittled away through a series of concessions, leaving her to seek extra money through spending cuts, tax hikes or borrowing to balance the books.

Helen Miller, deputy director of IFS, said:“Without reform to Personal Independence Payment, the watered down bill is not expected to deliver any savings over the next four years.”

The watering down of the legislation represents the most significant knock to the prime minister’s leadership since coming into power a year ago.

And despite the concessions, Sir Keir still suffered the biggest rebellion of his premiership so far, with 49 Labour MPs voting against the government’s bill.

While the bill passed its second reading by 335 votes to 260, a majority of 75, the government was forced to abandon key aspects of its plans in order to quash Labour dissent.

Speaking in the Commons ahead of the vote, disability minister Sir Stephen Timms announced that changes to the personal independence payment – which had been the central pillar of the government's reforms – will not take place until after a review of the benefit has concluded.

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Key Points

  • Government 'returning to the drawing board' for savings, says IFS
  • Starmer's welfare Bill passes second reading
  • Rebel amendment defeated in Commons
  • Liz Kendall insists Labour is 100 per cent behind Starmer
  • Dramatic late concession to quell rebellion
  • Welfare plans branded 'Dickensian' by Labour MPs

Rachel Reeves will keep her job, McFadden insists

07:48

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Tara Cobham

The Independent’s political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:

Pat McFadden has insisted the chancellor will keep her job despite the chaos around Labour’s welfare reforms.

The chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster defended Rachel Reeves, insisting she is doing an “excellent job”.

One of the key issues with Labour’s benefit cuts was that MPs and campaigners believed they were reverse-engineered to meet a savings target demanded by the chancellor.

Having scrapped almost the entire plan, the government has now been left with a £5bn hole in its spending plans.

But, asked by Sky News whether she would keep her job, Mr McFadden said: “Of course she will, she is doing an excellent job, we take those decisions as a team, we stand as a team and go forward as a team.”

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ANALYSIS: Winning welfare vote was supposed to allow Starmer to move on – but it’s only created more problems

07:30

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Tara Cobham

The Independent’s Whitehall Editor Kate Devlin reports:

The government may have won the welfare vote, but it does not seem like a victory this morning.

In fact, the vote may have created more problems than it solved.

A last-minute U-turn has left Rachel Reeves with a multi-billion pound hole in her sums.

Ministers are facing growing calls to pull the welfare bill entirely.

And furious Labour backbenchers are now demanding a government “reset”.

This vote now appears to be one of the most consequential of Labour’s first year in power – and not in the way Keir Starmer would have wanted.

Wrangling with backbench MPs over welfare reforms 'difficult', Cabinet minister says

07:24

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Tara Cobham

Wrangling with backbench MPs over welfare reforms has been a “difficult process”, a Cabinet minister has said.

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden told Times Radio: “It’s been a difficult process there’s no doubt about that, over the last couple of weeks on this.

“But we got to a position where the second reading of the bill was passed, and where in regard to the most contentious issue of reforms to the Pip regime that will now be taken forward in slower time, with my colleague, Stephen Timms, the minister in charge heading up a review of that.”

Watch: Disabled Labour MP breaks down in tears over party’s welfare cuts

07:00

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Holly Evans

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Starmer scrapes through on welfare reform after last-minute concession to rebel MPs

06:00

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Holly Evans

Sir Keir Starmer has suffered the biggest blow to his leadership since coming into power a year ago after he was forced to abandon a key plank of his controversial benefit cuts in order to get them through parliament.

While his welfare reform bill passed its second reading by 335 votes to 260 – a majority of 75 – the prime minister still suffered the largest rebellion of his premiership so far, with 49 Labour MPs voting to reject the legislation.

It came after a last-ditch announcement that plans to restrict eligibility for personal independence payments (PIP) – which had been the central pillar of the government’s reforms – were being dropped.

Read the full story here from our political editor David Maddox:

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Scottish government minister says UK welfare reforms should be abandoned

05:00

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Holly Evans

The UK Government must abandon its “unfair” welfare reforms in the wake of its late climbdown on a key plank of the proposals, Scotland’s Social Justice Secretary has said.

Shirley-Anne Somerville was commenting after the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill passed its first legislative hurdle at Westminster.

Ahead of the crunch vote, Sir Keir Starmer ditched a mainstay of his welfare reform agenda as he battled to get the draft laws through the House of Commons.

Read the full article here:

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Keir Starmer must now take the road to political recovery

04:00

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Holly Evans

After a series of open revolts by his backbenchers – the last so powerful that it overwhelmed his government’s ability to withstand it – and having executed a variety of hand-brake turns, U-turns, and very nearly leaving the highway altogether, the prime minister finds himself at a fork in the road.

Behind him is a milestone that reads “2 July 2024. The first Labour election victory since 2005.” Ahead of him, two routes. One, bearing left, is a dead end, as he must surely realise. He cannot carry on as he has in recent weeks, relegated to being a back-seat passenger with a succession of backbench rebels grabbing at the wheel.

No prime minister can survive in such circumstances – as the recent history of the Conservative Party graphically reminds us. “Chaos and confusion” was how Sir Keir Starmer derided it in opposition, as the Johnson, Truss and Sunak administrations gyrated around like broken shopping trolleys. Now, against all expectations, the prime minister has suffered some unfortunate traffic collisions of his own.

Read our full editorial here:

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How Labour welfare vote rebellion compares to previous revolts by MPs

03:00

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Holly Evans

Keir Starmer has suffered a serious blow after dozens of his own MPs voted against his planned welfare reforms in Parliament.

The prime minister had been forced into two humiliating U-turns on the legislation in less than a week to head off a revolt that threatened to defeat his government on one of its flagship policies.

But how does this compare to previous revolts by politicians?

Read the full analysis here:

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The welfare reform vote: All you need to know

02:00

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Holly Evans

MPs have backed a Government proposal to reform welfare payments for sick and disabled people, but only after significant concessions saw much of Sir Keir Starmer’s plan abandoned.

Below, we take a look at what happened, what it means for personal independence payment (Pip) and universal credit, and what might come next.

Read the full breakdown here:

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Did my MP vote against Starmer’s plan to cut benefits?

01:00

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Holly Evans

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There is one clear winner in the welfare debate… and it isn’t Liz Kendall

Wednesday 2 July 2025 00:00

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Holly Evans

Poor Liz Kendall. No doubt Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves had irresistible reasons of state for not being on the front bench to support her during the second reading of her Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. But their absence rather underlined the loneliness of her task of beginning the very debate that posed the biggest challenge to the prime minister’s and his chancellor’s authority since they came to office a year ago: welfare cuts.

Nor was it that surprising that the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch pulled rank on her own work and pensions shadow secretary, Helen Whately, by leading for the opposition herself. Hers was hardly one of the great parliamentary performances, to put it mildly.

But sensing an easy wicket, Badenoch made a reasonable job of navigating between the (in reality, irreconcilable) goals of joining the Labour rebels in opposition to the welfare bill, and the fact that all her instincts would be for something far more draconian than even this government has so far contemplated.

Read the full analysis here:

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Government 'returning to the drawing board' for savings, says IFS

Tuesday 1 July 2025 23:24

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Holly Evans

Helen Miller, Deputy Director (and incoming Director) of IFS, said: “The government’s original reform was set to save £5.5 billion in the short run (by 2029–30) and double that in the long run when fully rolled out.

“Without reform to Personal Independence Payment, the watered down bill is not expected to deliver any savings over the next four years. This is because over this period the forecast savings from reducing the Universal Credit (UC) health element for new claimants (£1.7 billion in 2029–30) will be roughly offset by the cost of increasing the UC standard allowance

“.There is a pronounced, ongoing rise in spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending has risen from £36 billion in 2019–20 to £52 billion last year and, without reform, is forecast to rise to £66 billion by 2029–30.

“It is clear that the government should be looking at reforms in this area, at least to ensure that the system is fit for purpose. After today’s climbdown, the government is effectively returning to the drawing board.”

IFS say concessions have made tax rises 'increasingly likely'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 23:00

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Holly Evans

Changes to the Government’s welfare proposals have effectively halved Rachel Reeves’s “margin for error” against her fiscal targets and tax rises look “increasingly likely”, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.

IFS deputy director Helen Miller said concessions made to Labour rebels meant the Government’s plans were “not expected to deliver any savings over the next four years”.

Arguing the Government was “effectively returning to the drawing board” on welfare reform, she said Sir Stephen Timms’s review of personal independence payment “may lead to savings”, but suggested this was not certain.

She said: “Looking ahead to this autumn’s budget, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, can now expect forecast spending on social security to be higher than she had been planning back in March (when the Office for Budget Responsibility incorporated expected savings from these reforms into the fiscal forecast).

“The changes to this bill will effectively halve her margin of error against her main, and apparently ‘cast iron’, fiscal target, and that is before any potential downgrade to the underlying fiscal forecasts.

“Since departmental spending plans are now effectively locked in, and the government has already had to row back on planned cuts to pensioner benefits and working-age benefits, tax rises would look increasingly likely.

“This will doubtless intensify the speculation over the summer about which taxes may rise and by how much.”

Government will not make any savings as result of reforms by 2029

Tuesday 1 July 2025 21:50

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Holly Evans

The Government’s concessions mean it will not make any savings as a result of its welfare reforms by 2029/30, but could in the longer term, a think tank has said.

Resolution Foundation chief executive Ruth Curtice said: “The Government originally hoped to save £4.8 billion from its welfare reforms in the crucial year of 29/30.

“The upshot of all the concessions this week is it will now not make any net savings in that year.

“The changes to universal credit are nonetheless important for recipients and their work incentives, and are expected to save money in the longer term.”

Shadow pensions secretary calls out Labour 'incompetence'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 21:25

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Holly Evans

In a tweet on social media, shadow work and pensions Helen Whately said: “Unbelievable. Only a Labour Government could try to spend less and end up spending more.

“But I take no pleasure in their incompetence. The country still has to pay for it.”

It follows a tweet from the IFS which states that the last-minute concession could cost the government more money than it would have saved by pushing through the controversial welfare Bill.

Two-tier welfare system 'completely normal', disability minister says

Tuesday 1 July 2025 21:10

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Holly Evans

A two-tier welfare system is “completely normal”, disability minister Sir Stephen Timms told the Commons.

At the conclusion of the second reading debate, he said: “Let me just make a comment about the concern that has been expressed, which doesn’t arise now, given what I’ve announced, but about a two-tier system.

“And actually, a two-tier system is completely normal in social security. Pip (personal independence payment) replaced DLA (disability living allowance) in 2013 but half a million adults are still on DLA today. That doesn’t cause problems. Parallel running is normal, and actually it’s often the fairest way to make a major change.”

Labour MP decries 'shambolic' afternoon with policy made 'off the cuff'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:55

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Holly Evans

Labour’s Brian Leishman, who joined 48 of his colleagues in rebelling against the Government, said ministers should still withdraw the Bill despite it passing second reading.

The MP for Alloa and Grangemouth had also voted in favour of a cross-party amendment that would have stopped the Bill before second reading. He said: “Today was a prime example in how not to legislate.

“A shambolic afternoon with policy being made up off the cuff and on the notion of promises to come.

“The Government should do the honourable and decent thing and withdraw this dreadful Bill.”

Anti-poverty charity says reading was a 'chaotic and upsetting' process

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:40

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Holly Evans

A director at an anti-poverty charity has said Tuesday’s last-minute concession to the welfare bill was “the right thing to do”, but warned that “deep cuts” to Universal Credit still stood.

Helen Barnard, the director of policy, research and impact at Trussell, said: “The improvements to the bill agreed in recent days, including today’s last-minute pledge to scrap the four-point rule until a proper review is complete, are the right thing to do and will protect hundreds of thousands of disabled people from being forced into severe hardship.”

She said the bill should not have come before MPs and added: “This was a chaotic and upsetting process that could have been avoided had this Government stuck to its commitments to disabled people, and placed their voices at the heart of reform.

“Deep cuts to Universal Credit still stand, and when MPs look at the amended Bill, they must ensure disabled people are protected from severe hardship ahead of their final vote next week.

“More than three quarters of people claiming Universal Credit and disability benefits have gone without essentials in the last six months.”

Amnesty UK says disability rights 'aren't optional'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:22

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Holly Evans

Amnesty International UK described the cuts to disability benefits as “reckless” following the Commons vote.

The charity posted on X: “MPs have just voted for cuts to social security – with unwritten promises from the UK Government. This is reckless. Disability rights aren’t optional.

“Poverty is a political choice. This Govt chose it tonight. We’ll keep fighting until this cruel Bill is rejected completely.”

Lib Dems leader calls for government to scrap 'failed Bill'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:17

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Holly Evans

Sir Ed Davey urged the Government to scrap its welfare Bill and start again following Tuesday’s last-minute concessions.

The Liberal Democrat leader said: “This is no way to run a country.

“The Government should scrap this failed Bill altogether and work cross-party to actually bring down the welfare bill by getting people into work.”

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Government is 'shambolic' for 11th hour concessions, says another rebel MP

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:14

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Holly Evans

A Labour rebel said the Government was “shambolic” in its last-minute withdrawal of a clause on personal independence payments (Pip) in the Commons.

Ian Lavery (Blyth and Ashington) said he was stunned by the Government and wanted to know who had made the key decisions over Clause 5 being pulled. He voted in favour of an amendment that would have nixed the Bill before it had reached second reading and later broke the whip to vote against it.

Mr Lavery said: “It was disbelief. In somebody else’s speech, just intervening, and then give a ‘right here’s another concession, a massive concession’, and I’m thinking ‘what on earth?’ This will not have happened before. Utter shambles. And the reality is, what we should have done is listened to the people out there, we should have withdrawn the Bill, had a massive consultation, had a proper Timms review, but basically started tomorrow before any changes were proposed, listen to what people have got to say, and them recommendations from that could have been debated.”

Bill has been 'salami sliced bit-by-bit', Labour MP says

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:11

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Holly Evans

Labour MP Clive Efford, who voted against the Bill and co-signed an amendment that would have halted it at second reading, said the Government’s late minute U-turn was not a good look to the public.

The MP for Eltham and Chislehurst said: “I’ve never seen a Bill in front of the House being salami sliced bit-by-bit like this, in order to get it over the line. It’s definitely not the way to produce legislation.

“I mean I don’t know what disabled people looking on will have made of today’s process, but it didn’t put the Government in a good light.”

He said he was unsurprised the Government won the vote, but said the Government had been sent a message about the strength of opposition.

“The Government’s got a huge majority, it takes a lot to defeat. It’s nonetheless a significant number of us made a stand, which I mean needed to be done.”

Pensions secretary says Labour care 'passionately' about welfare reform

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:04

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Holly Evans

Liz Kendall said welfare reform was particularly “difficult” for Labour because the party cared “passionately” about the subject.

Asked what the main lessons were from the backbench rebellion over proposed cuts, she told broadcasters: “Welfare reform is always really difficult, perhaps especially for Labour governments.

“It’s something we care passionately about.”

But she added that MPs had shown significant support for “the principle of the welfare state” that those who can work should do so, while those who were unable should be protected.

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Lead rebel MP says disabled people will be 'incredibly distressed' at Bill

Tuesday 1 July 2025 20:01

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Holly Evans

Labour rebel Rachael Maskell (York Central) who tried to stop the Bill, and voted against the Government, said disabled people will have been worried watching the debate.

Ms Maskell said: “I’m obviously really sad that the Bill went through but I think my greatest sadness is that disabled people will have been looking on and seeing Parliament debating their futures, and I think they’ll be incredibly distressed when they see the way that Parliament was today.

“That’s the thing that tugs at me, because I think ultimately we’ve got huge responsibility to disabled people and they weren’t served well by the department today.”

Liz Kendall insists Labour is 100 per cent behind Starmer

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:57

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Holly Evans

Liz Kendall has insisted the Labour Party is “100 per cent behind” Sir Keir Starmer despite a major rebellion over welfare cuts, but acknowledged there were “lessons to learn”.

The Work and Pensions Secretary told broadcasters: “I think people are 100 per cent behind a Prime Minister that secured the first Labour Government in 14 years.

“They were elected on a mandate for change.

“There are definitely lessons to learn from this process.

“I certainly will do that, and I’m sure my colleagues will too.”

Earlier, she had expressed regret about the process the Bill had gone through, saying: “I wish we had got to this point in a different way.”

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan welcomes concession to welfare Bill

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:52

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Holly Evans

The Mayor of London has welcomed the scrapping of the Personal Independence Payment (Pip) section of the welfare bill.

Sir Sadiq Khan posted on X: “The Government u-turn on Pip is welcome.

“Disabled Londoners rely upon this vital safety net.”

Bill creates 'two-tiers of terminal illness' says charity leader

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:48

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Holly Evans

James Sanderson, chief executive at national palliative care and bereavement charity, Sue Ryder said: “This Bill appears to create two-tiers of terminal illness.

“While it is positive that people with 12 months or less to live are protected under the ‘special rules’, we need assurances from the Government for the people who have a longer prognosis.

“If your doctor has told you your illness will likely lead to your death, the system should offer you protection.

“The Government must support all terminally ill people with a prognosis of more than 12 months by including them in the Severe Conditions Criteria.

“Dying people should not be where the Government looks to make savings.”

49 Labour MPs attempt to block Bill from passing second reading

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:44

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Holly Evans

Mother of the House Diane Abbott, Stella Creasy (Walthamstow), Rebecca Long Bailey (Salford) and Brian Leishman (Alloa and Grangemouth) were among the 49 Labour MPs who unsuccessfully tried to block the welfare reform Bill at second reading.

Labour MP for York Central Rachael Maskell, who earlier tried to halt the Government’s welfare reforms using an amendment, also voted against the Bill.

MPs voted by 335 to 260, majority 75, in favour of the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, which has now cleared its first Commons hurdle.

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Citizens Advice calls for Bill to be paused and 'different approach' made

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:40

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Holly Evans

Dame Clare Moriarty, chief executive of Citizens Advice, said: “We’re pleased the government has finally listened to concerns and stepped back from rushing through devastating changes for disabled people.

“However, even with these last minute concessions, there is still more to do to protect people from hardship.

“This whole episode highlights the need for a completely different approach and we urge the government to pause this Bill.

“The government came into office promising to improve living standards – now they need to prove they mean it by changing course and creating a benefits system that actually supports people, rather than pushing them into poverty.”

Analysis: Trouble ahead as welfare bill slashes Starmer’s majority by more than half

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:35

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Holly Evans

The latest analysis from our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin:

In the end the government won the vote. But by just 75 votes, even after a second U-turn in just a matter of days.

Starmer has a nominal majority of more than twice that, 165.But the humiliating climbdown showed just how far the government felt it had to go to avoid defeat.

The PM will hope that the rebels, having secure two climbdowns, including one at the 11th hour, don’t get a taste for blood.

Watch: Starmer’s benefits cuts plan scrapes through Commons

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:32

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Holly Evans

Series of concessions to cause headache for Rachel Reeves

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:32

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Holly Evans

Sir Keir Starmer was forced to abandon a key plank of his welfare reform agenda to get the legislation through its first Commons test.

In a late climbdown as MPs prepared to vote, the Government shelved plans to restrict eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), with any changes now only coming after a review of the benefit.

The move will cause a headache for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has seen a forecast £4.8 billion saving from the welfare budget whittled away through a series of concessions, leaving her to seek extra money through spending cuts, tax hikes or borrowing to balance the books.

The decision to remove the Pip changes from the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill was announced just 90 minutes before MPs voted on Tuesday night.

The legislation cleared its first hurdle by 335 votes to 260, majority 75.

Starmer's welfare Bill passes second reading

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:27

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Holly Evans

Proposals to reform the welfare system have passed their first Commons hurdle, with MPs voting 335 to 260, majority 75, in favour of the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill at second reading.

Analysis: Rebellion suggests further troubles for Starmer

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:26

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Holly Evans

Analysis from our political correspondent Millie Cooke:

Rachael Maskell's amendment, which could have killed off the government's welfare bill, was defeated - but it was still backed by 42 Labour MPs.

While the government has managed to avoid a mass rebellion after it offered last minute concessions just 90 minutes before voting took place, the support among Labour MPs for the wrecking amendment indicates that there is still significant unhappiness with the legislation.

It also suggests that the prime minister could be braced for the largest rebellion of his premiership, if a similar number of MPs opt to vote against the bill.

MPs vote on government's welfare bill second reading

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:24

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Holly Evans

MPs are now voting on the government's welfare bill, and whether it should proceed to the next stage of its journey through parliament.

That's second reading, with the vote expected shortly.

Rebel amendment defeated in Commons

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:15

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Holly Evans

Rebel Labour MPs have lost their attempt to halt the Government’s welfare reforms, with the Commons voting 149 to 328, majority 179, against Rachael Maskell’s amendment.

MPs set to vote on rebel amendment to welfare Bill

Tuesday 1 July 2025 19:01

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Holly Evans

MPs are now voting on a rebel amendment tabled by the Labour MP Rachael Maskell that would kill the government's controversial welfare reforms bill.

'Stand on the right side of history', Labour MP urges others

Tuesday 1 July 2025 18:56

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Holly Evans

Labour MP Ian Byrne (Liverpool West Derby) urged MPs to “stand on the right side of history” and vote against the Welfare Bill, which he argued is being “re-written on the fly”.

He said: “Disabled people in my consistency tell me of feeling abandoned, of feeling punished and perhaps most heartbreakingly, of believing that a Labour government, their Labour government, after 14 years of Tory austerity and attacks, Covid and the cost of living crisis, will protect them. That belief is now being shattered.

“I ask myself, how can I look them in the eye and tell them the wrong? Because the truth is, this Bill is an absolute shambles. It’s immoral. It’s being rewritten on the fly. Policies affecting millions and millions of disabled lives are being made up as we go within this chamber within the last couple of hours.

“We’re being asked to vote on the bill as legislators, without full impact assessments, without proper scrutiny, without even knowing what the final version will be.

Shadow secretary says Bill has 'more or less disintegrated'

Tuesday 1 July 2025 18:53

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Holly Evans

Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately says the bill has "more or less disintegrated" during today’s debate.

"Describing this as chaos now seems like an understatement," she says.

"The government serving up a bill with next to nothing in it. They'd already U-turned once, it seems they can't even deliver a U-turn."

Labour’s rebel MPs have weakened Starmer – but the greatest damage is to themselves

Tuesday 1 July 2025 18:47

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Holly Evans

Divided parties do not win elections, and yet Labour cannot help itself. The damage done to Keir Starmer by the rebellion over welfare changes is not just the number of MPs who vote against the Labour whip today, but the revelation that so much of the party is in a state of boiling resentment against its own government.

It is not just MPs. Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan, the two elected Labour politicians with the largest democratic mandates of their own, oppose the disability benefits bill. And Survation polls of Labour members reveal that they rate Rachel Reeves, Liz Kendall and Starmer – the architects of the welfare changes – lowest among cabinet ministers.

Two-thirds of them think the party should “move to the left”, and more want a change of leadership before the next election (42 per cent) than want Starmer to stay on (40 per cent).

Read the full analysis from John Rentoul here: