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KUALA LUMPUR – Barisan Nasional (BN) and its linchpin Umno are on a short runway as they fiercely push for a general election to be held, ideally for them, by the fourth quarter of 2022 before Malaysia is hit by a possible economic recession in 2023.
This was made evident when Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob confirmed that Umno will not seek to extend the memorandum of political understanding (MoU) between the government and the Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition coalition.
While many could argue that the justification for an early election is due to BN’s massive win in the Johor and Melaka elections, several Umno senior leaders revealed that the “feel-good” factor is running on fumes as Malaysians are being battered by a multitude of socio-economic issues coming out of a prolonged and challenging pandemic.
Eroding confidence for BN
Major concerns for these leaders, especially those reviewing reports at BN’s election war room in Kedah, Penang, Perak, Melaka, Negri Sembilan, and Johor, show mixed public support for the coalition, with public confidence slowly eroding.
The major issue stems from BN being solely perceived as failing to manage the national economy, and tackling the rising cost of living and essential goods.
The usual tactic of shifting the blame to Perikatan Nasional’s ministers or PH’s past failures now produces diminishing returns as the public is more interested in effective solutions.
“In April, from the data that we have, we are confident of securing between 42% to 48% of total votes, if the election is held by the third quarter of the year.
“Then inflation hits. The same goes for the rising cost of living and overall decrease in the quality of life, but the saving grace is that the government has disbursed nearly RM80 billion in subsidies. But even we know this is not sustainable.
If they keep moving the goalposts for the election, then our fear is that Umno and BN will not have a solid narrative to rely on. So ideally, we need to do it immediately,” said a senior Umno leader familiar with the party’s general election effort.
Requesting anonymity, the party veteran went on to say that the projected votes are enough for BN to secure at least a simple majority or 120 parliamentary seats while leveraging a fractured opposition bloc.
BN has also repeatedly stated it is only open to a power-sharing agreement post-election, preferably being the coalition commanding the highest number of seats.
Possible hyperinflation next year another risk factor for BN
The matter is made worse when most economic indicators show that the global market is likely to face a recession or even hyperinflation as early as Q1 of 2023, which will put the federal government, of which BN is a part, under immense pressure to revitalise an already battered national economy.
While the rumour mills have been rife with subversive elements directing BN and Umno to push for an early election, senior coalition members simply point to the “invisible hands” of the economy instead.
Another senior Umno leader said BN would commit “political suicide” if it is to head into an election when Malaysians have bigger priorities now, with the rakyat simply trying to survive during an economic downturn.
“We do not know what will happen in the next six months to the global economy, and calling an election then would be too late. It is like having an election during wartime.
BN will not have any room to manoeuvre, and the government of the day will be tied down with firefighting. When that happens, rarely do any problems get solved.”
The Umno man also confirmed that the preparation of his party’s main election machinery platform, known as Jalinan Rakyat, has been completed, at least in the peninsula.
“The challenge now is integrating efforts at the BN level. This is still an ongoing effort, as seat negotiations with MIC and MCA are still being discussed,” he said.
Umno remains split internally
Internally, Umno is also facing a constant struggle with maintaining party discipline as factionalism deepens, with the most obvious camps being between front bench ministers touted to support prime minister Ismail Sabri and the backbenchers supposedly being in line with president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
While there are rumours of other factions propping up elected party leaders, these two factions hold the most bargaining power at the moment.
However, Ismail Sabri, who is only a party vice-president, has little bearing on seat negotiations within the coalition, with the final say falling at Zahid’s feet.
The perception of a tug of war between the two personalities threatens the fragile peace within the party, according to several insiders.
From Zahid’s perspective, he has to keep up with the momentum. You have to give him props. He knows that Umno is good at one thing and one thing only – winning elections.
“So all these massive preparations cannot be for nothing. He wants everyone to run headlong in the same direction because this way, you are less likely to talk about party politics and just focus on winning,” said a senior party leader attached to its Kuala Lumpur chapter.
Umno had recently voted to postpone its party polls from being held this year, fearing a free-for-all brawl that will lead to chaos within the organisation.
“This is exactly what we want to avoid. It is dangerous when election machinery is idle.
The longer we wait, the more likely they will question every party decision, every piece of statement, or even the validity or credibility of leaders.
“PKR and DAP have largely solved this problem because they have concluded their party polls.
“For the time being, it is beneficial for Umno to postpone the party polls, but if we keep waiting, then it is likely that this will be a huge problem down the line if we do not head into the general election first,” said the same Umno party leader. – The Vibes, August 1, 2022