COFFEE prices in commercial coffee establishments and supermarkets are expected to increase in December this year up to the first quarter of next year due to severe global supply shortages, low local harvest yields, and rising operational expenses.
Speaking at the sidelines of the 2nd Philippine Coffee Sustainability Congress in Makati on Thursday, Philippine Coffee Board Inc. (PCBI) Director Ceasario Rex Kapunan indicated that commercial establishments are facing heavy price pressures that will likely be passed on to consumers by year-end.
"I think, personally, by December [this year], commercial establishments may raise prices," Kapunan told reporters.
Kapunan said fuel costs, labor costs, the recent wage increase, and delayed coffee shipments may possibly trigger a price hike on coffee in establishments and supermarkets. He expects the price adjustments will "stretch to Q1 next year."
The PCBI director said price hikes are also expected to hit retail store items or café beverages.
"It can be both but again, everyone is evolving. Coffee is not stagnant," Kapunan said.
The price hikes are largely driven by the scarcity and high cost of imported beans, which is pushing local roasters and café owners to reformulate their main espresso blends.
Kapunan noted that Brazil beans have become expensive and hard to source, with even large traders unable to secure stocks. This has pushed shops to look for local beans as alternatives.
He added that while consumers want to support local, businesses must balance those ideals with economic realities.
"Reformulate, yes. If you talk to most café owners and roasters now, I think the majority of us have reformulated in the last three years, our main blend has Brazil in it," Kapunan explained.
"Brazil beans now are, number one, expensive. Number two, not available. So we're reformulating," he added.
According to the PCBI director, imported Brazilian beans fetch around P650 per kilo, while international Arabica ranges from P700 to P750 per kilo. Domestic coffee beans carry an even higher price tag, with Benguet Arabica trading between P750 and P900 per kilo.
"Benguet is, correct me if I'm wrong, it's around P750 to P900 per kilo but again, it's local. Well, it's good quality also but it's more expensive because for multiple reasons," Kapunan said.
Price pressures on coffee are worsened by low harvests due to Super El Niño and by inventory hoarding by those with capital, leaving buyers who order per batch without supply.
Kapunan noted that with prices rising across the board except for minimum wage and consumer spending power, businesses are left struggling to find a balance.
Despite expected price hikes on coffee, Kapunan remains confident about consumer demand, noting that coffee remains an accessible luxury that buyers will continue to prioritize.
"Coffee is technically really addictive. It's a legal addiction. I would go forward and say it's a bit of a drug. But again, it's a regulated and approved drug. So people are really willing to spend for coffee," he said.
Kapunan noted that consumer habits are shifting toward specialized home setups, saying that while there were only a handful of coffee roasters in the Philippines five years ago, there are now many — with small cafes having their own roasters, homebrewers roasting their own beans, and many former café customers now brewing at home. CHYNNA GRACE ONG
