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RESIDENTS in northern Peninsular Malaysia, particularly in Kedah, Perlis, and Kelantan, have been experiencing unusually hot and dry conditions, prompting public speculation that El Niño is to blame.
However, experts have emphasised that these temperatures are consistent with Malaysia’s seasonal weather patterns as the northeast monsoon approaches its conclusion.
Professor Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences, told Sinar Daily today that such conditions are typical during this transitional period.
“The skies tend to be clear, resulting in intense solar radiation. This leads to higher daytime temperatures, but cooler nights due to the lack of cloud cover,” he said.
Azizan highlighted that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, meaning it is not influencing the ongoing heatwave.
“We are not in an El Niño phase yet; we are still ENSO-neutral. Therefore, we are not experiencing the drier conditions typically associated with El Niño,” he added.
Instead, the current heat is primarily caused by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a regional atmospheric phenomenon that acts like a moving “rain switch.”
“When the MJO is in a wet phase, it brings clouds and rain; when it shifts to a dry phase, skies become clearer and temperatures rise,” he explained. Azizan noted that the dry phase is expected to persist until around April 5.
The expert also pointed out that other regional climate indicators support an imminent shift towards wetter conditions.
“At present, the Indian Ocean Dipole is negative, so more rainfall is expected. With neutral ENSO and a negative IOD, April is likely to be wetter, with increased cloud cover, which is not conducive to high maximum temperatures,” he said.
Azizan expressed confidence that the current heatwave will subside as the inter-monsoon period begins in April, bringing more rainfall and lower temperatures, particularly along the west coast.
He stressed that these patterns are not unusual, as the final phase of the northeast monsoon often brings reduced rainfall to northern and north-western parts of the peninsula due to geographical and wind factors.
Authorities have advised residents to take precautions during the hot spell, including staying hydrated, limiting outdoor activities during peak afternoon hours, wearing suitable clothing, and conserving water, as prolonged dry conditions may strain water supplies and increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Internet tags: Malaysia Weather, Heatwave, Madden-Julian Oscillation, ENSO Neutral, Northeast Monsoon, Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, Climate Update, Indian Ocean Dipole, Seasonal Weather, Inter-Monsoon Period, Public Health, Water Conservation, Extreme Temperatures, Tropical Weather Patterns - March 26, 2026
